An early ranking of top Rookie of the Year contenders

It was 25 years ago that a 13th-round Draft pick out of junior college emerged out of nowhere to rip 88 extra-base hits for the Cardinals and the first position player to go from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB cranked out 242 hits and 56 steals for the 116-win Mariners.

In terms of top-end production, the year Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki rocked our world might never be topped.

But in terms of total production from rookie players, the 2026 season is shaping up to be something special.

It’s especially evident on offense. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, rookies posted the fifth-best OPS through each team’s first 18 games going back to 1900:

0.746 - 1930
0.738 - 1949
0.736 - 1936
0.731 - 1928
0.726 - 2026

• All-time Rookie of the Year Award winners

This is all part and parcel with the baseball environment we’re in. Kids are getting exposed to high-level competition (and velocity) at young ages, the NCAA product has never been stronger and the path from the low Minors to the Majors has been accelerated.

Rookies are no longer hazed and no longer fazed. Teams are giving them opportunities (and, in many cases, extensions), and, by and large, they’re getting rewarded.

So while Ichiro and Pujols made the Rookie of the Year voting pretty easy back in 2001 (with Ichiro even becoming just the second rookie to win MVP), we might have some difficult decisions on our hands this year, if the early depth of this rookie class is any indication.

Let’s take a way-too-early look at the top five contenders in each league and how this might shape up.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians

We thought it was pretty dramatic last fall when DeLauter not only became just the sixth player in MLB history to debut in the postseason but did so after missing several months due to injury and was asked to play out of position in center field.

Turns out, that was nothing.

He made his proper debut on Opening Day and proceeded to join 2016 Trevor Story as the only rookies to go deep four times in their first three regular-season games. DeLauter has a lengthy injury history going back to his time at James Madison, but the former two-way talent has a compact left-handed stroke and uber-disciplined approach that makes him less susceptible to slumps. He might already be the second-biggest offensive weapon on his team, behind the great José Ramírez.

So if he can make it through the year healthy, you have to like his chances of winning this award.

2. Kevin McGonigle, SS/3B, Tigers

Or maybe it will go to another guy in the AL Central?

McGonigle had an accelerated path to MLB, getting drafted out of high school (37th overall in 2023) and logging only 169 at-bats in Double-A and zero in Triple-A before the Tigers rostered him out of camp this year. (Humble brag: I am one of the few humans who can say he watched McGonigle take at-bats at Double-A Erie -- in the Moon Mammoths uni, no less.)

The Tigers made a historic investment in McGonigle earlier this week with an eight-year extension that guarantees him at least $150 million. It seems wise because of his high baseball IQ and aptitude. In his first 19 games, McGonigle, all of 21 years old, walked (12) more times than he struck out (10) while getting on base at a .405 clip. We watched him turn a splitter six inches off the ground into a 100-mph double.

McGonigle, who for the record was my preseason pick (and somehow hasn’t been jinxed by that distinction yet), might not end up with slugging percentage that bowls people over, but he’s already looked like the best hitter on a contending team and voters can recognize value in all forms.

3. Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians

Or maybe it will go to another guy in the AL Central? (Are you sensing a theme here?)

This has been, deservedly, an offensive-oriented piece to this point, but of course a pitcher can enter the conversation. And if you had to pick a pitcher to win this award in the AL right now, it’s definitely Messick.

Of course, he’ll have to keep up some version of the terrific standard he’s set for himself for the remainder of the year. Messick is a command guy, not a stuff guy, and command can definitely play, as we saw when he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Orioles on Thursday night. But because he doesn’t overpower people and generate many whiffs, he has less room for error than a certain emerging NL ace who we’ll get to shortly. Case in point: Messick has a ridiculous 0.51 ERA through four starts but a 2.92 expected ERA based on his opponents’ quality of contact. Still terrific, but not, like, historic. You also have to wonder how the dynamic of DeLauter and Messick being on the same team would impact the voting.

Anyway, it’s early for everybody but, for pitchers, it’s especially early (no, not Connelly Early of the Red Sox, though he’s been very good, too). One outing can flip the numbers dramatically in either direction. Plus, the award in either league has historically tended to go to position players, especially in recent years (only three pitcher wins since 2017).

4. Munetaka Murakami, 1B, White Sox

The AL Central, ladies and gents!

Just my opinion, but I think NPB has enough documented evidence as an MLB proving ground at this point that we should graduate from the concept of viewing their players as “rookies” when they reach MLB.

But as long as the official label applies, then players like Murakami are up for the award. And with five homers and a 23% walk rate in his first 18 games, Murakami is an early candidate.

