5 bets to consider for Sunday Night Baseball

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Sunday Night Baseball this week features a matchup between the Cardinals and Giants. The Giants were one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season -- winning 107 games and the highly competitive NL West -- and they’re off to another strong start in 2022. They’re 20-13 through their first 33 games, which puts them just a half-game behind the Dodgers and Padres entering the day.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have played around .500 baseball to start the year, racking up an 18-15 record. However, they have outscored their opponents by 28 runs, which is the seventh-best mark in the league.

Overall, this should be a competitive contest between two very good teams. Let’s dive into some of my favorite wagers for this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cardinals under 2.5 runs (+115)

The Cardinals’ success this season has been based more on their pitching staff than their offense. They rank eighth in team ERA, including the fifth-best bullpen ERA. Sunday’s starter, Adam Wainwright, continues to turn back the clock, pitching to a 3.18 ERA in his age-40 season.

They’ve been much more mediocre swinging the bat. The Cardinals have some talented hitters in their lineup -- Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman stand out -- but they’re simply not making good contact. They rank dead last in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity this season and they own the second-worst barrel rate. Those factors combine to give the Cardinals a measly .304 xwOBA, which is better than only the lowly Reds.

That doesn’t bode well against Carlos Rodón, who has been brilliant in his first season with the Giants. He’s posted a 1.80 ERA and a 1.21 FIP through his first six starts, and he’s also striking out a career-best 13.63 per nine innings. The Cardinals have already been held below three runs in 13 games this season, so I’ll roll the dice on under 2.5 runs at +115.

Carlos Rodón under 7.5 strikeouts (-125)

I’m bullish on Rodón this season -- you can still grab him at around +700 to win the National League Cy Young Award -- and he should be able to breeze through the Cardinals' lineup.

However, the one area where the Cardinals’ offense excels is limiting strikeouts. They own the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league, including the fifth-best mark against southpaws. Even though they haven’t made great contact, they have put the ball in play at a high frequency. Rodón has also been a bit worse from a strikeout perspective on the road, averaging 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings compared to a ridiculous 17.47 in San Francisco.

Rodón is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game and he’s hit the over on 7.5 strikeouts in all but one start. Still, 7.5 seems a bit rich for this matchup.

Yadier Molina under 0.5 hits (+110)

Molina will almost certainly be headed to Cooperstown after he hangs up his cleats, but he’s clearly on the downside of his career. His offensive numbers have dropped off over the past few years, and he’s off to a dreadful start at the plate this season. He’s slumped to a measly .236 average -- and his 60 wRC+ would be the second-worst mark of his career.

The 39-year-old will have the splits advantage over Rodón, but that might not necessarily help him. Molina is just 2-for-14 against southpaws to start the year, and he’s posted a hard-hit rate of just 8.3% in that split. Overall, his wRC+ sits at a paltry -17 against left-handers to start the year.

Molina likely won’t be that bad against lefties all year, but don’t expect a breakout against a pitcher of Rodón’s caliber.

LaMonte Wade over 0.5 home runs (+600)

I’m going with Wade for my homer pick in this matchup. He missed most of the early season with an injury, but he returned to the Giants’ lineup on May 6. Since then, he’s served as the team’s primary leadoff hitter and his results have been fantastic.

His traditional stats are solid -- he has one homer and a 187 wRC+ -- but his Statcast data is downright filthy. He boasts an absurd average exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, resulting in a hard-hit rate of 73.3%. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that his xSLG sits at .649, which is the same mark as reigning MVP Bryce Harper. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, he would be ranked in the Top 10 in MLB in that metric.

Wade will also be on the positive side of his splits vs. Wainwright. Opposing left-handed batters have posted a .403 SLG against him, which is more than 100 points better than opposing righties.

I wouldn’t expect Wade to continue to mash like this all season, but he’s clearly underpriced at +600. He’s arguably the best hitter in the Giants’ lineup at the moment, yet he owns just the fifth-shortest odds on the squad to go yard on Sunday.

Brandon Belt over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Belt is another left-handed batter for the Giants and he’s blossomed into one of the most underrated hitters in baseball. He’s posted a wRC+ of at least 158 in each of the past two seasons, and he’s off to another solid start this year. He boasts a 143 wRC+ through his first 102 plate appearances and his numbers have unsurprisingly been better against right-handed pitchers.

He has also displayed a bit more power throughout his career on the road. Oracle Park in San Francisco is arguably the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, so Belt gets to shine when on the road. He owns a .221 ISO on the road against right-handers for his career -- and he boasted a .369 ISO in that split last season.

His homer odds are significantly worse than Wade’s, so I like the idea of grabbing the over on 1.5 total bases instead. He can hit the over on one swing and he can also get the job done with a couple of singles. That’s a reasonable expectation against Wainwright.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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