The 6 biggest winners of the Trade Deadline

With the MLB Trade Deadline dust settled, let's look at the winners: the clubs that most improved their chances to win now -- or in the future -- relative to the cost they paid.

Dodgers

No club had more incentive to be aggressive than Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are chasing something baseball almost never sees: a third consecutive World Series title. Only the Yankees (three times, most recently from 1998-2000) and Athletics (1972-74) have ever won three straight championships in the Divisional Era.

That's why the Dodgers were willing to part with a strong package of prospects for two-plus months of Tarik Skubal, the top arm available -- and the best left-handed starter in baseball.

The Tigers' return included Top 100 MLB Pipeline prospects Zyhir Hope (No. 25) and River Ryan (No. 68).

FanGraphs increased the Dodgers' World Series title chances from 25.7% to 31.4% after the deal, an enormous six-point jump that illustrates how significant the addition is.

Their chances are three times those of the second-ranking club, the Yankees (10.6%).

Moreover, the deal also reduced the chances of a primary rival in the NL, the Brewers, by a point to 9.4%. The Brewers were also reportedly involved in the bidding for Skubal.

And because the FanGraphs model doesn't include the estimated increased percentage of innings that a team's best arms take on in October -- due to extra off days and added urgency -- the model is selling short the impact an ace can have.

The 2001 D-backs are the blueprint. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling combined for 58.2% of Arizona's postseason innings after accounting for just 34.6% during the regular season, illustrating why playoff aces matter even more than projection systems capture. They played a different game in October.

If you're an executive chasing baseball immortality, there's no more valuable Deadline acquisition than a true ace.

Now, there are some health questions with Skubal. But following his return from an elbow procedure, Skubal has looked like himself, posting a 2.87 ERA with a 71-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio since June 13.

They also added left-hander Kris Bubic, who is currently on a rehab assignment, further strengthening an already elite pitching staff.

The Dodgers can take on more risk and can trade prospects more aggressively than almost any other club because they can replace talent externally thanks to their well-documented financial resources.

The Dodgers are operating rationally to chase history. But the trade is also another example of the competitive balance gulf that exists in MLB, fueled by a growing payroll and resource disparity.

Yankees

Few expected Luis García Jr. to lead the National League in slugging at the time of the trade to the Yankees.

His transformation from a contact-only hitter to increasing his bat speed (74 mph) and air-pull capabilities (19%) has led to a very real breakout with 23 home runs. Given the injuries the Yankees have had, Garcia's left-handed bat is a welcome and necessary addition.

The Yankees also added outfielder Heliot Ramos, whose underlying offensive indicators suggest there may be another level to unlock. Ramos was also unlucky in his home environment. Ramos owns a 110 career wRC+ on the road compared to 103 at Oracle Park. That's unusual and should change at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees upgraded their banged-up lineup without sacrificing an elite-level prospect.

Rays

We understand why many small- and mid-market teams operate in an incredibly rational manner, why they are hesitant to trade prospects. After all, in any given year, even a strong contender owns modest World Series title chances.

But sometimes there's a case to be made to be irrational and to go for it.

The Rays deserve credit for buying low on Freddy Peralta on Sunday, while also adding versatile right-hander Tyler Wells and breakout catcher Liam Hicks.

Peralta's numbers were down this year with the Mets but his underlying velocity (94.3 mph fastball velocity) is in line with recent seasons, and his location score (104 Location+) is stable. Few organizations have a better track record of extracting value through subtle adjustments, making Peralta a logical buy-low target.

Hicks' breakout is fueled by a drop in strikeout rate with improved ball-flight qualities, and Wells' pristine command and sub 3.00 ERA since the start of last season add depth.

The Rays now have a better chance to hold onto the AL East and a first-round bye. That's worth being irrational about.

Guardians

It's no secret the Guardians can pitch, and Cleveland built upon that strength by adding breakout arm Foster Griffin. Griffin's resurgence in Japan has carried over to the Majors (3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), giving Cleveland another quality starter without surrendering one of its top 20 prospects.

But it's also no secret the Guardians have struggled offensively -- and for years now. Cleveland entered the Deadline day ranked 29th in runs and 30th in slugging.

The Guardians also added Nathaniel Lowe in a trade with the Reds.

The lack of outfield production is particularly glaring and a long-running issue.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Guardians outfielders have combined for 136 home runs, last in the Majors, and 30 fewer than second-ranked Kansas City.

No contender needed a skill like Jo Adell's elite bat speed and power more than Cleveland, which acquired the power-hitting outfielder for catching prospect Jacob Cozart in a deal with the Angels.

Adell is not a perfect player. He's struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this year. He was league average last year. He's also not a great defender -- despite robbing three homers in a game this season -- but he possesses electric bat speed (97th percentile at 77.3 mph) and rare power skills, slamming 37 homers last year. He adds punch to a lineup sorely in need of it.

He's also been unlucky to date, suggesting there's upside for the Guardians to benefit from in a wide-open AL.

Pirates

Pittsburgh didn't need another cornerstone. The Pirates have a strong young core. What they needed was to better protect the late leads they were too often losing. Their bullpen is tied for sixth in the Majors with 19 blown saves.

They addressed that by adding an elite back-end arm Luke Weaver, who helps this year and next as he remains under control for 2027. The club also added veteran Kirby Yates and right-hander Lake Bachar on Monday. Along with the emergence of Mason Mongtomery from the left side and another bullpen addition of the talented but erratic Camilo Doval, the Pirates have addressed a major weakness without evaporating their farm system. That's a win.

Orioles

This one might feel a bit counterintuitive, but not every team trading for right now was a winner Monday. Some sellers were winners, and in this case it’s fair to say the O’s qualify.

Yes, the Red Sox needed help at catcher -- ranking 26th in the Majors with a replacement-level 0.2 fWAR at the position -- and addressed it by adding Adley Rutschman on Monday.

But Baltimore extracted a return more typical of a superstar than a solid regular with just over one year of club control remaining.

Baltimore acquired three top-five players in the Boston system in the deal -- right-handers Anthony Eyanson (MLB Pipeline's No 49 overall prospect and No. 2 in the system, now the O's No. 1), Kyson Witherspoon (ranked No. 4 in the system, a preseason top 100 player), and Boston's No. 5 prospect, outfielder Enddy Azocar.

The Orioles also netted a big league catcher Carlos Narváez.

Rutschman remains an above-average catcher, but not the perennial MVP candidate many envisioned early in his career. That makes Baltimore's return especially impressive, and they retain Samuel Basallo as their long-term answer at catcher.

It's been a disappointing year for Baltimore, and the club never won a playoff game with Rutschman, but this is a quality return to add around their core.