Who are the top three MLB Draft prospects?

Even the most cynical among us can’t help but feel optimistic this time of year, right? It’s the start of a new Major League season, with the Minor League season right around the corner. A large number of top prospects made Opening Day rosters, including three of the top four prospects in baseball (the first time that’s happened in 25 years, dating back to 1994 using MLB Pipeline and Baseball America rankings).

So you can tune in to big league games to see the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez and Victor Robles, knowing Vlad Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel and many more will be on their way soon. We’ll also be turning our sights to this June’s Draft soon enough, with a Top 100 Draft prospects list coming at the end of April. Fans have the top of the Draft on their minds as well, with the first few picks the subject of the first two questions in this week’s Inbox.

While it is a bit early to truly know who are going to be serious contenders for the Orioles to take with the No. 1 pick in June, there is virtually no debate over who the top Draft prospect is currently. I’m not giving anything away by letting you know that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman is on top of pretty much any and all Draft boards. He is No. 1 on our Draft Top 50 and he’s done absolutely nothing to diminish his standing, hitting .429/.588/.814 with eight homers and 26 RBIs in 22 games so far this spring. He’s drawn more than twice as many walks (30) as times he’s struck out (13). And he’s a no-doubt catcher long-term.

Behind him at this point, I’d probably put Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn at No. 2. Being a right-right (throwing and hitting) first baseman makes it tougher, that’s not usually a No. 1 pick profile, but his offensive production has been very impressive. The 2018 Golden Spikes Award winner has hit .365/.544/.716 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in 22 games. He also has more walks (25) than strikeouts (15). He doesn’t have the same defensive profile as Rutschman, obviously.

The top high school player, and right now the only one I’d probably put in this conversation is Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. He is No. 2 on our Top 50 and has the chance to be a five-tool shortstop. He has 20-20 potential and absolutely loves to play the game.

There’s still time for others to creep into the conversation, including some arms, but right now, it’s those three hitters at the top.

The White Sox have taken three college bats with their top pick the last three Drafts, so there’s good reason to ask this question. And after reading the answer above, it’s easy to think that perhaps both Rutschman and Vaughn will be taken by the Orioles and Royals. If that’s the case, and the White Sox still want a college hitter, it’s a little unclear who would be next.

Right now, I’m not sure any of them scream No. 3 overall pick based on their profile, but there’s a lot of time still and there’s nothing to say the White Sox (or another team) can take a college hitter earlier than where he might go based on talent, save a little bonus pool money, and spend more aggressively later. I’ll throw out a handful of names to consider:

Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State: Hitting .427/.545/1.034 in 23 games, 14 HR, 36 RBIs, 8 SB, 20/15 BB/K ratio

JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt: Hitting .357/.451/.694 in 25 games, 9 HR, 29 RBIs, 18/21 BB/K ratio

Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV: Hitting .311/.471/.572 in 27 games, 4 SB, 30/22 BB/K ratio

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech: Hitting .342/.463/.553 in 20 games, 17/14 BB/K ratio

Bishop, whose older brother Braden is a Mariners prospect, has done more than any other college hitter to improve his stock with the way he’s performed this spring. Stott has ridiculous tools that will get a lot of looks.

Both Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, the No. 2 and No. 7 prospects in the Braves' system, are currently in the big league rotation, though that’s likely temporary. Kevin Gausman and Mike Foltynewicz should be back in the next week or two, so it remains to be seen who gets to stick around. Will it be Wright, Wilson or young lefties Sean Newcomb or Max Fried? It’s a good problem to have for the Braves.

Long-term, both Wright and Wilson have definite big league starter potential. Wilson was the one who had question marks about his ability to start, but I think he’s answered them. He does have the stuff and mentality to play up out of the bullpen, but if he goes there this year, it’s only because of need as the Braves look to contend again. Wright is a no-doubt starter. I think both will be given chances to contribute, along with Touki Toussaint, and perhaps lefties Luiz Gohara and Kolby Allard.

We’ve all seen an uptick in velocity, and it does seem that guys who can sit in the upper-90s and reach triple digits consistently are more common. I’m not exactly sure where the 0.03 percent of pitchers who “should be given” 80 grades came from, but this was worth taking a look at.

This year, we have seven 80-grade fastballs among the 430 fastball grades on Prospect Watch. That’s 1.63 percent, which is obviously well above that 0.03 percent figure. But it’s actually lower than in 2018. Last year at the start of the season, we had handed out nine 80 fastballs out of 431 grades, for a 2.09 percent rate.

We have adjusted our grades based on guys throwing harder, though maybe that comes out more with making it tougher to get an above-average (55) to plus (60) fastball grade. With average fastball velocities among prospects definitely on the rise, we will continue to monitor that and tweak the grades ever so slightly as needed. It is possible, however, there are just truly more 80 fastballs in the game than there used to be.