This metric indicates these 2 prospects could be ready for the Majors

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- What determines whether Rockies trade acquisition TJ Rumfield and No. 70 MLB Pipeline prospect Charlie Condon are ready for Major League debuts?

Theoretically, there is a place on the Rockies’ Opening Day roster for right- and left-handed-hitting first basemen. But one of many reasons the Rockies’ fortunes have cratered in recent seasons is players were pushed into the Majors ready or not -- mainly because of a lack of depth. But neither Rumfield nor Condon is on the Major League 40-man roster, and a new front office has been building depth.

If nothing unforeseen -- good or bad -- happens, the Rockies don’t have to carry both first-timers. The evaluation will go beyond the fact that both hit three home runs in February Spring Training games. It’s quite possible that the choice between Rumfield and Condon comes down to velocity -- as in how fast they’ve progressed through the Minors.

There is another velocity that matters, but we’ll get to that later.

Rumfield’s development has taken time. He was a 12th-round Phillies pick in 2021 out of Virginia Tech who was dealt to the Yankees in November of that year. The Yankees’ ability to acquire Major Leaguers allowed him to develop into a hitter that posted an .825 OPS with 16 homers in Triple-A last year.

Acquired in a trade this winter for righty reliever Angel Chivilli, Rumfield, who turns 26 on May 17, learned to embrace his struggles more than his stats.

“Being able to fail in the Minor Leagues is a huge part of it,” said Rumfield. “Learning how to hit velocity is trial and error, learning things that work and don’t work.

“You need to be able to fail -- fail in the batting cages without judgement or embarrassment. Get something to fall back on in an environment where it is really hard -- maybe on a machine with the ball coming real hard, something that would never happen in a game.”

Condon’s professional story is different. He was the third overall pick in 2024 after a career of record-setting power at the University of Georgia. Even with two injuries -- a right hand injury that hampered him in a short stint at High-A Spokane in '24 and a fractured right wrist that delayed his 2025 by a month -- Condon backed his status.

Condon had strong numbers in 99 games at three levels (.268/.376/.444, 14 HR, 58 RBIs) including Double-A Hartford, and batted .337 in 22 Arizona Fall League games. But Condon took heed of a clear-eyed development plan.

“I’ve obviously got clear goals for what I’ve set out to do this spring,” Condon said. “None of that has to do with where I end up when Spring Training is said and done. I keep beating the same drum, playing the same baseball as I always have. I let everybody figure out where I’m headed after that.”

An important measure of a player’s readiness -- one the Rockies can afford to hone in on more than in the recent past -- is the ability to hit Major League velocity. The average four-seamer pops in at 95 mph.

Let’s take a look at both players on fastballs put in play that were 94 mph or greater:

2025 regular season

Rumfield: .314 batting average, .471 slugging percentage

Condon: .280 AVG, .440 SLG

2026 Spring Training before Sunday

Rumfield: 1-for-2 (.500)

Condon: 2-for-3

It’s still early for pitchers and hitters, and pitching plans don’t resemble the regular season (in what the pitcher is trying to accomplish, and in scouting opposing hitters) until the final 10 days. That’s why even in 2016 when then-Rockies prospect Trevor Story was hotter than the desert sun, feet were pressed firmly to the brakes until his power continued in the final days.

Both Rumfield and Condon have gone deep against decent velocity -- Rumfield against 92.4 mph, Condon the opposite way to right against 92.7.

“‘Rummy’ has been on stuff -- he’s on the fastball,” Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said. “He’s been swinging the bat well, moving well in the box -- rhythmic.

“With Charlie, I see an improvement on a daily basis. The first couple of games I saw him late on the heater -- with a very quick adjustment of late. At San Francisco, his homer was off velocity.”

Rumfield found his confidence in the Arizona Fall League in 2022, when he hit .400 with a home run and seven doubles and finished with a 1.059 OPS in 17 games.

“I was like, ‘Maybe I can do this professionally,’” Rumfield said. “Then '23 was my breakout [.222 average, but 17 homers and 58 RBIs in High-A and Double-A]. [Around] 80 games in, I dislocated my shoulder, but I had the best season slugging-wise. And I put more emphasis on trying to slug.”

If all continues, Rumfield looks in solid shape. Last year in the Minors, he had acceptable splits -- .844 OPS against right-handed pitching, .744 left on left, with plenty of previous years of plate appearances. A right-handed-hitting first base component makes sense, with Blaine Crim (currently nursing a left oblique strain) and utilityman Tyler Freeman (recovering from a back strain) possible candidates. Left-handed-hitting Edouard Julien, who left for Canada's World Baseball Classic entry after Sunday, counts first base among his positions, too.

In the big picture, if Condon doesn't break with the Rockies, the development time (most likely at Triple-A Albuquerque) only stands to make him better when the chance comes. But what if Condon proves a quick study in hitting against velocity, and how it can make a Major League career?

It would make him yet another inspiring (Trevor) Story.

“If you’re on the fastball, it’s going to give you enough time to be ready to adjust to breaking pitches,” said Condon, who is also receiving outfield work to increase his appeal to the big club. “You can see mistake pitches a lot easier, too. They are always going to have good ‘chase’ pitches and get you out on them, but you are ready to put good swings on the mistakes.

“You see good fastballs in the Minor Leagues. There are guys with really good stuff. But here, the difference is it’s more consistent.”