Assessing the state of the AL Wild Card race

Technically, there are 10 teams in the mix for three spots in the American League Wild Card race. But with the Red Sox and Yankees occupying the top two spots by a wide margin, the “race” really comes down to this: eight teams are vying for one spot, and, interestingly, all are hovering around the .500 mark, or are slightly below it.

It’s been that kind of year, where a bevy of teams that have struggled more than they’ve succeeded are still making a push. Mathematically, they’re all very much in this race, and with approximately 30 games remaining in the regular season, all it would take is one good week to pull away from the pack.

So let’s dive in. Among the AL teams fighting for that third Wild Card spot are the Guardians, Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, Mariners and Tigers, with the Astros and Rangers also in the mix for both the AL West lead and Wild Card positioning.

Based on strength of schedule, how realistic would it be for your team to pull away from the pack?

Brian McTaggart, Astros beat reporter: The Astros (66-67) weren’t able to take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule, going 3-6 in a homestand last week against the Mariners, Angels and A’s to fall back to .500. Their remaining schedule is much tougher, with series at the Phillies and Rays and home series against the White Sox, D-backs and Braves. Houston is 24-14 against teams that were at .500 or above.

Kennedi Landry, Rangers beat reporter: The Rangers have the 10th-hardest remaining strength of schedule, including nine against teams they are battling against in the hunt: the Mariners, Blue Jays and Twins. Texas is 25-32 against teams at .500 and above and 41-35 against teams below .500. The remaining schedule is split almost evenly between those in contention and those out of it, but that doesn’t really matter for this Rangers team, which has not exactly done well against teams it’s “supposed” to beat over the last month, including a 2-5 road trip between Anaheim and Oakland earlier this month. The road to the postseason will have to include winning games they are meant to win.

Tim Stebbins, Guardians beat reporter: The Guardians entered Wednesday with the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule (.471) in MLB. They have every opportunity to pull away in this race, and they have recently been capitalizing on a light stretch of schedule. Cleveland has gone 8-1 over the past week against the Giants, Rockies and Angels. Going forward, the Guardians’ destiny is in their own hands. They will open September with 16 straight games against the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, Twins and White Sox.

However, don’t discount the Guards in the AL Central race quite yet. They sit just 2 1/2 games behind the White Sox.

Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays beat reporter: The Blue Jays don’t have a daunting schedule, but are they really the team that’s going to reel off the biggest hot streak from this group? Their longest winning streak this season is four games. Playing slightly above .500 the rest of the way is certainly in the cards, but this tight race is going to be won by a team that goes on a true streak. Something would need to change quickly with Toronto’s offense for that to be possible.

Matthew Leach, Twins beat reporter: Well, the question specifies “based on schedule,” and based on schedule, the Twins have the opportunity. It’s one of the weaker run-ins of any team, with series against the plummeting Tigers and noncontending Angels and Giants mixed with matchups against the more daunting White Sox, Yankees and Guardians. This has been a pretty good team against the AL and a bad one against the NL, and Minnesota’s only remaining Interleague games are in San Francisco. That’s good news.

Jake Rill, Orioles beat reporter: The O’s are in a great position to rack up some wins over the next week, as the next two stops on their three-city, nine-game road trip are West Sacramento and Denver, where they’ll face the worst team in the AL (A’s) and the worst team in the NL (Rockies). But the rest of September will be much tougher, as the O’s will play three teams currently in playoff spots (Brewers, Yankees, Red Sox) and two in this race (Guardians and Blue Jays). So, there are some challenges lying ahead for Baltimore.

Daniel Kramer, Mariners beat reporter: This might be the leading reason why the Mariners are in such a prime position to think even bigger than the Wild Card -- and instead secure the division. Seattle has had the Majors’ most difficult schedule in August, with all nine of its series against teams either in postseason position or in close proximity. That included a 4-2 homestand against the Cubs and Phillies, two sure bets to play in October. Per Elias, it was MLB’s most difficult schedule in August, but the Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule once the calendar flips, with a combined 17 games against the Angels, A’s and Rockies. If they reach September within just a few games of first place, they’ll probably be the favorites to claim the AL West crown.

Jason Beck, Tigers beat reporter: The good news for Detroit is a stretch of games against other teams in the race starting next week: three games in Minnesota, four games in Cleveland, then three more against the Twins in Detroit. The Tigers also have a three-game trip to Toronto the following week. If they get hot again like they were just a few weeks ago, they can get back in a good position in a hurry. But they have to do it with an injury-depleted lineup and a rotation that, while very talented, no longer has Tarik Skubal or Casey Mize. But as Max Clark pointed out, Detroit’s odds are better now than they were two years ago before it came out of nowhere to take a Wild Card spot. In fairness, it’s hard to get much lower than the 0.2% chance the Tigers had in ‘24 without being eliminated.

