Inbox: Next year's breakout prospect

The final game of the Minor League season should be fun. Saturday's Triple-A National Championship game in Las Vegas will feature four Top 100 Prospects: Dodgers outfielders Josue De Paula and Mike Sirota (Oklahoma City Comets) and Nationals shortstop Seaver King and right-hander Jarlin Susana (Rochester Red Wings). I'm looking forward to doing the MLB Network broadcast (7 p.m. PT/10 p.m. ET) with Sande Charles and Tyler Maun.

But first, let's answer some of your prospect questions ...

The fourth annual MiLB Awards Show will air on MLB Network on Monday at 8 p.m. ET, with three Top 100 Prospects vying for Breakout Player of the Year honors: outfielder Eric Hartman (Braves) and right-handers Ramon Marquez (Giants) and Nolan Perry (Blue Jays). Blah Bla asks a lot of good questions but this one may have his highest degree of difficulty ever, because I didn't see Hartman, Marquez or Perry coming at all.

But I'll give it my best shot. Anyone who hasn't made his pro debut doesn't qualify because there's a separate award for that. Not considering anyone who's currently on the Top 100 or has been in the past, I came up with three position players: outfielder Ethan Conrad (Cubs), shortstop Albert Fermín (Astros) and catcher Jirvin Morillo (Reds).

Shoulder surgery and back issues meant that Conrad didn't make his pro debut until nearly a year after Chicago selected him with the 17th overall pick in the 2025 Draft. He played just 36 games between three levels this summer, so he hasn't gotten much of a chance to show off his advanced bat to go with solid raw power and speed.

Fermín hails from the same town in the Dominican Republic (Samaná) as Hanley Ramírez and has a projectable frame reminiscent of the three-time All-Star in his younger days. Signed for $2,147,500 in January, Fermín is a precocious switch-hitter with offensive tools similar to Conrad's. He batted .311/.485/.507 with six homers and 24 steals in 49 games while breaking into pro ball in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League.

Morillo hits balls harder and launches them in the air more easily than most teenagers, and he's also quite selective. Those traits helped him lead the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League in homers (13) while ranking second in slugging (.652) and third in OPS (1.101) and walks (44), and he continued to thrive after a late-season promotion to Single-A. He does come with swing-and-miss concerns and his defense behind the plate needs a lot of polish, yet his offensive upside is quite intriguing.

Stephen asked this fun question a year ago and I'm glad he brought it back again. Jonathan Mayo and I are both excited about getting back to the Arizona Fall League and predicted some of the awards on the Sept. 15 Pipeline Podcast.

I projected White Sox third baseman/outfielder Caleb Bonemer as the Fall League MVP, while Jonathan went with Orioles outfielder Ike Irish. Royals left-hander Justin Lamkin was my choice for Pitcher of the Year and Jonathan opted for Diamondbacks right-hander Patrick Forbes. My Breakout Player of the Year pick (Brewers outfielder Braylon Payne, who had 28 homers and 25 steals between High-A and Double-A) wasn't nearly as bold as Jonathan's (Mets middle infielder Bruin Agbayani).

As for the other awards, I'll take the easy way out and pick the AFL's top-rated prospect (Dodgers outfielder Eduardo Quintero) as Offensive Player of the Year. The Orioles' Vance Honeycutt may be the best outfielder in the Minors, so he gets the nod for Defensive Player of the Year. Give me a sleeper for Reliever of the Year: Diamondbacks left-hander Joe Ariola, who struck out 46 percent of the batters he faced in his pro debut.

Though the Cubs paid Hartshorn a sixth-round-record $2 million bonus when they drafted him out of high school powerhouse Orange (Calif.) Lutheran in 2025, neither they nor anyone else could have expected his pro debut. He impressed with unusually good swing decisions and physicality for a 19-year-old while advancing from Single-A to Double-A, slashing a combined .284/.407/.518 with 23 homers and 17 steals in 125 games. He scored well in offensive metrics across the board and vaulted to No. 36 on the Top 100.

All that said, Hartshorn will enter next season at age 20 and with five games of Double-A experience (counting the playoffs). In the last four decades, only two position players 20 or younger have appeared for the Cubs. Starlin Castro was their everyday shortstop in 2010 and Corey Patterson got into 11 games at the end of 2000.

It's not impossible that Hartshorn will play in Chicago next year, considering that he's a corner outfielder and big league starters Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are pending free agents, but it's highly unlikely. It's more realistic to envision him spending at least half the year in Double-A and making his way to Triple-A before season's end.

I have no idea what to expect from Honeycutt. The 22nd overall pick in the 2024 Draft by the Orioles, he's one of the most physically talented players in the Minors but has had trouble making contact since his college days at North Carolina. Through mid-August, he was a career .175/.285/.298 hitter with a 41 percent strikeout rate in 177 pro games -- and then he batted .288/.381/.616 with a 25 percent K rate in 20 contests following a promotion to Double-A.

With well-above-average raw power and speed to go with impeccable defense in center field, Honeycutt will be a valuable big league player if he can become even a below-average hitter. Was his Double-A performance the result of repeatable adjustments or just a small sample size aberration? Baltimore sent him to the Fall League to get a little more evidence as to whether those results might be sustainable.