Crawford's misread could have been costly

Brandon Crawford had a bit of atoning to do as he sprinted home with the game-winning run in Team USA's 2-1 win against Japan in the World Baseball Classic semifinals on Tuesday night.
After what could have been a costly gaffe committed the play before, Crawford needed some good fortune to score the deciding run on Adam Jones' groundout to third, which he did after the ball was bobbled by Nobuhiro Matsuda.
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It worked out for Crawford, whose run was responsible for sending the U.S. to its first World Baseball Classic final, tonight against Puerto Rico at 9 ET at Dodger Stadium. Fans can watch on MLB.TV or MLB Network.
On Jones' eighth-inning groundout, Crawford broke from third base on what is called a contact play, which is when the runner takes off no matter where the ball is hit. With one out, as there was in this situation, the runner also has the option of waiting to see if the batted ball gets through the infield.
But Crawford broke on contact, which might have been his way of attempting to make up for a baserunning blunder of sorts on the previous play. Crawford was only on third because of a questionable read he made from first on an Ian Kinsler double the play before, a ball Kinsler sent to the left-center-field wall that Crawford likely scores on in most situations.

We can break the whole sequence down using Statcast™.
With the score tied at 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth, Crawford lined a single with an exit velocity of 107.3 mph, according to Statcast™, to right off Japanese reliever Kodai Senga. Kinsler then crushed a double to left-center, a drive that had a zero percent catch probability according to Statcast™. A zero percent catch probability means that based on distance needed and opportunity time, the outfielders had no chance of catching it. In this case, Japan center fielder Shoga Akiyama was the closest player to the ball, and he would have needed to cover 115 feet in 5.0 seconds to snag it.
But Crawford didn't take off immediately from first, implying he misread the ball off the bat. Statcast™ confirms this. Crawford had a 13-foot secondary lead off first base, which means he had only 77 feet to run to get to second, and 90 more to get to third. Nonetheless, it still took him slightly longer to go first to second (3.99 seconds) than from second to third (3.96) despite a 13-foot "head start."
The wet conditions at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, as well as Crawford's somewhat awkward turn around the second-base bag, may have also played a factor. But that it took him the same amount of time to travel two significantly different distances implies Crawford hesitated initially.

"I knew he hit well, it looked like it was in the gap," Crawford said. "I just didn't know how well it was going to carry. The ball had been holding up a little bit. Their second baseman hit the ball out, but I wasn't sure how well it was going to carry and they played it perfectly off the wall. Even if I was going off the bat, I don't know if I had a shot at home."
Once at third, Crawford broke on contact and made it home in 3.64 seconds, though he would have likely been out had Matsuda handled the grounder cleanly.
Matsuda recovered in time to throw Jones out at first, but his initial misplay eliminated any chance of pegging the go-ahead run down at home.
"It was one of those plays where you need to make them make the play and fortunately, maybe with these wet conditions it helped out, he bobbled a little bit. I was probably dead if he catches it clean," Crawford said. "But that's what you do in that situation where it's late and we're not scoring a lot of runs and you have to make them make a play, and fortunately they didn't."
The World Baseball Classic concludes tonight. In the U.S., games air live exclusively in English on MLB Network and on an authenticated basis via MLBNetwork.com/watch, while ESPN Deportes and WatchESPN provide the exclusive Spanish-language coverage. MLB.TV Premium subscribers in the U.S. have access to watch every tournament game live on any of the streaming service's 400-plus supported devices. The tournament is being distributed internationally across all forms of television, internet, mobile and radio in territories excluding the U.S., Puerto Rico and Japan. Get tickets for the championship game at Dodger Stadium, while complete coverage -- including schedules, video, stats and gear -- is available at WorldBaseballClassic.com.