Assessing the state of the AL East in mid-May

The American League East is a lot of things. It’s never boring.

That appears to be the case again this season. The Rays and Yankees have been the best teams in the AL by a considerable margin. The Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been … interesting, albeit not for the same reasons as Tampa Bay and New York.

We’re at the point of the schedule where they’re all getting a chance to prove themselves against one another. The Orioles just pulled off a much-needed series win over the Yankees in Baltimore. The Rays just won a series against the Blue Jays, although Toronto exhaled with a walk-off win in the finale.

We’ll learn more about the division through the crucible of its competition, including an Orioles-Rays series and a Jays-Yankees matchup next week. But with about a quarter of the season in the books, let’s check in with MLB.com’s beat writers about what we’ve seen in the AL East.

1. What’s gone right for the team you cover?

Jake Rill, Orioles beat reporter: Before the O’s took two of three from the Yankees at Camden Yards this week? Not a lot. That’s why the series felt like a potential turning point for Baltimore, especially after how terribly its previous meeting with New York had gone (a four-game sweep in the Bronx from May 1-4 in which the Orioles never led and were outscored 39-10). But easily the most consistent bright spot has been Adley Rutschman’s return to his All-Star form from 2023 and the first half of ‘24. The 28-year-old catcher is hitting .291 with an .892 OPS, and he clubbed his sixth homer of the season in Wednesday’s 7-0 win over the Yanks.

Ian Browne, Red Sox beat reporter: Judging by the record, you can tell that not very much has. However, a couple of things stand out. The starting pitching, despite a recent IL stint for Sonny Gray and a current one for ace Garrett Crochet, has been solid for a while, particularly now that Brayan Bello has gotten himself on track in a bulk-innings role. The 1-2 punch in the back of the bullpen (Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman) has been stellar, if not utilized enough because the team hasn’t had enough late-inning leads. Wilyer Abreu is having a strong season at the plate and another Gold Glove-caliber one in right field.

Bryan Hoch, Yankees beat reporter: The picture looked a lot better before they stumbled through a 1-5 trip to Milwaukee and Baltimore, but the starting pitching has been excellent. Cam Schlittler (1.35 ERA) is becoming a legit problem for the league. Aaron Boone has said the bullpen is “better than people think,” and even with a few hiccups, they’ve looked sharper than expected. No one should be surprised that Aaron Judge (16 HRs) is playing at an MVP level, but now he’s got Ben Rice (13 HRs) putting up numbers alongside him. Rice is probably going to be an All-Star this year.

Adam Berry, Rays beat reporter: Um… everything? The rotation has been tremendous, led by the trio of Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan and Nick Martinez. After a shaky start, the bullpen has been mostly solid. The lineup has three stars (Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero), an emerging star (Chandler Simpson) and a bunch of complementary parts who don’t strike out and lean into their skill-sets. Kevin Cash is managing it all wonderfully. They’re winning at home (14-4) and on the road (14-10). They’re beating good teams and bad ones. They’re 20-4 against the AL and 10-2 against the division.

Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays beat reporter: If one thing has gone right for this team, his name is Kazuma Okamoto. The Japanese star looks like a headache for the rest of this division, easily leading the Blue Jays in home runs (10) and RBIs (27). Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, he’s been a bit of a one-man show at times, but this lineup needed a true cleanup hitter. When Okamoto’s been at his best, it feels like the Blue Jays have Edwin Encarnación back in the No. 4 spot, with some solid defense as a bonus. The bad news has outweighed the good, but Okamoto has been a revelation.

2. What’s gone wrong?

Rill: Before the O’s took two of three from the Yankees at Camden Yards this week? Quite a bit. The defense has been sloppy. The fundamentals haven’t been great. The injury bug has returned -- 13 players are currently on the IL and 19 have spent time there this season. The offense hasn’t quite lived up to its potential. But it’s hard to win games with a rotation ERA of 5.04, a mark that ranks 28th in MLB ahead of only the Rockies (5.21) and Astros (5.18). Kyle Bradish appears to be back on track, especially after his six scoreless innings of one-hit ball vs. New York on Wednesday. Baltimore needs more of its starters to follow suit.

Browne: Offense. As in, not nearly enough. The lineup was a concern heading into the season, but nobody predicted it would be this anemic. Even at hitter-friendly Fenway, the Sox haven’t been able to take care of the comfortable dimensions. In fact, Boston has hit better on the road. There are simply too many players who have slumped for most of the season, including Jarren Duran, Trevor Story and Caleb Durbin. Roman Anthony struggling and then suffering a right wrist sprain that recently put him on the injured list hasn’t helped either. For the Red Sox, the path back to success starts with getting the bats going.

Hoch: Stop me if you’ve heard this before about a Yankees season – injuries are piling up. Let’s begin with the uncertainty about Max Fried’s situation after he walked off the mound with left elbow discomfort Wednesday in Baltimore. They just got Carlos Rodón back and have Gerrit Cole on the way, but losing Fried for any length of time isn’t ideal. Jasson Domínguez crashed into a wall, and Giancarlo Stanton hurt himself jogging. They need to get the bottom half of the lineup going; maybe you can’t have everyone firing on all cylinders at once, but there are too many automatic outs down there. Oh, and if Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going to put up a 50/50 season … he’s going to need an amazing second half.

Berry: With everyone else essentially performing up to expectations, the struggles of center fielder Cedric Mullins (.432 OPS) stand out. The Rays lost starter Ryan Pepiot to season-ending hip surgery, putting more pressure on reliever-turned-starter Griffin Jax and others in the rotation. When they struggled the first couple weeks of the season, it was due mostly to error-filled defense and bullpen breakdowns. Those situations aren’t totally resolved, as Caminero’s work at third has been inconsistent and the bullpen is still missing key arms in Edwin Uceta and Manuel Rodríguez, although the relievers have been much better lately.

