Daily Fantasy picks, predictions, odds for July 28
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Andrew Heaney, $7,400, Los Angeles Angels (-220) vs. Colorado Rockies (+180) — Oh hell no. I do not want to back Andrew Heaney as the biggest favorite tonight, Nope, nope, nope. This was very disappointing to see and even more so that I have to sit here and write about it. The matchup is great, I can’t deny that but my goodness, this is not a man to trust with a -220 line next to his name. When the Angels have been favored this season they’re just 28-25 (52.8%) overall and 20-16 (55.6%) as home favorites. I don’t think I need to say but but the Rockies don’t exactly perform well as underdogs, going 27-52 overall and and 10-36 as road dogs.
So why the disdain for Heaney? He’s facing a club that on the road against lefties has a .285 wOBA (24th) a .148 ISO (21st) and a 75 wRC+ (26th). Well, quite frankly, Heaney has simply been beyond someone we can trust. His command is great but he continues to struggle keeping the ball in the yard with a 1.5 HR/9, he gives up a lot of fly balls at 41.8% and his hard-hit rate has been climbing lately at 34.7%. You could argue he’s been a bit unlucky as his 5.32 ERA is accompanied by a 4.04 FIP but we’ve been saying this almost all season long. I simply can’t back him as such a huge favorite because he hasn’t warranted any reason to be one. This is more about how poor this Rockies offense can be. This is a complete stay away spot for me.
Highest Projected Total
Chicago White Sox (-180; 5.5 runs) at Kansas City Royals (+155; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — Three games on this slate have an over/under of 10 runs but this game has -110 on the over, which is the highest amongst the others. Both teams have been decent hitting the over, with the Royals doing so in 50.5% of their games and the White Sox at 49%. Interestingly enough, both teams thrive in the scenarios they’re in tonight. The White Sox take a big jump when on the road, covering the over 55.3% of the time and the Royals at 53.1% as the home team.
The White Sox are big favorites and have one of the highest team totals at 5.5 going against Kris Bubic ($5,100). He silenced this team in his lone start against them this season, going 5 2⁄3 innings allowing just one hit and striking out two. That feels like ages ago because since that time, Bubic has a 6.07 FIP, a 2.1 HR/9 and a 4.7 BB/9. He’s thrown back-to-back good starts but consider the opponents, going against the Tigers and Orioles. The White Sox are one of the top team in the league against lefties and sport a .337 wOBA, a .176 ISO and a 116 wRC+. The addition of Eloy Jimenez ($2,800) back into this lineup is huge, as they’ve slotted him in the cleanup spot. Jimenez last season had a .360 wOBA, .267 ISO and a 131 wRC+ against lefties last season. This is a great spot for the White Sox team total, as I would prefer that over the game total.
Weather Notes
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles — This looks to be the only game with some concern with rain. It’s not guaranteed that the rain will make its way over the park so this will need a second look closer to lock.
Splits to Start
These numbers now reflect the current 2021 stats and include pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP.
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Kris Bubic, .383, 6.38
Jorge Lopez, .371, 5.32
Tylor Megill, .365 5.88
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tanner Houck, .209, 1.22
Tyler Mahle, .253, 2.75
Zack Wheeler, .255, 2.25
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Chi Chi Gonzalez, .386, 5.79
Jordan Lyles, .382, 5.90
Patrick Corbin, .369, 5.73
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tylor Megill, .195, 1.89
Nestor Cortes, .202, 2.02
Walker Buehler, .226, 3.24
Lineup Starters
Pitcher to Build Around
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, $10,500 — Not many pitchers can say that they’ve done well against the Giants on numerous occasions this season but Buehler can. This will be the fifth start he’ll make against them, which has spanned a total of 27 innings. In those starts, he’s allowed only five runs (three earned) on 18 hits with 24 strikeouts and an average of 24.2 DKFP. His advanced numbers are excellent as well with a .233 wOBA, a 2.52 FIP and a 24% K%. I don’t usually go out of my way to target a pitcher against the Giants but Buehler has proven that he can pitch against this team
Stud Hitter to Pay For
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals, $4,600 — I feel like I’ve been picking a lot of Phillies players lately and I’m not sure how I feel about that. Nonetheless, getting Realmuto against the lefty Patrick Corbin is a matchup I do not want to miss. Corbin has been relying upon his slider much more as opposing teams have been crushing has fastball, hitting .358 off of it. Realmuto is an excellent fastball hitter and above average against the slider. Hitting in the heart of this lineup, I like this spot for Realmuto to knock in some runs and add onto his .347 wOBA, .176 ISO and a 117 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Save Big by Drafting
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, $2,800 — I don’t care if this is a chalky play or not, until the salary is correctly adjusted for Jimenez, you play him. In no universe should Jimenez be this cheap, especially going against a left-handed pitcher. As I mentioned earlier, Jimenez had a .360 wOBA, .267 ISO and a 131 wRC+ against lefties last season and now gets a struggling one tonight. He showed off that power last night in his second game back, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBI. It doesn’t take much for him to reach value at a comical $2,800 salary.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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