Will Yordan win the Triple Crown? Here's where the race stands

Yordan Alvarez’s incredible season at the plate is not only willing the Astros toward playoff contention after a rough start, but it has him in position for a historic accomplishment -- and potentially his first MVP honors.

After whacking his MLB-leading 34th home run Wednesday, Alvarez is pushing for the Triple Crown in the AL with a shot at the overall mark. He’d become the first Triple Crown winner (leader in batting average, home runs and RBIs) in any league since Miguel Cabrera did it for the Tigers in 2012, while an MLB-wide Triple Crown hasn’t happened since Mickey Mantle in 1956.

Entering Thursday (July 23), Alvarez is the first AL or NL player to lead his league in all three Triple Crown categories this late in a season since Aaron Judge on Sept. 28, 2022, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Judge finished that season first overall in homers and tied for first in RBIs, but Luis Arraez grabbed the AL batting title by a mere five points.

Alvarez may not want to think about the Triple Crown much in the middle of a postseason chase (“I’m just focused right now on playing ball,” he said Wednesday), but this type of continued dominance is forcing our hand.

Let’s dive into Air Yordan’s chances at making history.

Batting average (AL leaders)

1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros -- .328
2. Yandy Díaz, Rays -- .308
3. Ernie Clement, Blue Jays -- .297

NL leader: Otto Lopez, Marlins -- .332

Entering July, Díaz held a 20-point lead over Alvarez in this metric. But Díaz has cooled significantly this month at .205, while Alvarez has only taken off at .397. The underlying data mostly matches this separation, too, with Alvarez carrying a .335 expected batting average this month and Díaz at a .243 xBA. Alvarez’s worst month this year by xBA was .305, so there’s no sign he’ll slow down anytime soon.

Lopez is the biggest competition in capturing the MLB-wide batting average lead, with honorable mentions to the Giants’ Arraez (.320) and the Pirates’ Nick Gonzales (.313). Lopez doesn’t have nearly the power Alvarez does, but he keeps finding gaps in his remarkable All-Star season. A .366 batting average on balls in play, though, could possibly signal some good fortune for the Miami shortstop. Alvarez has a .332 BABIP.

Home runs (AL leaders)

1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros -- 34
2. Ben Rice, Yankees -- 30
3. Junior Caminero, Rays -- 29

NL leader: Kyle Schwarber, Phillies -- 33

Rice and Caminero have been on a tear, with seven and six home runs in July, respectively. Yet they’re still trailing Alvarez’s pace, with the Houston slugger launching eight times this month. He hasn’t hit fewer than six in a full calendar month in 2026, so it’s going to take some work for anyone in the AL to dethrone him.

Schwarber has held the MLB lead in dingers at various times this year, though he’s gone cold in July with just three. But no one is counting Schwarbs out after 56 bombs a season ago, 26 of which came after the All-Star break.

Don’t discount the Rockies’ Hunter Goodman, either, in the league-wide chase. He sits at 31 entering Thursday and plays his home games at altitude (for now … there’s speculation he could be a marquee Trade Deadline acquisition).

Runs batted in (AL leaders)

1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros -- 77
2. Ben Rice, Yankees -- 71
3. Pete Alonso, Orioles -- 66

NL leader: CJ Abrams, Nationals/Jordan Walker, Cardinals -- 76

Much like the other two prongs, Alvarez carries a relatively comfortable lead among his American League peers in RBIs. Rice is the only real challenger at this point, but his Yankees have struggled overall with 4.1 runs per game since June 1.

Abrams, in particular, should challenge for the MLB lead by season’s end. The Nationals have a 24-run lead over the Pirates in total runs scored this season, so Abrams is getting plenty of opportunities to drive his teammates in.

Perhaps most impressively? Alvarez has only seen 95 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, compared to Abrams’ 113 and Walker’s 133. That’s a testament to just how good Alvarez has been in those situations, carrying an MLB-best 1.370 OPS.

Conclusion: Alvarez has the AL Triple Crown squarely within his reach.

There’s time, of course. But as things stand today and assuming good health, it would likely be more surprising than not to see someone surpass him in any of the three statistics. He’s simply been that good -- and that consistent -- all year. Rice has heated back up after a slow June, but he has ground to make up in homers and RBIs.

The MLB crown will be more difficult, though by no means impossible. Lopez’s .323 average in July entering Thursday would actually be his lowest of any full month this year, so he’ll be tough to catch. And Abrams and Schwarber are already hot on Alvarez’s tail in the other two stats.

So, brace yourself for a photo finish. An incredible baseball feat could happen for the first time in 14 years -- and maybe for the first time in 70.