Who's more likely to turn it around, Mets or Phils? Let's debate

Both the Mets and Phillies entered the year with high expectations and were widely considered playoff contenders.

And yet both clubs are mired in brutal early-season slumps, with the Phillies having lost seven straight and the Mets in the midst of a 12-game skid, their longest since 2002.

At 7-16, New York sits in the NL East cellar with the worst record in MLB, and Philadelphia is just a game ahead of them at 8-15.

Could it really be this bad for both clubs, or is there any hope on the horizon? And if so, which fanbase has more reason for optimism? We asked a panel of MLB.com analysts to give their take.

MIKE PETRIELLO

This is a trick question, as someone who grew up about halfway between the two ballparks: neither fanbase has any optimism, hope, or reason to expect better. Or at least that’s how they like to position it.

Truth is, both teams had a lot of flaws coming into the season, and while some of those have been realized in expected ways, there’s also a little of “things are going as poorly as they could, in some unexpected and unsustainable ways.” Both teams are about to get a star back (Juan Soto in New York, Zack Wheeler in Philadelphia), and both teams have essentially identical playoff odds at FanGraphs right now (40%, even if it sounds too high).

But which team has the actual better bet of making noise? I don’t feel terribly strongly about this, but it’s the Mets, simply because the combo of “adding Soto” and “there is absolutely no way that Bo Bichette and Francisco Lindor can keep hitting like this after how much success they’ve had to date” can last. I think Nolan McLean is an ace. I’m a little worried about Wheeler’s velocity as he comes back. At this point, I don’t think either team makes the playoffs – but I think the Mets might have the better record.

VERDICT: Mets

MARK FEINSAND

Given that I picked both teams to reach the postseason (I always warn folks that I’m terrible at predictions!), I clearly came into the year believing both teams are legitimate contenders.

Each has struggling stars who should have positive regression at some point, and each is getting a star player back from injury (Juan Soto and Zack Wheeler). I’m giving a slight edge to the Phillies, as I like their pitching better overall and much like the struggling bats on the two teams, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola simply have to be better, don’t they?

The biggest reason I give the Phillies the edge here is the guy running baseball operations: Dave Dombrowski. Unlike most of his counterparts, Dombrowski isn’t afraid to make a bold move before the Trade Deadline, even if it means moving some top prospects. He stood by his word and made Andrew Painter untouchable, but if he sees an opportunity to address the holes in the roster this summer, he won’t hesitate to do so. I’m not sure the same can be said for David Stearns, who hasn’t historically been as aggressive as his Philly counterpart.

VERDICT: Phillies

ANTHONY CASTROVINCE

My concerns with both the Phillies and Mets have been realized, to extreme degrees. But I think one of those concerns is more likely to be resolved in-season than the other.

With the Phillies, it was a valid question whether the arrivals of youngsters Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter were enough to offset the realities of an aging roster in an increasingly young man’s game. They have a lot riding on Zack Wheeler coming back from surgery in his age-36 season, and of course that’s only one piece of a pitching staff whose overworked bullpen was strongly oriented around the now-injured Jhoan Duran. And Wheeler, of course, can’t help a top-heavy lineup.

With the Mets, the worry was how quickly a dramatically reshaped cast would have to congeal, and it’s safe to say … it hasn’t congealed. But the modern playoff picture can be forgiving in that regard. The Mets have their own shot of hope with the return of Juan Soto, and that’s an everyday player who can elevate a lineup in which there is plenty of reason to believe Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette aren’t this terrible. Don’t get me wrong: The Mets have major issues, particularly in the bullpen. But I doubt the lineup will remain historically terrible, and, for whatever it’s worth, they do have the slightly better run differential of these two disappointing teams (-27 vs. the Phillies’ -45).

VERDICT: Mets

DAVID ADLER

Flip a coin with these two teams. With all due respect to Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, the Mets have the best hitter in Juan Soto, and I think the signs are there for a big bounceback from Francisco Lindor the rest of the season. On the other hand, with all due respect to Nolan McLean, the Phillies have the best pitcher in Cristopher Sánchez -- who I think is going to win the Cy Young. And if Zack Wheeler bounces back from thoracic outlet syndrome and Jesús Luzardo's strong peripherals actually produce the improvement in his near-7 ERA that I think they will, Philly has the better rotation frontline.

So back to the coin flip. Right now mine's coming up Phillies. If either one of these teams is going to make the playoffs, give me the one that's been there four years in a row over the one that's 45-71 -- that's 26 games under .500 -- over its last 116 games. I think too many things have to start going right for the Mets, and the Phillies are just a little more likely to take care of a little more business.

VERDICT: Phillies

THOMAS HARRIGAN

The Phillies are muddling through a standard slow start -- the kind currently afflicting the Mariners, Blue Jays, Red Sox and several other playoff hopefuls. The Mets, on the other hand, are in what looks like a genuine crisis: 12 straight losses, plus a sub-.400 winning percentage dating back to last June. At first glance, it's hard to see why there'd be more optimism in Queens than in Philadelphia.

But here’s the thing -- the Phillies have been struggling to score runs even with veteran stars Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber putting up strong numbers and rookie Justin Crawford reaching base at a .377 clip. Phillies fans have to wonder just how much better their offense is going to get. Mets fans can at least hang their hopes on Juan Soto’s return from the IL, as well as notorious slow starters Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette eventually returning to form.

Sure, the Phillies’ rotation looks better on paper with Zack Wheeler on his way back. But the Mets' trio of Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes still stacks up well against most of the other NL Wild Card contenders they'll be chasing.

VERDICT: Mets