The problem is that, as advertised, he’s striking out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances and doesn’t (or at least hasn’t) provided much value on the defensive end. So he’s not as slump-proof as DeLauter/McGonigle. But if he goes on more dinger binges akin to what he unleashed on opening weekend in Milwaukee, he could become the fifth Japanese-born player to win this honor, joining Hideo Nomo (1995), Kaz Sasaki (2000), Ichiro ('01) and Shohei Ohtani ('18).

5. The field

If you take the field right now, you not only get access to someone like Royals catcher Carter Jensen (four homers through 53 at-bats) but also other people who don’t even play in the AL Central!

This includes the Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage as he makes it back from injury and their 29-year-old “rookie” third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, Rays shortstop Carson Williams, Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo, etc.

And let’s not forget that last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, A’s slugger Nick Kurtz, hadn’t even debuted at this point a year ago (he made his debut on April 23). Mariners infielder (and MLB Pipeline’s No. 7 overall prospect) Colt Emerson strikes me as the type who’s going to get a look before long.

At this stage, the field is still not a bad bet, even if DeLauter and McGonigle might make that sound crazy.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds

This is the early favorite. It’s not just impact -- but loud impact. The guy hit a pair of three-run homers in the same game. Before the end of the second inning! That’s loud.

Stewart entered the weekend tied for second in the Majors in homers (seven), ranking fifth in OPS (1.095) and tied for eighth in RBIs (17). He had even swiped a few bags and had walked (13) nearly as many times as he had struck out (15).

There was once concern that Stewart, a 32nd overall pick out of high school in 2022, would have trouble reaching his potential because of his weight. But now he’s slimmed down and slamming, and he plays his home games in the right ballpark to keep the dingers coming as the weather warms. It doesn’t hurt that the Reds are playing pretty well early and that Stewart is their main offensive cog already. It’s a perfect recipe for the Reds to have their second Rookie of the Year this decade, after Jonathan India in 2021.

2. Nolan McLean, RHP, Mets

For a pitcher to break through in a position player-dominated award, it helps to have the look, feel and, sure, the hype of a burgeoning ace.

McLean has it.

This 24-year-old, would-be college quarterback has a truly elite arsenal (two fastballs with different shapes, a curveball that breaks 26 inches and a sweeper that covers the width of home plate), to go with the track record that comes with eight starts in 2025 in which his ERA+ was almost twice as good as the league average.

Voters will conceivably only be considering his 2026 numbers, but that strong finish to 2025 could ultimately earn McLean some extra credit. And so far, through four starts in which he has a 173 ERA+ and is holding opponents to a .168 expected batting average, he is putting up quite a follow-up.

3. Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates

Griffin’s numbers do not yet match his talent. He’s got a .602 OPS, is striking out a bunch and spiked a double-play ball in the field in a bad loss to the Nats on Thursday. He definitely has issues to iron out.

But you know what else he has? A contract and a job! Sometimes that’s half the battle.

If the Pirates remain in contention and Griffin continues to struggle, the conversation could change, but for now he’s got the opportunity to ride this out and let his talent rise to the surface. The physical tools are very real. Plus-plus power. Plus-plus arm. Plus-plus speed. It’s bound to reveal itself eventually.

The problem with the Rookie of the Year race is that it has to reveal itself almost immediately. So from that standpoint, Griffin is in a race against time. But there’s still time.

4. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies

I hesitate to get too pitcher-heavy here, given the aforementioned award history and the general difficulty of performing at a peak level for an entire first year in this particular position. But Painter’s arrival was highly anticipated, and, at age 23, he’s got an awful lot of red ink on his Baseball Savant page, a gigantic opportunity on a contending Phillies club and some early successes to serve as a base upon which he can build.

Painter was scratched from a start against the Diamondbacks this week because of a terrible migraine that caused him to vomit several times. But he rallied to enter the game in the third inning and proceeded to strike out seven in five innings. Hard not to love what that tells us about his ability to compete.

5. The field

Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt was my preseason pick for this award, so it pains me to relegate him to “the field.” But I made that pick not knowing how quickly the Pirates would promote Griffin, and the early numbers from Stewart (what is it with the Central Divisions this season?) drop Wetherholt down the position-player pecking order for now. The problem for Wetherholt is that, when it comes time to vote, skills like an elite chase rate and elite range don’t jump off the page as much as raw power can. But he’s off to a solid start and will have plenty of at-bats.

The field also grants you access to Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie’s bat speed and power (albeit with a lot of Ks that come with it), Giants catcher Daniel Susac’s crazy, if unsustainable, start (nine hits in his first 16 at-bats), the hitting potential of Moisés Ballesteros with the Cubs and Carson Benge with the Mets, the big-league pedigree that landed Justin Crawford in center field for the Phillies, TJ Rumfield’s excellent discipline and first-base glove with the Rockies, etc.

Not a bad package at all. But I’d still rather go with Stewart or McLean at this point.