Reasons for optimism -- and pause -- for the rest of Reds' season

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

PITTSBURGH -- The exact halfway point of the season came for the Reds on Saturday, and despite winning a series at Pittsburgh, it's safe to say the results and a 39-44 record haven't been what was expected.

For a while, things were looking good. At the end of April, the Reds were 20-11 and tied for the second-best record in the Major Leagues. Since the start of May, their 19-33 record is the worst in baseball.

“You’re hoping that you’re in a playoff spot and entrenched there, but we’re not," president of baseball operations Nick Krall said. "We’ve got to figure out how to make up ground and win some more games.”

The good news is there is still almost an entire half of the season left. While the Reds are last in the National League Central and 12 1/2 games behind the first-place Brewers, they are still 5 games back in a muddled NL Wild Card mix.

But here's a dose of reality: Without marked improvement in the next month, the club could be primed for selling before the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

“I think we have to continue to make this organization the best we can possibly make it. If that’s the case, sure," Krall said. "But I don’t want to look at that. We’re going to play this all the way to the wire, and we’ll have to make some decisions. Hopefully we’re in a spot where we can be buyers and make a run for the postseason.”

Which way might it go for the Reds? Let's look at reasons for optimism and for skepticism.

Reasons for optimism

Injured players returning

Shortstop Elly De La Cruz missed three weeks with a right hamstring strain and returned June 23. Closer Emilio Pagán, who strained his left hamstring on May 5, is poised to return soon. Starting pitcher Hunter Greene, out since March when bone chips were removed from his right elbow, completed a rehab assignment and should also return this week. Missing two of their best players and their closer were huge blows.

The rotation has been solid lately

While Chase Burns has been spectacular throughout, Andrew Abbott got off to a rough start and had a 6.59 ERA over his first six starts. Over his last 11 starts, Abbott is 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and five quality starts. Brady Singer has shown some improvement, including a scoreless seven-inning no-decision on June 22 vs. the Brewers. Nick Lodolo, who didn't make his 2026 debut until May because of a blister, had some rough early starts but has been better.

“I think our starting pitching has started to turn a corner," Krall said. "I think it’s helping our bullpen. The last couple of weeks, our pitching staff has done a good job.”

Stewart and Bleday having big seasons

Rookie Sal Stewart is leading the club in home runs (15) and RBIs (57) and has demonstrated dependability to come through in big moments. JJ Bleday started the season at Triple-A Louisville and has been one of the Reds' best hitters since his April 26 recall, with 13 homers.

Reasons for skepticism

Will Burns run out of innings?

Burns has demonstrated he's worthy of being an All-Star with his line of 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 112 strikeouts, but as he's only in his second professional season, he could run into an innings limit. The 23-year-old had 109 1/3 innings combined in the Majors and Minors in 2025. Now at 91 2/3 innings, it would seem highly likely he will hit a limit before the end of the season.

“I think we’re just trying to figure that out as he goes," Krall said. "It’s hard to plan at this point. You’re trying to win every game possible. As it gets to that point, we’ll have to think about it. Hunter’s coming back, maybe we can rework the rotation a little bit. I think we’re going to have a lot of conversations.”

Not enough offense

While Stewart, Bleday and De La Cruz have done well, too many hitters are having subpar seasons, and the overall offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in multiple categories, namely runs and OPS. Eugenio Suárez, who won a game for the Reds Saturday with his homer, has only eight after he had 31 before the All-Star break last season. Tyler Stephenson and Matt McLain have yet to enjoy a sustained upswing. Ke'Bryan Hayes had a .420 OPS before he went on the injured list in May (back), which won't be good enough to stay in the lineup despite his Gold Glove defense at third base.

Injuries keep piling up

While some important guys are back, others are missing. High-leverage relievers Tony Santillan (left oblique) and Graham Ashcraft (right UCL sprain) will be on the injured list for a big chunk of the second half. Center fielder Blake Dunn (right elbow) joined the IL on Sunday.