5 bets to consider for Sunday Night Baseball
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Sunday Night Baseball features an American League showdown between the Chicago White Sox and the Houston Astros. These teams both won their division last season, but they’ve gotten off to different starts in 2022. The Astros continue to play like one of the best teams in baseball. They’ve won 40 of their first 65 games, good for the second-best record in the AL. They own a sizable nine-game lead over the Rangers in the AL West heading into Sunday, so they’re in great shape to make another run to the postseason.
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone nearly as well for the White Sox. They’re currently one game under .500 at 31-32, leaving them in third place in the AL Central. They’re five games behind the division-leading Twins heading into the day, so they’ll need to make up some ground if they’re going to return to the postseason.
Can the White Sox get back to .500 on Sunday night? Let’s take a look at some of my favorite wagers for Sunday Night Baseball on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sunday night’s contest features a stellar pitching matchup between Michael Kopech and Cristian Javier. Both players have been outstanding this season, with Kopech pitching to a 1.92 ERA and Javier posting a 3.20 ERA.
Kopech has always been considered a top prospect and he’s finally put things together in 2022. He has undoubtedly gotten a bit lucky -- opposing batters have managed just a .177 batting average on balls in play -- but his 3.15 xERA is still solid. The Astros possess one of the best offenses in baseball, but they have been a bit more manageable for right-handed pitchers. They rank fifth in wRC+ in that split, after leading the league in that department last year.
Meanwhile, Javier’s traditional ERA undersells how good he’s been. He’s posted excellent Statcast data and he ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average. He’s racked up 11.19 strikeouts per nine innings -- despite lacking elite velocity -- and his 2.93 xERA would be the 10th-best mark among starters if he had enough innings to qualify.
He should have no problems carving through a White Sox lineup that has massively underperformed this season. They rank 26th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and they’re averaging the 10th fewest runs per game.
Overall, runs should be at a premium in this contest, so I’ll take my chances with the under on 7.5 runs.
Kyle Tucker first home run (+1000)
While Kopech has been dominant this season, he is clearly due for some regression. His BABIP is unsustainable, especially given his minuscule 29.4 percent ground-ball rate. Opposing batters have also made quality contact against him, with Kopech ranking in the 29th percentile for average exit velocity and the 47th percentile for hard-hit rate.
Kopech relies on two primary pitches: a four-seam fastball and a slider. He throws the fastball nearly 65.5 percent of the time and his slider is his next most common pitch at approximately 21 percent. He’s found plenty of success with both pitches this season, but opposing batters have posted a 45.8 percent hard-hit rate against his fastball.
With that in mind, guys who hit well against the fastball could find some success in this spot. Tucker fits the description, posting a .434 xwOBA and a .593 xSLG against fastballs this season. He’s also been outstanding against sliders, posting a .724 xSLG against the pitch. Tucker also bats left-handed, so he’ll have the splits advantage in this matchup, as well.
Add it all up, and Tucker makes a lot of sense to hit the first homer at +1000.
Danny Mendick first hit (+6500)
Let’s swing for the fences on this prop. Mendick has a small sample size of at-bats at the Major League level this season, but he’s posted a .284 batting average and a 127 wRC+. He also hit leadoff for the White Sox on Saturday and they ultimately scored seven runs in that contest. Considering how much the White Sox have struggled offensively this year, they could very well go right back to that lineup on Sunday night.
If Mendick hits leadoff once again, getting him at +6500 is absolute larceny. The White Sox leadoff hitter will get the first at-bat of the game as the road team, which is extremely desirable for a first-hit prop. The other top hitters for the White Sox are all priced in the +330 to +450 range, so +6500 is a major outlier. I’ll take a flyer on Mendick and hope he’s in the leadoff spot once again.
Betting the “yes” on first-inning scoring is typically the way to go. The first inning is almost always the highest-scoring inning in the Majors -- and it’s the only inning in which both teams are guaranteed to have the top of the order at the dish.
However, neither of these teams have been particularly potent in the first inning this season. The White Sox have scored in the first inning just 25.4 percent of the time, which ranks 23rd. That’s not surprising given how impotent their offense has been all year. What’s more surprising is that the Astros rank merely 14th in first-inning scoring.
Additionally, both of Sunday’s starters have been tough to score on to start games. Javier owns just a 2.25 ERA in the first inning this season, while Kopech is at 1.69. The under on 0.5 runs in the first has been juiced up to -140, but I still think there’s some value in that number.
Alex Bregman under 0.5 hits (+150)
Despite Kopech’s mediocre Statcast numbers, it’s fair to say he’s been death to right-handed batters this season. They own just a .121 batting average against him and they’ve managed a paltry .181 wOBA. Overall, he’s faced 119 right-handed batters and he’s surrendered just 13 hits.
Bregman was previously considered one of the best hitters in baseball, but he has not been able to reach those heights recently. He posted just a 115 wRC+ last year and he’s been even worse to start 2022. He owns a dreadful .217 batting average and he has historically hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handers. That hasn’t been the case this season -- he owns a .250 batting average in that split -- but there’s enough here to take a shot at the under at +150.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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