Mark Feinsand, senior national reporter: I like the Blue Jays’ chances based on their schedule. Toronto has a series or two remaining against most of the teams it’s battling for this spot: Mariners (three games), Guardians (three), Orioles (six), Tigers (three) and Rangers (three). The rest of the schedule is weak, with the Royals (four), Athletics (three) and Reds (three) on the docket. They’re done with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, and if the Blue Jays can pull themselves together -- a big if, of course -- they can sneak into the playoffs to give themselves a chance to defend their AL crown.

What has been the biggest hurdle for your team in the last several weeks that has prevented them from making a push?

McTaggart: Yordan Alvarez, the AL MVP frontrunner and AL Player of the Month in July, has only one homer in August, and leadoff hitter Jeremy Peña has cooled off in August as well. When those two aren’t hitting like they did in the first half, the offense gets stagnant. Houston has gone 13 consecutive games (since Aug. 10) without a starting pitcher finishing six innings, which has put a heavy load on a bullpen that’s been among the Majors’ best since May 1.

Landry: Everything? Where to start? The health of key players (Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung), the regression of a rotation that was MLB’s best in 2025 and a dramatically inconsistent offense all have a hand in the Rangers’ inability to go on a run and grab hold of the division. It also hasn’t helped that the depth at the upper levels of the Minors has not provided capable reinforcements on either end of the ball.

Stebbins: Things have evened out of late, but before this recent surge, it was the inability to play a complete game. When the Guardians pitched well, their offense was quiet. When they were productive at the plate, their pitching struggled. It was uncanny. The pitching staff has been the club’s backbone this season and has continually masked the offense’s collective struggles. It’s unrealistic to expect that for 162 games, though.

Matheson: If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could wake up tomorrow as the 2025 postseason version of himself, you could call the race. With peak Vladdy, the Blue Jays are the best team in the race, but that just isn’t their reality. Without him, this is a singles-hitting team that has struggled to hit with runners in scoring position, which is a dangerous combination. Toronto is pitching well enough despite its injuries and is playing elite defense, but the offense continues to hold the club back from making a true run.

Leach: It’s a lot of things, but it starts with the struggles and then absence of Joe Ryan. The right-hander earned an All-Star berth with a brilliant first half, but he hasn’t been right since then, struggling out of the break before landing on the IL. The Twins entered the season with a ton of starting-pitching depth, but it’s been stretched to the brink with a string of injuries, and with Ryan not setting the tone, the starting five has searched for form. That in turn has taxed the bullpen, which was fortified at the Deadline but has scuffled a bit lately.

Rill: Offensive inconsistency, which is a bit surprising, considering many thought pitching would be the Orioles’ weak point in 2026. Instead, the starting rotation has been great and the bullpen has been solid enough. Meanwhile, the bats are too up and down. Baltimore’s lineup has so much potential, but there are too many times when it gets shut down completely. It hasn’t helped that Gunnar Henderson is having the least productive season of his MLB career.

Kramer: It’s been a maddening four months because Seattle’s struggles have been so widespread. It starts with the offense, which has featured an all-time drop-off from Cal Raleigh (though he’s legitimately starting to heat up). He’s been a big reason why the Mariners experienced MLB’s third-largest drop-off in slugging percentage. Yet it’s also been the volatility within their rotation, which has arguably the AL’s biggest upside but has also been susceptible to unpredictable clunkers -- and across the entire group. But the entire roster is starting to collectively put it all together, which is why they’ve won seven of their past 11.

Beck: The Tigers were able to withstand losing Skubal and Mize at the Trade Deadline thanks to Jacob Melton and Jackson Jobe. But Riley Greene’s right hamstring injury, coinciding with a deep slump from Dillon Dingler and continued injury woes for Kerry Carpenter, has stalled what had been a rejuvenated Detroit offense. Kevin McGonigle and Colt Keith have taken on the burden of left-handed-hitting run producers, and neither is really that kind of hitter at this point. Brett Callahan jumped from holding his own at Triple-A Toledo to batting fifth, sixth and even leadoff in his first month in the Majors, and that’s a tough route for a 13th-round Draft pick in 2023 who hadn’t played above High-A ball until this year. And the bullpen is still a mess.

