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• Free agents, by position
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Are Yankees gearing up for serious pursuit of Machado? Will A-Rod play a part?
Nov. 15: Count MLB Network insider Jon Heyman among those who expect the Yankees to make a serious run at free-agent infielder Manny Machado, despite team owner Hal Steinbrenner saying that he found Machado's comments on his lack of hustle "troubling."
"I think [ownership loves] the guys that want to play for the Yankees," Heyman said Thursday on WFAN. "And Machado, they know that he wants to be a Yankee, or have heard that."
Heyman pointed to Alex Rodriguez's relationship with Machado as a potential factor that could sway the Yankees toward the 26-year-old. Rodriguez, who maintains an advisor role in the organization, has known Machado since the latter was a teenager, with both players having a connection through the Miami baseball scene.
Steinbrenner expressed some reservations about Machado on Wednesday, stemming from the shortstop's controversial interview with Ken Rosenthal during the postseason about not being a "Johnny Hustle" type of player.
"If it's a $300 million guy or a $10 million guy, clearly those comments are troubling," Steinbrenner said. "That's really [general manager Brian Cashman's] job, if we're interested in any player, to sit down with them face-to-face and ask them, 'Where did this come from? What was the context around the entire interview? Was there a point? How do you justify it?'
"Because that ain't going to sell where we play baseball."
But Heyman thinks Steinbrenner's comments were merely a case of the owner "saying the right thing."
"If you say that you don't mind that he didn't hustle, then you're not really doing the right thing," Heyman said. "Publicly, you've gotta take a big stand on pro hustling, it's not a difficult concept. So I think [Steinbrenner] just said the right thing."
Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay shared similar thoughts on his radio show Wednesday about the club's interest in Machado.
"The feeling I get, is that the Yankees are in, in a serious way, on Manny Machado," Kay said. "Now, Brian Cashman has said ... 'he's on the radar.' I think he's more than on the radar."
Heyman: Marlins don't want to trade Realmuto in NL East
Nov. 15: Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto is one of the hottest names on the trade market, and Miami may have four potential suitors in its own division, as the Nationals, Mets, Phillies and Braves could all use a backstop. However, the fan bases of those teams might not want to get too hopeful.
As he mentioned Thursday in an appearance on WFAN, MLB Network insider Jon Heyman is hearing that the Marlins don't want to trade Realmuto within the National League East.
Realmuto's agent, Jeff Berry, made it clear in October that his client has no intention of signing a long-term contract extension with the Marlins, who have control over the catcher for two more seasons before he can become a free agent. Berry also predicted Realmuto "will definitely be wearing a different uniform by the start of Spring Training."
Even if they exclude the NL East from trade talks, the Marlins will likely still have plenty of teams that are interested in acquiring Realmuto, including the Astros.
In his story (subscription required) looking at one move each 2018 postseason team needs to make to get back to October, The Athletic's Jim Bowden named Realmuto as the player Houston should target, writing that the catcher is "worth giving up an elite prospect for."
Grandal's postseason woes could scare suitors
Nov. 15: Grandal was worth 3.6 fWAR and 125 wRC+ last year -- trailing only J.T. Realmuto, perhaps the most coveted trade chip this offseason -- yet some scouts question whether the veteran catcher's October ghosts will catch up with him in free agency.
In a recent article by ESPN's Buster Olney (subscription required), multiple front-office evaluators suggested that while Grandal is a rare breed of being one of the game's best catchers both offensively and defensively, it might be hard for some clubs to look past his past two postseasons, when he was essentially benched for Austin Barnes.
"Do you forget the bad stuff from October, and focus on all of the good stuff from the summer?" one AL evaluator asked, per Olney.
Over 32 career postseason games, all over his past four seasons with the Dodgers, Grandal has slashed .107/.264/.200 with 35 strikeouts across 92 plate appearances. Even for his prowess at pitch framing, Grandal was on the wrong end of four passed balls this past October alone.
Video: NLCS Gm 3: Grandal discusses defensive performance
"You figure that whatever team signs him will probably be one of the clubs that cares about the subtle [good] stuff he does on defense," another evaluator told Olney.
Olney notes that the Astros, Nationals, Braves, Angels and Mets are in the market for a catcher, as are the Dodgers, whom Grandal turned down a qualifying offer from. So there's clearly interest from his incumbent club, even if it's not necessarily long term. And Realmuto, who might affect Grandal's market, is reportedly attached to an incredibly high asking price from the Marlins via a trade.
Olney suggested that the White Sox could be a potential suitor for Grandal. After three full seasons in rebuild mode, Chicago is looking to contend again, and it has been linked to the market's top talent.
"There is skepticism the White Sox will, in the end, land either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, and Grandal might be the next-best position player fit for the White Sox, if they believe Grandal is the right guy to work with a very young group of starting pitchers," Olney writes.
As MLB.com's Mike Petriello noted recently, the 2018 season was one of the weakest in MLB history in terms of catcher production. In that context, Grandal would appear valuable. But some teams also account for postseason performances, and Grandal's have been glaringly poor.
