Here are 5 wise wagers for May 14-15 games
This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.
Weekend baseball ... there’s nothing like it. From early afternoon action on Saturday all the way through until Sunday Night Baseball. Here’s a look at five wagers to consider for Saturday, May 14, and Sunday, May 15.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
SATURDAY
Yankees at White Sox
The wager: Yankees first five innings team total over 2.5 runs
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
The Yankees came into Guaranteed Rate Field this week and have dismantled Chicago’s pitching staff so far. That isn’t going to stop on Saturday with Dallas Keuchel on the mound.
New York owns an MLB-best .213 ISO against left-handed pitching. They’re also top five in OPS, wOBA and hard-contact rate against lefties. Speaking of contact, only the Blue Jays make less soft contact against left-handed pitching.
Now, Keuchel has generated a good amount of soft contact -- and he’s keeping the ball on the ground quite a bit. But when players do get one of his offerings airborne, they have a good chance of taking him deep (16.7% home run to fly ball rate). His HR/FB rate gets even higher when you focus solely on his matchups against right-handed hitters. Given Keuchel’s 11.2% walk rate, there’s a good chance any home runs hit off the lefty won’t be solo shots. Backing the Yankees to score over 4.5 runs at -125 is also a fine play, but opponents have gone over this first five innings total in three of Keuchel’s five starts this season. Check for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton props once those go live on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros at Nationals
The wager: Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases
Line: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
It started with the suspended game in Minnesota and carried over into Houston’s series opener vs. Washington on Friday. Alvarez is rolling. Once that happens, there aren’t many who can slow him down. The best thing you can do is back him against righties until the next mini cold spell strikes.
Alvarez continues to destroy right-handed pitching, posting a 44.4% hard-contact rate while generating next to no soft contact (7.4%). That’s led to a cartoonish .499 wOBA and .492 ISO against righties. All 10 of his home runs have been hit off of right-handers, as well as two of his three doubles.
Erick Fedde, who’ll be on the bump for Washington, has given up a pair of home runs and three doubles to left-handed hitters. Lefties have generated a pretty even mix of soft, medium and hard contact against him, which is uncommon. But combine that 31.4% hard-contact rate lefties enjoy against Fedde with the fact he gives up a lot of line drives and fly balls, and Alvarez is likely to have an extra-base hit on Saturday.
Also, Fedde’s 11.8% HR/FB rate against lefties is quite a bit lower than his career average. Asking Alvarez to go yard (+270) three days in a row is a lot, but Fedde is definitely someone who could help him accomplish that. Regardless, it’s a steal getting Alvarez’s total bases prop at this price right now.
Red Sox at Rangers
The wager: First seven innings total over 6.5 runs
Line: +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Boston’s offense seems to be waking up. That’s not necessarily going to translate to wins every game because of their pitching, but that’s not our problem. Glenn Otto will be the fourth right-handed starter the Red Sox have seen in four games. The best outing to come from one the previous three righties was three earned runs over 5 1/3 innings, which seems like an average day for an MLB starter. The other two righties gave up six and five runs, respectively. Backing Boston to score over 3.5 runs (-125) is very much in play -- you’ll just have to lay a little juice.
Now, Texas hasn’t been hit or miss offensively. The Rangers do have one of the better ISO’s against lefties and are just outside the Top 10 in terms of OPS and wOBA. But, combine those numbers with this being Hill’s first appearance off the COVID-19 IL and the play becomes more appealing. Also, the bullpen behind him isn’t great, sporting a 4.08 ERA and 3.98 FIP thus far.
SUNDAY
Astros at Nationals
The wager: Astros minus 1.5 runs
Line: -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Thirty-nine years old and looking like an All-Star. Justin Verlander’s start to 2022 has been something special. He has to have three more years in the tank, right?
Anyway, we’re not worried about the next three years. Verlander toes the rubber on Sunday against a Washington lineup that’s been pretty good against right-handed pitching to start the season. But, there’s been a bit of luck on their part, too. The Nats own a .310 BABIP against righties, despite having one of the highest soft-contact rates (20%) and lower hard-contact rates (26%) against them.
Conversely, the Astros only have a .225 BABIP against left-handed pitching despite their 33.1% hard-contact rate. Perhaps Patrick Corbin and his 34.9% hard-contact rate can help with that. Given the Washington lefty has only given up one home run in the early going, it seems like some correction is in order for both parties.
Be on the lookout for Verlander’s outs recorded props. If it’s set at 18.5 like it has been recently, that’s definitely one of the most reliable pitcher props you’ll find for Sunday’s action.
Angels at Athletics
The wager: Angels minus 1.5 runs
Line: +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Any Frankie Montas outing has a chance to be exciting, but Sunday’s likely won’t be for A’s fans. The Angels are one of the best teams in all of baseball against right-handed pitching, boasting an MLB-best .195 ISO against righties, along with the second-best wOBA against them. A few Angels have fared well against Montas throughout their careers -- particularly Shohei Ohtani. Be on the lookout for his total-bases prop when that goes live.
On the other side, Oakland has been middling against left-handed pitching. A few A’s have gotten decent looks at Patrick Sandoval in the past, but nothing that gives cause for concern. If L.A. turns to righties out of the pen, things get even easier -- Oakland has the worst wOBA and second-worst ISO against right-handed pitching.
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