Can anyone catch The Miz in NL Cy Young race?

For the vast majority of the 2026 season, Jacob Misiorowski and his historic fastball have been the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award.

That’s still the case entering Friday, after Misiorowski bounced back from his worst outing of the year with 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the rival Cubs on Tuesday, including another nine strikeouts to add to his MLB-leading 236.

But is the NL Cy Young race actually … closer than you might think?

Misiorowski showed some miniscule signs over the past month that he actually is human, while Chris Sale, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez have largely continued to pitch like the superstars they are.

“The Miz” probably controls his own destiny for the award. If he continues to do his thing over his final few starts, he appears in line to win the NL Cy Young. But if things break a certain way over the next few weeks, Cy Young voters could have an agonizing decision on their hands.

Here’s the case for each National League Cy Young candidate.

All stats are entering Thursday’s action.

RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers

2026 (NL rank):

161 1/3 IP (9th)
1.95 ERA (1st)
236 K (1st)
0.80 WHIP (1st)
6.0 FanGraphs WAR (1st)
5.5 Baseball-Reference WAR (3rd)

Why he should win: Misiorowski has thrown 1,010 pitches at 100-plus mph this year. No other starting pitcher had thrown more than 337 (Hunter Greene in 2022) such pitches in a season in the pitch tracking era (2008). The 24-year-old has been simply mesmerizing on the bump, including incredible performances like his 15-strikeout, one-hit gem against the Phillies in June. And when you’ve been the favorite for most of the year, a few shaky performances in the final weeks may not even be enough to change that.

Of course, the raw numbers support The Miz, too. If he finishes first in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP, argue against him at your own peril.

Why he might not win: Misiorowski pitched his second-worst month of the season in August, albeit still at a standout 2.32 ERA. His first start in September was his worst of the year, going just four innings and allowing five runs to the Cubs. If he falters again in his final few starts, the other hurlers in this race have just been so good that things could continue to tighten.

Misiorowski is also trailing Luzardo and Sánchez in innings, and with the Brewers comfortably in first place in the NL Central and in good position for a top-two seed in the NL, there’s a scenario in which the club is careful with its ace down the stretch. After all, Milwaukee already backed off of his workload surrounding the All-Star Game this season.

LHP Chris Sale, Braves

2026 (NL rank):

150 IP (19th)
2.10 ERA (2nd)
184 K (5th)
1.01 WHIP (3rd)
5.4 fWAR (4th)
5.4 bWAR (4th)

Why he could dethrone Misiorowski: At 37 years old, Sale just keeps getting better. He currently holds the lowest starting ERA of his career and is throwing harder than ever before. The southpaw has been superb since the All-Star break, too, with a 1.90 ERA in his last eight starts. That includes a complete-game shutout with 11 K’s against the Dodgers, his first shutout since 2019.

The 2024 Cy Young winner likely won’t make up meaningful ground in the innings or strikeouts races. But Sale is the top threat to Misiorowski in ERA and WHIP, and he could make a move in terms of narrative down the stretch. Already on quite a hot streak, he’s in line to face the Phillies on Friday with the NL East race coming down to the wire. Sale will have a lot to say about Atlanta’s playoff positioning.

LHP Jesús Luzardo, Phillies

2026 (NL rank):

178 2/3 IP (3rd)
2.87 ERA (7th)
221 K (2nd)
1.08 WHIP (4th)
5.5 fWAR (3rd)
6.3 bWAR (2nd)

Why he could dethrone Misiorowski: Speaking of narrative and the NL East, Luzardo will face the Braves again on Saturday, the team against which he just spun a shutout with 12 K’s. Much like his club, Luzardo overcame a rotten start and has been among the game’s best pitchers in his first All-Star season. He has put up a 1.84 ERA in the second half and finished August with an MLB-best 1.31 ERA.

Luzardo already has a lead on Misiorowski in innings and has some serious momentum in September. If not for a 5.50 ERA through April, this race could be even closer. Luzardo only trails The Miz by five strikeouts since May 1. Imagine the Cy Young debate if Luzardo throws three more scoreless starts, and the Phillies overtake the Braves for the NL East?

LHP Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies

2026 (NL rank):

187 1/3 IP (2nd)
2.79 ERA (6th)
210 K (3rd)
1.21 WHIP (14th)
5.9 fWAR (2nd)
7.5 bWAR (1st)

Why he could dethrone Misiorowski: Sánchez had a rare clunker on Wednesday, allowing six runs in six innings to the Astros. But even after that, he holds the NL lead in bWAR and is 0.1 fWAR behind Misiorowski. He’s durable, continues striking batters out and keeps the ball in the yard. And, like Luzardo, Sánchez has been paramount to the Phillies’ mad dash to the finish line.

There were long stretches of the season when Sánchez was Misiorowski’s top competition for the Cy Young, but after Wednesday’s start, he’s perhaps fallen toward the back of the race. Still, he could widen his advantage in innings even further this month, and his WAR marks could sway some voters. It’s also hard not to wonder what might have happened if not for one errant Trea Turner throw on July 6.