Matheson: How long do you have? The Blue Jays could add a sixth expansion team to the East with their IL alone in 2026. In March, we were talking about how on Earth this team would fit seven -- maybe even eight -- MLB-caliber pitchers into its rotation. Today, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Max Scherzer and Cody Ponce are all on the IL and Eric Lauer has been designated for assignment. This lineup has also struggled without Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Addison Barger for extended periods, all while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has looked more like a singles hitter than a superstar. The 2025 World Series run is what it looks like when everything goes right. So far, ‘26 is the opposite.

3. Has anything changed your preseason opinion about the team you cover?

Rill: It felt like the Orioles may have been getting slept on before the season started, but some of the expected concerns have proven to be true -- namely starting pitching, outfield defense and too many missing pieces due to injury. Whether this is a postseason-caliber squad or not, I expected a better start under new manager Craig Albernaz, as it felt like there was rejuvenated energy throughout this organization all winter and spring (the signing of Pete Alonso had a lot to do with that) that would carry into the regular season. This team could still get hot, get healthy and get into October. But it may be trying to sneak in as one of the final Wild Cards, rather than be sitting in a playoff position throughout the summer months.

Browne: By no means did I think the Red Sox would be an offensive juggernaut, but I thought they’d score enough to support a potentially elite pitching staff. So far, it just hasn’t happened. I think many of us thought Anthony was a star in the making based on what he did after his call-up last season. But Anthony struggled to make much of an impact before landing on the IL. For the Sox to reach their potential, Anthony will need to emerge into one of their top weapons on offense.

Hoch: A few small things, maybe. Generally speaking, the “Run it Back” Yanks have played like the team I watched last year and again in the spring – not a perfect roster, but talented enough to bludgeon teams on occasion, win consistently, and reclaim the division at the end of 162 games. I still see that all in the cards. José Caballero has overperformed what I envisioned, especially defensively. Chisholm and Ryan McMahon are underperforming where I would’ve guessed. Paul Goldschmidt may have more in the tank than people realized, too.

Berry: A lot of things have, yes. Seeing McClanahan pitch like his old self, if not better, makes the rotation even more imposing. Martinez has made some real changes, joining a long list of pitchers who got better with the Rays. The outfield defense has been really good under new coach Corey Dickerson. And they’ve really embraced different ways to get the most out of their lineup, including small ball. I mean, they’re bunting! For years, smart teams weren’t supposed to do that! And now the Rays are doing it all the time! As much as anything, the wins they’re stacking now give them so much more margin for error the rest of the way. Even if they go .500 from here on out, they’ll have 88 wins -- likely enough to get back into the postseason for the first time since 2023.

Matheson: Yes, because we all came into this season with memories of Guerrero’s 2025 postseason still fresh. The first quarter of this season has looked nothing like that, and my opinion of the Blue Jays will always be tilted heavily by my opinion of how Guerrero is playing. We keep hearing that it’s early for Guerrero, just like it’s early for this team, but games in April and May count just as much as the ones in late September. The ‘25 season taught us that a team’s ceiling is all that really matters. So far, their ceiling doesn’t feel as high as it did two months ago.

4. How has the season so far changed your opinion about the division race?

Rill: Did anybody expect the Rays to be in first place beyond the first week of the season, much less in mid-May? Tampa Bay’s surprise start has to be the No. 1 reason why most projected standings are needing to be revised. It feels sustainable, too -- especially because the Rays have been known to do this type of thing in the past. The Yankees are on par with my expectations, the Blue Jays have started shockingly slow, and while I didn’t think the Red Sox would be at the top of the division standings, I didn’t foresee such an early managerial change. But this is the AL East -- anything can (and somehow will) happen. The race isn’t over by a longshot. It would truthfully not surprise me too much if any of these five teams took the crown.

Browne: I really liked the Yankees going into the year and they’ve been terrific. And while I thought the Rays would have an uptick being back in the comforts of Tropicana Field, their sizzling start has been one of the biggest surprises in the game. It consistently amazes me how Cash gets the most out of his roster every year. I was impressed watching the Rays up close at Fenway last weekend, particularly how strong their execution was in the art of small ball. I also didn’t expect the Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays to get off to such shaky starts.

Hoch: If we go back to the spring, my guess was that every team was going to finish above .500 in the AL East, with the possible exception of Tampa Bay – and they would be around 78 wins or so. Whoops, can I have a do-over, please? I thought this would be a season-long scrap with New York and Toronto separated by a few games. I would not have guessed Alex Cora would be out in Boston. But watching that series at Fenway, I definitely was thinking … wait, are you sure these are the Red Sox?

Berry: Maybe October was too fresh in my mind, too, Keegan, because I really thought the Blue Jays were going to build on that run. Instead, they’ve been banged up and struggled. Similarly, I thought the Orioles were going to have enough offense to make up for their lack of pitching, and I thought a deep rotation plus good defense would carry the Red Sox somewhere other than firing Cora before the Rays’ first trip to Fenway. There’s still a lot of talent on all those teams, so maybe they’ll get back in the race. Otherwise, it looks like it’ll be the Rays and Yankees duking it out atop the division this year.

Matheson: I didn’t expect the Rays to be this good and I didn’t expect the Red Sox to turn into… whatever that’s turned into. In Toronto, there’s always so much focus on New York. The Yankees are the big brother of the AL East, which is why beating them in the ALDS last year felt so much bigger than just an ALDS. It’s distracted from the fact that the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball again, though, and the Blue Jays have had a front-row seat to that over the past couple of weeks. If the Rays and Yankees are this division’s juggernauts, that’s one tough hill to climb.