PHILADELPHIA -- Prior to even throwing the first pitch of the second half, the Phillies were dealt a massive blow on Thursday afternoon.
Setup man Brad Keller was placed on the 15-day injured list with a UCL tear in his right elbow. Though he’s waiting to get a second opinion before deciding on potential surgery, Keller is expected to miss the remainder of the season, per interim manager Don Mattingly.
“It sucks, for sure,” said Keller, who signed a two-year, $22 million deal this offseason.
Right-hander Seth Johnson was recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley in a corresponding move.
Keller will get a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister in the coming days. If it’s deemed he needs Tommy John surgery, Keller would not only be lost for the rest of this season, but most -- if not all -- of next season, as well.
For a team that was already in the market for bullpen help, Keller’s injury will almost certainly expedite the Phillies’ need to add a reliever ahead of the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.
“I know we're always going to try to get better,” Mattingly said. “Everybody's going to try to get better at the Deadline if they can. For me, I'm comfortable with where we're at. If you say this is our club the rest of the way, and whoever's in the Minor Leagues or whatever is going to help us, then we go forward. We're good enough to win.”
While the Phillies have done plenty of winning -- they’re tied with the Brewers for the best record in MLB (45-24) since Mattingly took over on April 28 -- the bullpen has been an ongoing issue.
All-Star closer Jhoan Duran (1.38 ERA) has been rock solid, but the bridge to get to him -- a role that was largely expected to fall on Keller this season -- has been far from consistent. Outside of Orion Kerkering (2.43 ERA), the Phillies have had to mix and match in their attempt to navigate their way from their starter to Duran.
Keller and the other right-handers were already being asked to take on more given the lack of production from the Phillies’ trio of left-handed relievers. José Alvarado has a 6.82 ERA. Tanner Banks, who is on the IL with a left forearm strain, has a 7.14 ERA. Kyle Backhus, who was demoted to Triple-A on July 7, has a 5.87 ERA.
Lefty Tim Mayza (3.59 ERA) has stepped up of late, as has righty Jonathan Bowlan, who has a 0.82 ERA over his past 24 appearances. That includes allowing just one earned in his 13 appearances since Keller first landed on the IL on June 14 due to right forearm tendinitis.
“Everybody just slides a little bit, that's all,” Mattingly said of filling Keller’s spot. “I think we've seen Kerk be good. He was always in the backend, him and Jhoan. I think during Keller's absence, Jonathan Bowlan really stepped up. He's probably been one of our best relievers, so he slides into one of those roles.”
Still, the Phillies will now need those other guys to step up to backfill the roles previously held by Kerkering and Bowlan.
“Obviously we're going to need Alvy to be Alvy, and we're going to slide whoever -- the guys down below, from Max [Lazar] to Seth to [Chase Shugart]. Those guys are going to have to be able to get big outs in the middle of the game.”
The key piece may be Alvarado. Despite his high ERA, the Phillies remain confident that he’s still a reliable option -- and a lot of the underlying numbers back that up.
Consider this: Alvarado’s expected ERA -- a number that takes into account both the amount of contact allowed (strikeouts, walks, balls in play, etc.) and the quality of that contact -- is just 3.71.
The 3.11 difference between Alvarado’s actual ERA and his expected ERA is the second-highest among 288 pitchers who have faced at least 150 batters.
“I think if you really look at the numbers, Alvy's not throwing the ball bad,” Mattingly said. “There's been some underlying numbers that show that Alvy's throwing the ball well. … The ball's coming out [right], and I expect him to have a good second half.”
Still, the Phillies figure to be one of the more aggressive teams when it comes to landing a reliever in the coming weeks. They have a couple of internal candidates in Gage Wood and Alex McFarland, though both are still in Double-A. Neither is knocking on the door just yet.
In the meantime, Keller will wait on his second opinion. He’s hoping for the best, but he has no idea what to expect.
“It’s tough. Tough news,” Keller said. “Obviously, with the team in the position that we're in, you want to come out in the second half and fight with the boys. It’s just tough to swallow this pill right now.”