Wheeler looks to get back on track against Leahy, Cards

Zack Wheeler has been on a bit of a roller coaster since the All-Star break. He’ll take the ball on Wednesday with a chance to stabilize things, as each remaining game stays pivotal as the Phillies continue to fight for a National League Wild Card spot.

First pitch is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. ET Wednesday. Wheeler (10-3, 2.69 ERA) is set to face off against Cardinals righty Kyle Leahy (8-4, 3.45 ERA) in the rubber game of the series. Philadelphia won the series opener, 6-5, and St. Louis took the middle game, 2-0.

Wheeler picked up right where he left off in his first start following the Midsummer Classic. He spun seven strong innings against the Dodgers, allowing just two runs alongside nine strikeouts. In three starts since then, the 36-year-old has pitched just 10 1/3 innings with a 7.84 ERA.

Those numbers were primarily affected by an uncharacteristic three-inning, five-run start against the Marlins -- at the time his shortest start in more than four years. His average four-seam fastball velocity was down, too, though he said it was “just one of those days” and downplayed any health concerns.

Wheeler looked much better his next time on the bump. With a fastball running closer to his season average, he struck out three Orioles in two scoreless innings before rain shortened the outing.

That brings us to last Friday against the Blue Jays. Wheeler labored through 5 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on seven hits. He struck out six but issued five walks, his most in a start since he walked seven on April 7, 2019. The outing culminated in a 15-pitch bout with Nathan Lukes that ended with a single and kept Wheeler from finishing the sixth frame. Wheeler’s 116 pitches were his most in a start since 2021.

And that’s all without mentioning added debate surrounding whether Wheeler was maintaining contact with the rubber as he pitched.

"Tired, I'm not going to lie,” Wheeler said when asked how he felt after the game. “It was hot and humid, and the air was just still. I still had juice in me there at the end, but yeah, I was a little tired."

Of course, this three-start blip has only raised Wheeler’s ERA to 2.69, which is still good for tied for ninth best in MLB among starters with at least 100 innings this season.

Since his struggles against the Marlins, Wheeler’s underlying metrics have looked mostly normal, too. He’s quickly gotten back to limiting hard contact (33.3% hard-hit rate) and generating swings and misses (28.6% whiff rate).

The Cardinals, on the outside of the Wild Card race and looking in, may represent a good chance for Wheeler to get on track. The Redbirds are 25th in baseball since the All-Star break with a .648 OPS as they’ve gone 10-15.

Leahy, however, will be stiff competition. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in eight consecutive starts.