Tiebreaker scenarios for USA, Italy, Mexico

HOUSTON -- The United States assembled its best roster yet for this World Baseball Classic. But its fate will now come down to the rosters of Italy and Mexico.

“It’s out of our control,” Team USA captain Aaron Judge said. “Now we just need a little luck, and we’ll see what happens.”

After Italy stunned the loaded American squad with an 8-6 victory in pool play Tuesday night at Daikin Park, all eyes are on the Italy-Mexico tilt at 7 p.m. ET Wednesday (watch on Tubi), with multiple advancement scenarios still in play for all three remaining teams in Pool B.

If Italy defeats Mexico, then Italy, at 4-0 in pool play, would be the Pool B winner, and Team USA, at 3-1, would be the runner-up. Italy and the U.S. would both advance to the quarterfinals.

But if Mexico defeats Italy, then Mexico, Italy and the U.S. would all be 3-1. In that scenario, Mexico would advance, but a mathematical tiebreaker would be required to determine whether Italy or the U.S. advances.

The tied teams would be ranked, based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three tied teams.

If that also results in a tie, the next tiebreaker is earned runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in the games between the three tied teams.

These are the relevant stats entering Wednesday’s play, with the U.S. having completed all four of its pool games:

Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy, there is no scenario in which Mexico could win Wednesday’s game without advancing.

Assuming a nine-inning game, Team USA would advance if Italy gives up five runs or more and loses. But Italy would advance if it loses but gives up four or fewer runs.

An extra-inning game would, of course, alter the math.

Whatever happens, the members of Team USA won’t have a relaxing off day. They’ll gather together in their Houston hotel to watch Mexico vs. Italy. And the final score will determine whether they gather again.