4 paths for the Yankees to take from here
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On Sunday morning, Yankee manager Aaron Boone said that Gio Urshela was expected to be the starting shortstop, adding that “the landscape could change along the way.”
No kidding, Aaron. Twelve hours later, the Yankees reshaped their lineup, sending Urshela and catcher Gary Sánchez to the Twins in a blockbuster move that brought third baseman Josh Donaldson, shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Bronx. Of the eight players who received the most plate appearances for the 2021 Yankees, four of them -- adding Rougned Odor and Brett Gardner to Sánchez and Urshela -- are gone. This is going to be a very different Yankee roster, though clearly an improved one.
But when we say different, we mean that even from what you see today, because for all the moves … this still feels like a work-in-progress, at least to us, with a roster that is talented but maybe ill-fitting.
Consider, if you will, the issues the Yankees still have.
• They’re extremely right-handed. Just like last year! Half the reason the Yankees went out to add Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo is that they were heavily right-handed, but with Rizzo and Gardner unsigned, and Odor off to Baltimore, they’re back in the same spot. As things stand, Gallo is the only regular lefty starter in the lineup. The unproven Rortvedt, who might be able to match Giancarlo Stanton in the weight room, also swings lefty, and Aaron Hicks, who missed nearly all of 2021 with a wrist injury, is a switch-hitter. That's it.
• They have two righty first basemen. With Donaldson at third, and Gleyber Torres at second, DJ LeMahieu would seem to now be the first baseman. Maybe you can look past his unimpressive 2021 (97 OPS+), given we know he was dealing with hernia issues. But Luke Voit, forever the subject of trade rumors, is still around, coming off an injury-plagued season of his own, and he’s not that far away from posting a 135 OPS+ across 2019-’20. This isn’t really a platoon situation that would work out.
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• They haven’t gone high-end at shortstop. There’s a reason so many Yankee fans wanted Corey Seager before he signed with Texas, and that’s because a lefty-swinging shortstop star would have solved so many problems. That didn’t happen, obviously, and Marcus Semien and Javier Báez are off the board as well. Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain from the “big five” group of shortstops, though there’s concern about blocking top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.
Kiner-Falefa seems happy to be a Yankee, which is nice, and he’s a better defender than Torres was at shortstop. But will Yankee fans be happy with a below-average bat (85 OPS+ in 2021, 81 OPS+ career) and a glove that, according to Statcast metrics, graded out much better at third base (+19 Outs Above Average, career) than it did at shortstop (-6 OAA)? It’s certainly a step up from starting Andrew Velazquez in a Wild Card Game, as they did last fall.
• They could use another starting pitcher. Since the big Twins trade was entirely full of position players, this part gets overlooked a bit, but it’s worth noting that the rotation is a little thin on depth. Gerrit Cole is the ace, of course, and Jordan Montgomery is a quietly solid mid-rotation starter. So is Jameson Taillon, though he’s coming off ankle surgery and may be slowed entering 2022. Luis Severino and Domingo Germán have each hit high levels in the not-distant past, but have had nothing but issues since. How much are you counting on from Nestor Cortes Jr., Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Deivi García? There’s talent here, but it feels one veteran arm short.
At the risk of focusing on the weaknesses and not the strengths -- and there are plenty of strengths, from Donaldson joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gallo, to one of the best pitchers alive in Cole, to what is almost always a very strong bullpen -- there’s still a lot to do here. What should they do next? What can they do? Here are four different paths.
1) Do nothing.
This is the easiest option, so even if it’s the least likely, it’s still an option. It’s not like the Yankees wouldn’t be good, of course. FanGraphs has the Yankees as leading the sport in projected WAR, and while we don’t quite buy that positioning, they’re inarguably a very good roster. With the extra playoff spot in the American League, you don’t have to squint too hard to see them deciding to see how this new-look lineup fares, then make trades to address weaknesses in July.
2) Go sign one of the lefty free agent first basemen, trade Voit.
There’s small and large versions of this, of course. The easy option is to sign Rizzo, who reportedly would love to return to the Bronx. Though his superstar prime seems to be long gone, he’s still a somewhat above-average lefty hitter with a solid glove, and he could be had on a short-term deal. Do that, trade Voit to Cleveland or Milwaukee or somewhere who could use a 1B/DH bat, and call it a winter. Exciting? Not really. Reasonable? Sure.
The far more interesting version of this is to sign Freddie Freeman, who is considerably better at this point than Rizzo, and will command a contract something like five times as large, though that may be less likely after New York picked up the entirety of Donaldson's remaining deal.
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3) Go sign one of the big-ticket shortstops, still trade Voit.
Correa is still out there. Story is still out there. Kiner-Falefa is a useful player, but he’s hardly a roadblock to either one of them, and his versatility would be a boon to an infield that has an injury-prone third baseman and a second baseman who has a million questions yet to answer. Does this block Volpe and Peraza? Sure, probably. But maybe not, too, if a deal for Correa comes with regular opt-outs, as has become the style.
From our point of view, that -- the idea of “blocking” a prospect -- is a problem that really isn’t one. Remember: A) prospects often take longer to develop than you’d like, and B) this is a team looking to win right now, this season, and Correa or Story do a ton more in that regard than Volpe or Peraza, and C) if you have the problem of “too many good shortstops” someday, well, that’s an extremely good problem to have. Someone can move to second or third. Someone can be traded for a high return. It’s fine. It’s good.
In this scenario, since Kiner-Falefa can fill in at third base when Donaldson needs a break, LeMahieu can play mostly first base (or second if Torres doesn’t rebound), leaving Voit again as a trade candidate.
4) Make the big trade with Oakland.
We don’t just mean trading for Matt Olson, because he's already been traded to Atlanta. We mean the big trade, which means also trying to acquire catcher Sean Murphy and/or a starter like Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea. Maybe you can’t do that without including Volpe, which the Yankees clearly do not want to do. But maybe the presence of Volpe means that moving Peraza or fellow shortstop prospect Trey Sweeney (presumably along with ready-now pitching like Gil, Garcia, Schmidt, etc.) is more palatable, too.
There are other pie-in-the-sky versions of this, too, depending on how far detached from reality you choose to be. Maybe the Cubs' Willson Contreras is still an option to improve catching offense. Maybe there’s a match with the Marlins to get a pitcher for the bat Miami so badly needs. Maybe you’d like to see Luis Castillo and Joey Votto extracted from rebuilding Cincinnati?
It goes without saying that this last idea is pretty unlikely to happen, but realize what the AL East looks like, that the Blue Jays just won 91 games, finished fourth, and have since added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi to replace Robbie Ray. The Yankees, compared to most teams, are good enough. In this town, in this division, good enough is not good enough.