Should signing Harper be the Dodgers' priority?
Nov. 15: After re-signing Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers may be preparing for a relatively quiet offseason. But The Athletic's Jim Bowden thinks the club should look to make a massive splash by signing one of the biggest names on the free-agent market: Bryce Harper.
In his story (subscription required) looking at one move each 2018 postseason team needs to make to get back to October, Bowden writes that Harper to the Dodgers "makes too much sense," even if the club is saying it isn't planning on significantly increasing payroll.
The Dodgers reportedly tried to acquire Harper via waivers in August, and after losing in the World Series for the second straight season, it wouldn't be a major surprise if they bid on the slugger in an effort to get over the hump.
As Bowden points out, Harper would give the Dodgers' lineup a strong left-right balance, and his star power would be a major marketing point in Los Angeles.
Is a deGrom extension coming?
Nov 14: Jacob deGrom just had a historic season in which he led MLB with a microscopic 1.70 ERA while racking up 269 strikeouts over 217 innings -- career bests across the board for the right-hander -- on his way to winning the National League Cy Young Award. Is now the right time for the Mets to lock in their ace, who is not eligible to become a free agent until after the 2020 season, with a long-term deal?
In a story for the New York Post, MLB Network insider Joel Sherman explores what an extension might look like -- one that could be acceptable to both deGrom and the Mets. Sherman's proposed numbers are as follows:
"My concept would be a five-year, $155.5 million contract that would pay deGrom $20 million in 2019, $27.5 million in 2020 and then $36 million annually from 2021-23. The $31.1 million average would beat the annual value of all pitchers except Zack Greinke (I assume positionally that both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will exceed the $31 million average of Miguel Cabrera this offseason). The $36 million would top the most ever given in any singular season to a pitcher. (Max Scherzer has $35 million seasons in his contract.)"
deGrom has performed as well as just about any pitcher over the past few seasons, so Sherman is arguing that it makes sense to pay him as such. Couple that with the fact that new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen -- who, as deGrom's agent back in July, put pressure on the Mets to either extend the star or trade him -- has stated that he sees the club contending and not selling. In that vein of thinking, a long-term pact fits, and in fact, momentum is building around finding ways to keep deGrom in Flushing, SNY's Andy Martino writes.
Working out the details and digits is where things get complicated, however. New York would have to weigh the value of deGrom as their franchise face, as well as his production on the mound against his age (30) and injury history (including Tommy John surgery). In deGrom's case, the question is whether he could be passing up an even bigger payday in two years, at which point he'll be free to negotiate with 29 other clubs.
Projecting Harper's next contract
Nov. 14: While superstar slugger Bryce Harper is primed to cash in this offseason, he may have several options to consider when it comes to the length of his next contract, which Sports Illustrated's Emma Baccellieri covered in an article for si.com on Tuesday.
The most likely option would seem to be what Baccellieri terms "The Lifetime Deal," a 10-year contract in the neighborhood of $350 million.
These types of deals are risky for the signing team, as the Angels and the Mariners have found out after inking Albert Pujols and Robinson Cano, respectively. But as Baccellieri points out, Pujols was 31 years old and Cano 30 when they signed. Harper is only 26, giving him a better chance to make a long-term contract pay off.
Harper could also consider a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value (AAV). Baccellieri proposes a four-year, $170 million contract that would blow away the record for AAV, which is held by Zack Greinke at $34.4 million.
Taking that one step further, Harper could sign a one-year deal for $45 million, betting on his ability return to MVP form in 2019 before entering free agency again next offseason. This would obviously be risky for the outfielder, as he could have a down year or suffer an injury, but he might consider it if the offers he receives aren't much better than the one he reportedly rejected from the Nationals (10 years, $300 million) on the final day of the regular season.
Which teams could benefit most from Eovaldi's elite fastball velocity?
Nov. 14: A number of clubs could be targeting Nathan Eovaldi this winter because the hard-throwing hurler stands out from the rest of the free-agent class -- which includes Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and J.A. Happ -- with his velocity. His fastball averaged 97.1 mph last season, which ranked third among regular starters behind only Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard. He hit triple digits 10 times, more than any other regular starter.
MLB.com's David Adler speculates five potential landing spots for the 28-year-old veteran, idenifying the Brewers, Giants, D-backs, Padres and A's as clubs that not only need a starter, but could use a starter with Eovaldi's velocity.
The Giants, for instance, didn't have any starters with league-average fastball velocity in 2018 and had the lowest rate of fastballs throwing at 95 mph or greater in the Majors (0.4 percent). More >
Evaluating the over-30 market using Statcast™'s spring speed metric
Nov. 14: This year's free agency is centered around in-their-prime stars like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or Patrick Corbin, but there's a number of veterans who can still contribute available on the market.
It's difficult, however, to predict how an aging star will perform late in his careers, but Statcast™ can help. MLB.com's Mike Petriello looked at the sprint speed -- which tracks top running speed in feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window -- to evaluate some of the top over-30 free agents.
