Inbox: What are odds of a Bumgarner trade?

What are the odds of Madison Bumgarner being traded?
-- Jeremy S., Jersey City, N.J.
I think they're slimmer now than they appeared to be a few months ago. As my colleague Mark Feinsand recently reported, the Giants seem more likely to hold on to Bumgarner this offseason, though they could ultimately choose to part with him before the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline.

Bumgarner, who will earn $12 million next year in his final season before free agency, posted a 3.26 ERA over 129 2/3 innings in 21 starts in 2018, but some of his peripheral numbers showed troubling trends that might have depressed his trade value this winter. Still, I think Bumgarner will have an opportunity to assuage some of those concerns in '19. After all, he appeared primed for yet another dominant season last year before a line drive fractured his left hand in the final week of Spring Training.
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"He's young. He's strong. He's smart. He has ability to adjust," manager Bruce Bochy said at the Winter Meetings earlier this month. "So I'm not going to be surprised if he's done something to tweak his delivery, whatever. Not that I think he needs to. This guy, he's still really, really good."
Any rumblings of the Giants looking to add Bryce Harper?
-- Matt K., Indianapolis, Ind.
While the Giants are in search of outfield help, I don't think they're considering making a serious run at Harper right now. San Francisco possess the resources to make that type of high-profile signing, especially after managing to stay under the luxury-tax threshold in 2018, but such a move would be out of character for new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who never gave out a contract that exceeded $100 million as general manager of the Dodgers. The Phillies and the White Sox seem to be the front-runners for Harper, who will likely be aiming to top Giancarlo Stanton's record-setting 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins in '14.
It's a long offseason, though, so perhaps things will change in the coming months.

Is there any possibility that Buster Posey becomes our starting first baseman in 2019 and beyond? If the Giants want Posey to play for another four to five years, he can't keep catching. Maybe Posey moves to first and we let Aramis Garcia and Trevor Brown handle the catching duties?
-- Joaquin M., Clovis, Calif.
I think Posey is unlikely to become the Giants' starting first baseman as long as Brandon Belt is on the roster. Belt has reportedly drawn interest from other teams, but moving him could be difficult -- he's owed $48 million over the next three seasons, and he also has a partial no-trade clause that allows him to block a deal to 10 teams. Bochy said that he expects Posey to play a little more first base in 2019, as the Giants plan to be cautious with his catching workload following major hip surgery.
What are the odds of the Giants landing Yusei Kikuchi?
-- @nmbaseball52
I think Kikuchi is certainly on the Giants' radar. Zaidi said the club has scouted the Japanese left-hander extensively, and San Francisco would like to improve its rotation depth this offseason. Not much is known about Kikuchi's preferences at this point, though the Giants could be appealing as a West Coast destination with a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Zaidi has experience working with Japanese pitchers, as he was with the Dodgers when they signed Kenta Maeda, so that could also prove helpful in the recruitment process.