With 66 games left, Blue Jays face uphill battle in AL Wild Card race

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays face an uphill climb in the second half. It’s a steep, rocky one, and they’ve only got 66 games to pull this off.

There’s no more “early,” no more “lots of baseball left.” Those days have long faded, leaving the Blue Jays on the outside of a tangled AL Wild Card race. When the first pitch gets thrown on Friday against the White Sox, they’ll be 2 1/2 games out of that final Wild Card spot, a game ahead of the Tigers but still staring up at the Orioles, Astros, Red Sox and Twins, all of whom trail the Mariners, Guardians and Yankees for the three Wild Card spots.

Good luck keeping track of this for the next two months.

Kevin Gausman called this upcoming stretch “make or break,” and he’s right.

Even with some recent flickers of hope, the Blue Jays still stumbled into the break by dropping a series in San Diego. So, the team that returns Friday needs to be different, motivated and better.

“Sitting over the break with a not-so-great taste in your mouth will be good for some guys,” manager John Schneider said. “We’ll see a lot about ourselves when the break is over, when we come out at home. I’m always going to have confidence in these guys, all of them. They’ve all been through a lot, good, bad and indifferent. The fact that it hasn’t gone as smoothly as we’d hoped to this point gives me confidence that it will even out, hopefully, after the break.”

Coming out of the break: The White Sox

One of the better stories in baseball, the White Sox can beat you with haymakers. They rank fourth in MLB with 129 home runs and just got Japanese star slugger Munetaka Murakami back from the injured list, one of three White Sox to reach 20 home runs this season along with All-Star Miguel Vargas (21) and Colson Montgomery (23).

At 50-45, the White Sox sit atop the AL Central, but could just as easily end up in this Wild Card race as they battle the Guardians. Every game is crucial, but these games mean a little extra now.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will see old friend Anthony Kay (6-4, 4.23 ERA), back from a couple of seasons in Japan, before running into the White Sox top two starters in Davis Martin (9-4, 3.41 ERA) and Sean Burke (6-4, 3.41 ERA).

Make or break? The Rays

This four-game series against the Rays, beginning next Monday, July 20, is the big one, and you won’t find a single Blue Jays fan who’s looking forward to it.

The Blue Jays are just 1-5 against the AL East-leading Rays, and at this point, dropping three games to the Rays -- or being swept -- could be enough to tip the Blue Jays from buyers to soft sellers by the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline.

The Rays’ offense isn’t overwhelming outside of All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who is one of the brightest young stars in the sport, but the top of their rotation has been excellent. Tampa Bay has also played the brand of tight, mistake-free baseball that led the Blue Jays to an AL pennant a year ago. This Rays team feels like a team designed to give this version of the Blue Jays issues.

How the Blue Jays’ pitching lines up

Spencer Miles gets the start in Game 97 coming out of the break, and he’ll be followed in order by Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease and Gausman.

This suggests, for now, that Max Scherzer will make at least one more rehab start before it’s decision time, but the Blue Jays need their rotation to stabilize itself again. Cease is a legitimate contender for the AL Cy Young with a 2.56 ERA and a whopping 148 strikeouts over 98 1/3 innings, but beyond Cease, there have been too many short outings and inconsistencies.

Some extra rest should help Gausman get back to his old ways as Mr. Reliable, but it’s Yesavage and Bieber who feel like the big variables here. Yesavage is coming off a seven-walk performance over just 1 2/3 innings, while Bieber is still getting settled since returning from the IL, albeit with a more encouraging finish in his last start.

The Blue Jays don’t need a dominant rotation, just a steady one. This offense needs to jolt back to life if Toronto is going to make a real run, but in the meantime, they’ll need this group of pitchers to hold the line.