Nola could be crucial to Phils' attempt to earn playoff spot in 2nd half

PHILADELPHIA -- The Phillies know it’s a long season.

That’s why they never wavered in their goal to win the 2026 World Series despite an up-and-down first half that featured the dismissal of manager Rob Thomson and the demotion of top prospect Andrew Painter.

Through it all, they insisted they would steady the ship and play like the club that has made the postseason four consecutive years.

And to their credit, they’ve done that since appointing interim manager Don Mattingly on April 28. The Phillies went 45-24 from that date until the All-Star break, tied with the Brewers for the best mark in MLB during that span.

But with the second half kicking off with Thursday night’s 4-1 loss to the Mets at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are reaching crunch time in that long season.

“We're in the sprint phase of this race,” Mattingly said. “We're almost at 100 games, so we're down to 60-something games left … and this is more of the time where we talk about the importance of winning every day.”

The Phillies (54-44) are 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the National League East. They currently hold the second NL Wild Card spot, sitting 2 1/2 games clear of the Cardinals.

Let’s take a closer look at the three keys to the Phillies not only chasing down the Braves, but reaching their ultimate goal come October.

1) Which version of Nola will show up?
Yes, the Phillies have one of the best starting-pitching trios atop their rotation -- and yes, they can lean heavily on Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo come postseason time.

But they still need Aaron Nola to be serviceable, especially with so much uncertainty in the No. 5 spot. Not to mention, the Phillies saw how quickly things can change last August when they lost Wheeler for the season and their biggest strength -- a vaunted top-of-the-rotation trio -- was suddenly diminished.

Nola allowed just one run through six innings against the Mets Thursday night, but he went back out for the seventh and promptly gave up back-to-back homers. Still, Nola has now allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts.

He hasn’t been vintage Nola by any means, but the Phillies would gladly take this version down the stretch.

“A lot of baseball left, but not a ton of baseball left,” Nola said. “I feel like it's a sprint to the finish right now. Got to take it one game at a time and one series at a time.”

2) Can ‘pen get a lead to Duran?
There’s been plenty of debate about the Phillies’ biggest need ahead of the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

Is it a bullpen arm? Another starting pitcher? A right-handed-hitting outfielder?

Well, that question was all but answered prior to Thursday’s game when the Phillies placed setup man Brad Keller on the injured list with a right elbow UCL tear that will end his season. It’s a brutal loss for a team that already needed bullpen help.

The Phillies will certainly be aggressive in their pursuit of a reliever (or two) in the coming weeks, but they would also benefit massively from improvements internally. They’re confident that José Alvarado will turn things around from his 6.82 first-half ERA -- and his 3.71 expected ERA suggests they might be on to something.

In the meantime, it’ll largely be up to Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan to take on the bulk of the setup opportunities ahead of shutdown closer Jhoan Duran.

But in order for the Phillies to even get a lead from their starter to those back-end guys, they’ll need some combination of Alvarado, Tim Mayza, Max Lazar, Chase Shugart and Seth Johnson to take down big outs in the middle innings.

3) Who will step up offensively?
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been exactly who the Phillies need them to be for the team to get where it wants to go.

Brandon Marsh has been a pleasant surprise, though his average dipped to .297 after going 0-for-4 on Thursday. It’s the first time Marsh is hitting below .300 to end a day since April 28.

The Phillies will need more than that trio come October.

Bryson Stott has rebounded well following a slow start. Justin Crawford has shown signs of coming around. Derek Hill has provided a spark since being acquired from the White Sox on June 11. Alec Bohm seemed to turn a corner in May, but he’s struggled again over the past month.

Of course, the player the Phillies really need to step up is Trea Turner, who smashed a solo home run in the eighth inning of the second-half opener. But he also made his 13th error of the season on a routine sixth-inning grounder.

Turner has shown flashes over the past month, but he's still hitting just .236 with a .646 OPS overall.

A Turner turnaround could be the biggest X-factor in how the rest of this season plays out for the Phils.