Feinsand: I’ll stick with the Jays here since I have my pick: They need Vladdy to be Vladdy. He hasn’t been himself all year -- he hasn’t hit a home run at home this season! -- but if he can find his classic form, it will be an enormous addition down the stretch. Pitching hasn’t been the problem -- Toronto ranks second in the AL in ERA over the past month -- but its numbers with runners in scoring position have been bad. Clutch hits are a must if the team wants to play into October.

Give us a “pitch” how your team could win the Wild Card -- what positive signs have you seen that suggest they could get hot at the right time?

McTaggart: Alvarez is still the best hitter in the Majors and he could be poised for a big push entering the final month of the regular season, especially with a chance to win the AL Triple Crown. Peña is starting to show signs of coming out of his slump, and Daulton Varsho -- acquired at the Trade Deadline from the Blue Jays -- has settled into his new surroundings and is looking more comfortable at the plate. If they can find some consistent starting pitching, they could make the postseason.

Landry: Seager is back and he has the ability to carry a team. The franchise shortstop has endured three injured-list stints this season, two for nagging back issues and one with a concussion. And when he was healthy, he wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. At the time of his most recent activation on July 31, Seager had hit just .182 with 10 home runs, six doubles, 25 RBIs and 28 walks in his 51 games. But he’s looked more like himself this month. In August, he’s slashing .305/.380/.476 with three home runs, five doubles and nine RBIs.

Stebbins: The Guardians’ offense has been inconsistent at best for most of the season. It has been much more productive this month. Through July, Cleveland had a collective .231/.310/.369 slash line and ranked 29th in MLB in runs scored (432). In August, the Guardians are eighth in runs (110) and have slashed .267/.343/.385. Trade Deadline acquisitions Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe have lengthened the lineup. Steven Kwan has enjoyed a dramatic in-season turnaround, and José Ramírez may be finding himself as he gets further removed from his left hamate surgery. Sustaining that production is the biggest key.

Matheson: Manager John Schneider has pointed to the “law of averages” often this year, which essentially suggests that it can’t get much worse. That’s not the most inspiring take, but there’s something to it. The Blue Jays have dealt with a stunning number of pitching injuries and have lived with Guerrero Jr.’s OPS below .700 all season. He’s homered just seven times. Despite all of this, Toronto is still part of this race, so the bar isn’t high here. Some timelier hitting could quickly flip this for the Blue Jays and they face many of these contenders down the stretch before finishing at home against the Reds. Their schedule is giving them every possible opportunity to get back into this.

Leach: They can hit. Even with Byron Buxton potentially headed back to the injured list, this is a deep lineup that has been productive most of the season. The way this comes together, if it does, is the offense regains its first-half form, Taj Bradley steps up and pitches like a No. 1, the rest of the rotation finds an upswing, and the reconfigured bullpen pitches like it’s capable. The thing is, every unit of this team has at some point looked good enough. It’s a matter of lining those up at the same time.

Rill: It still feels possible for the O’s to make a run, largely because of their starting pitching and the play of Pete Alonso, who has been everything he was expected to be upon signing a five-year, $155 million deal this past offseason. Alonso has been carrying the offense of late, but there has been some encouraging play from others, as well. If the Orioles keep pitching well, Alonso continues to be a driving force and some injury reinforcements help -- namely utility man Blaze Alexander, who was among the club’s top hitters before fracturing his left hand on July 12 -- there’s still a path to the postseason.

Kramer: It’s threefold -- 1) that they’re starting to click, 2) are doing so within striking distance and 3) as the schedule gets much more favorable. If Raleigh’s resurgence is legitimate, it could be seismic. Because when this offense can get any traction, Seattle has a good chance to win any given game. The Mariners are 47-18 when scoring at least four runs compared to 17-52 when plating three or fewer.

Beck: The Tigers have a combination of players who remember their 2024 charge into the playoffs out of a similar hole, and rookies who don’t know any better to think they shouldn’t be able to do it again. Greene should be back soon along with Matt Vierling. Carpenter has a chance to get back. And the rotation is still plenty good with Melton and Jobe at the top. They need a LOT of things to go right, but with so many matchups left against fellow contenders, one more hot streak could get them back in position.

Feinsand: The Guardians and Blue Jays have the pitching to make a run, which is what we’ve seen during their recent winning streak. Those two teams also face the weakest schedules down the stretch based on opponents' winning percentages, so their three-game set in Cleveland next week could be the determining factor in this race when all is said and done.