The results revealed promising news for Mike Moustakas -- whose speed recovered in 2018 after a down 2017 that was likely the result of his knee injury -- and helped quantify the affect of injury on Brian Dozier's effectiveness.
Andrew McCutchen hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, despite turning 32 last month, making him a solid fit for a contender with outfield needs, while Daniel Murphy's speed steadily rebounded after he started slow coming off micro-fracture knee surgery last offseason. More >
Betances wants the Yankees to sign Machado
Nov. 14: As the Yankees consider whether to make a run at free-agent infielder Manny Machado, one New York player gave the potential move his full endorsement Tuesday.
"I think he'll put us over the top," Yankees reliever Dellin Betances said. "We were short last year. Things could have gone our way, but they didn't. Adding a guy like that would help any team. Our lineup is already impactful, so adding a guy like that would be pretty crazy."
Betances and Machado were teammates for the Dominican Republic in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, and they have plenty of experience as opponents from Machado's years with the Orioles.
"I played with him in the Classic and got a chance to develop a good relationship with him over the years, playing against him," Betances said. "I'm hoping that we get him. I'm keeping close tabs on it. It's not my decision, but that would be a big piece for the team. We have a good team, but adding a guy like that, that can play at a high level and has played at a high level for quite some time, we would be great."
Finding trade matches for Greinke
Nov 14: There's no shortage of quality starting pitching available this offseason, via free agency (think: Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, etc.) or possibly by way of a trade (read: Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco, etc.). Is it time to add one more name to the latter list?
While there hasn't been quite as much buzz about it, Zack Greinke has been floated as a chip in the wake of reports that the D-backs could consider becoming sellers and swapping their two biggest stars -- the right-hander himself and/or Paul Goldschmidt, as MLB.com's Steve Gilbert discusses -- as MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi discusses on MLB Network.
Video: D-backs to become sellers this offseason?
So which teams could be the best fits for Greinke, one of the most durable, consistent, top-of-the-rotation arms around?
MLB.com's David Adler has come up with a list of three strong club candidates, all of whom could use a high-end starter and have the funds to cover all or most of Greinke's massive contract ($104.5 million through 2021), depending on the potential return headed back to Arizona.
Greinke is 35 years old, but he remains healthy and productive, turning in remarkably similar seasons in 2017 (3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.8 K-to-BB ratio) and '18 (3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 4.6 K-to-BB ratio).
Trout needs help. Can Corbin provide it?
Nov 14: With Mike Trout under control for just two more seasons, the clock is ticking for the Angels to build a competitive team around him. With that in mind, MLB.com's Richard Justice puts the club third on his list of teams that could spend big in free agency this offseason.
Justice writes that Los Angeles needs "pitching, pitching and more pitching," and the best starter on the market is arguably Patrick Corbin, making the left-hander a realistic target.
Given their recent history with pitchers undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Angels may be hesitant to pursue Corbin, who had the procedure in 2014. Dallas Keuchel would probably be a safer option, but the Angels can't really afford to be conservative as they try to close the gap between themselves, the Astros and the A's.
With Garrett Richards entering free agency after undergoing Tommy John surgery last season, and Shohei Ohtani also recovering from his own Tommy John procedure, the Angels need an ace. Los Angeles can't lean too heavily on any of the top six pitchers on its current depth chart, as all have dealt with significant injury problems.
Are the Reds willing to pay up for a top free-agent starter?
Nov. 14: The Reds need pitching and are expected to spend aggressively this offseason, but MLB.com's Richard Justice writes that the contract demands of Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel -- arguably the top two starters on the market -- may be out of Cincinnati's "comfort zone."
Justice notes that the Reds could sign multiple starters, but they may look at less expensive pitchers. Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton stand out as attractive options from the second tier.
Another factor that might deter the Reds from pursuing Corbin or Keuchel is the fact that they'll need to surrender a Draft pick to sign either pitcher after both rejected qualifying offers. Given the state of the team, adding a big-name starter won't make Cincinnati an instant contender, but signing two reliable arms would help.
Would a Corbin/Donaldson duo be a better buy than Harper?
Nov. 14: The Phillies and the Cardinals placed first and second on MLB.com's list of teams that are ready to spend big this offseason, with Richard Justice noting that both clubs would be a great fit for Bryce Harper. But Justice also mentions a potential alternative for both teams -- signing Patrick Corbin and Josh Donaldson.
MLB Network insider Jon Heyman projects Harper will sign for $330 million over 11 years, giving him an average annual value of $30 million. Agent Scott Boras is believed to be asking for upwards of $400 million, and there's a good chance Harper will end up making at least $35 million per year.
Per Heyman's projections, the Corbin/Donaldson duo would cost $38 million on average, with Corbin landing a five-year contract for $100 million and Donaldson signing for $36 million over two seasons.
There are risk factors associated with both approaches, but signing Corbin and Donaldson may have more short-term upside than using that money on Harper alone. Corbin was worth 6.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2018, per FanGraphs, while Donaldson averaged 6.9 WAR per season from '13-17. If the Phils or Cards got the best versions of Corbin and Donaldson, it could put them over the top in their respective divisions.