He's the best starter in baseball whose name you might not even know

On Wednesday night, Shohei Ohtani will toe the rubber at Dodger Stadium sporting a miniscule 1.06 ERA.

Ohtani, who is making a legitimate Cy Young Award case in 2026, owns an MLB-best 2.62 ERA since 2021 among the 99 pitchers with at least 500 innings. While that news is hardly surprising, it might surprise you who ranks second on that list.

Drew Rasmussen, who will pitch on Tuesday in Los Angeles, is sporting a 2.78 ERA across 518 1/3 innings since ‘21. That’s better than every pitcher sans the two-way star, who will also pitch in the upcoming Dodgers-Rays series. It’s better than Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler (2.86 ERA). It’s lower than Max Fried (2.89) and Tarik Skubal (2.95).

So, how exactly, has Rasmussen seemingly flown under the radar despite producing like one of the best inning-per-inning pitchers in baseball? And how is he doing this? Let’s dive in.

When he’s healthy, he’s elite

Rasmussen, who was acquired by Tampa Bay in the 2021 Deadline deal that sent Willy Adames to Milwaukee, has excelled whenever he’s been on the mound. Being healthy and available has been part of the equation with the right-hander, however.

Rasmussen threw a career-high 150 innings last year, just the second time he’s cleared 100 innings in a season. He hasn’t just missed time with minor issues, either -- Rasmussen has undergone not one, not two, but THREE elbow surgeries, the latest coming in July 2023. It’s hard enough to simply return to throwing a baseball through this many surgeries, but Rasmussen has admirably excelled despite it.

Outside of a 15 1/3-inning debut in 2020, Rasmussen has never posted an ERA above three in a season. It was 2.84 in both 2021 (76 innings) and ‘22 (146 innings). It was below three while navigating through his third elbow surgery from 2023-24. And last season, Rasmussen had a 2.76 ERA in 150 innings, which resulted in his first All-Star selection and a ninth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.

Rasmussen has been better than ever through his first 13 starts in 2026. His 2.71 ERA ranks 11th among qualified starters, while his FanGraphs’ version of WAR is tied for 16th best among all pitchers. The 30-year-old is missing more bats (27.3 percent strikeout rate) than usual and running a career-low 4.6 percent walk rate.

Rasmussen has been especially great of late -- he struck out a career-high 13 while issuing just one walk in seven scoreless innings in his last outing against the Red Sox. And in the start before that, he struck out nine Marlins hitters across seven scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and issuing no walks.

All of this is what's been so remarkable about Rasmussen’s journey -- all of the underlying indicators support a legitimately great starting pitcher. His career 2.87 ERA is not terribly far off from his 3.29 expected ERA (based on a pitcher’s quality and quantity of contact) or 3.25 FIP. He’s pretty much elite by any way you slice it.

Excelling via fastballs

In some ways, Rasmussen has been a poster boy for the three-fastball approach that’s become more common for today’s pitchers. Before Garrett Crochet, Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle, Rasmussen was slinging a four-seamer, sinker and cutter for a vast majority of his pitches.

In each season since 2022, Rasmussen has thrown that trio of fastballs more than 70 percent of the time. It’s been greater than 80 percent of the time each year since ‘24, including an 81.7 percent clip this season. He’s throwing this many heaters for good reason.

Since 2025, Rasmussen has struck out 181 batters via fastballs, second only behind Crochet’s 183. With Crochet on the injured list, there’s a decent chance Rasmussen takes over that lead during his start in L.A. The breakdown of his success on those pitches is fascinating given that he’s generating great results on each offering.

Rasmussen’s fastball breakdown, since 2025

Four-seamers: 32.4% usage // 75 strikeouts // .244 BA // .399 SLG
Cutters: 32.0% usage // 58 strikeouts // .175 BA // .288 SLG
Sinkers: 22.6% usage // 48 strikeouts // .194 BA // .270 SLG

Rasmussen’s four-seamer has been his bread-and-butter pitch most years, relying on it as his most-used offering most years. It sits at around 96 mph (it’s exactly 96.0 mph this year) and features above-average Induced Vertical Break (IVB) -- essentially how much perceived rise his heater gets. It’s one of the most effective four-seamers thrown by any starter.

The cutter, meanwhile, is Rasmussen’s most utilized pitch this season (33.3 percent), making it the second time it’s been his most frequent offering (also in 2023). It’s a 90 mph pitch that Rasmussen commands with precision against both-handed hitters -- he routinely commands it low and glove-side.

The sinker has been devastating, too, especially this season. Sitting at 95.5 mph with 16.1 inches of horizontal break, opposing hitters are only batting .123 with a .169 SLG against the pitch this season. With each pitch flashing strong characteristics and Rasmussen commanding them at will, he’s had remarkable success with his three heaters.

It’s been a remarkable journey for Rasmussen, who looks primed to make his second straight All-Star Game this summer. And on Tuesday in Los Angeles, he’ll look to show why he’s one of baseball’s best pitchers against a dynastic Dodgers club.