How Lindor's deal shakes up '21 SS class

The potentially historic shortstop free agent class of the winter of 2021-22 is suddenly short one of its most prominent members, now that Francisco Lindor has agreed to stay with the Mets for the next 11 seasons. That’s good for the Mets, obviously, and for Lindor, and for the other shortstops who now have one fewer superstar to compete against. It’s considerably less good for the teams who might have been interested in adding a player of Lindor’s caliber in free agency.

We've been waiting a long time to see where next year's group of shortstops end up, and now we've got to consider an update, since Lindor isn't available to sign and the Mets are all set at that position. What does this extension do? Let's find out.

First, let’s be clear about one thing: Calling the group of Lindor, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Javier Báez “potentially historic” isn’t hyperbole. In November, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince looked into it, and after noting that all five of the group had posted at least 10 Wins Above Replacement between 2017-19, pointed out that “never in the history of free agency have five position players from the same exact position entered the process having logged double-digit WAR tallies in the three seasons prior."

That doesn’t include 2020, obviously, when Seager and Story were very good, Lindor was fine, and Correa and Báez were down, but it’s difficult to know how much stock to put into a 60-game season anyway. It also doesn’t include Marcus Semien, who posted 14.8 WAR between 2017-19 and would have qualified, but was at the time already a free agent. But since he signed a one-year deal with Toronto, he’ll also be a free agent next winter, and it’s not yet clear whether his journey across the diamond to second base is a permanent one or not. Andrelton Simmons, who signed for one year with Minnesota, will be a free agent as well.

So there will still be a glut of talented shortstops, clearly, though with one deep-pocketed suitor in Queens no longer with a need at that spot. We know the Padres won’t be interested (having signed Fernando Tatis Jr. until, essentially, the end of time), a few other clubs (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson or the Nationals with Trea Turner) are probably happy with what they have -- or, if you include players like No. 1 overall prospect Wander Franco in Tampa Bay, will have soon -- and others won’t be ready to spend in the kind of range that these players will command.

But who will be? And what are they getting? We’ll set aside Simmons and Semien for the moment and focus on the remaining Big Four.

The shortstops

Let’s recap who, exactly, each of these stars are.

Báez (29 years old in 2022) posted a 116 OPS+ in 2017-19 before suffering through a wretched 2020 where he was the weakest regular hitter in the National League, a downturn he blamed both on lack of access to in-game video and the lack of fans in the seats. It didn’t affect his highly-regarded defense, however, because he’s tied for third-best defensive shortstop in baseball over the last three years, per Statcast metrics.

Extension rumor status: “Like I've said, I want to stay here,” he said in February. “I don't want to play for another team." Unlike some other players, including his teammate Anthony Rizzo, Báez appears willing to continue contract discussions into the season.

Correa (27 in 2022) was the first overall pick in 2012 and has since proven more than worthy of the honor, though a variety of injuries has meant he’s taken 500 plate appearances in a season just once, when he tallied 660 back in 2016. Still, he’s got a career 126 OPS+, and his 2020 season would have gone from “looking a little below-average” to “almost nailing his career line” if his strong six-homer postseason was included. He’s considered a strong if unspectacular defender; really, he just needs to stay healthy.

Extension rumor status: Well, when Houston offered him an extension worth a reported six years and $120 million recently, he said he thought it was “really low,” and he doesn’t seem to want to negotiate in-season, so a trip to free agency seems more likely than not.

Seager (28 in 2022) looked like a breakout star in 2016-17 (130 OPS+) before surgeries on his elbow and hip ruined his 2018 and impacted his 2019. He looked back in good form in 2020, posting a 152 OPS+ and then mashing eight homers on the Dodgers run to the title, being named MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series. While it’s long been thought he’d end up at third base, he’s been a competent defender at shortstop.

Extension rumor status: Crickets, mostly. The Dodgers reportedly made an effort to get a deal done this spring, but we haven’t heard much. They’ll also have to figure out the futures of Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler in the next few seasons as well. (Mookie Betts, as you may recall, is locked up for the next decade.)

Story (29 in 2022) has become one of baseball’s best all-around shortstops, posting a 122 OPS+ over the past three years, while also rating as one of the best defenders at the position and adding value on the bases, too. (Only seven players have stolen more bases than his 65 during the 2018-20 span.) He has the requisite home/road splits you’d expect from a Rockies batter, but as D.J. LeMahieu proved -- and as we attempted to explain when Nolan Arenado was traded -- there’s a whole lot more to that than it seems. He’s not a “product” of thin air.

Extension rumor status: Extension? After what happened with Arenado? It will be a surprise if he makes it through the season without being traded.

With no disrespect intended to Semien, Simmons and José Iglesias, those are the Big Four. Which teams are going to be shopping in this range?

The potentially interested teams

We went through each team’s projected 2022 shortstop depth charts and picked out a few notables, sorted here by no method other than “the order we thought of them.” We wanted teams that we thought will A) need a shortstop and B) potentially be ready to spend on one. It's possible, sure, that Gleyber Torres shows he can't play the position well enough defensively and forces the Yankees to move him to second. It's possible that Rafael Devers' third base defense is weak enough that he moves to first and Xander Bogaerts goes to third. It's possible the Reds want to just get a shortstop, which they did not do this past winter.

There are plenty of things that could happen. These, though, seem like the most likely clubs for a big splash.

Giants: This was immediately our first thought, because as we’ve said a few times this winter, we really like what they’ve done in terms of completely turning around the foundation of an organization that had begun to wilt badly after the glory years that brought them rings in 2010, ’12 and ’14. More importantly, they have a ton of money coming off the books in terms of expiring contracts this winter, among them long-time shortstop Brandon Crawford, who turned 34 in January. It’s true that their top prospect, Marco Luciano, is a shortstop; it’s also true that he’s 19 years old. It'd take a few years for him to arrive, by which point either he or the potential new signing might be ready for another position.

Rangers: OK, hear us out on this one. It seems like this Texas roster is a long way from competing, and we agree. But after cutting ties with their long-time middle infield duo of Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, they finally seem ready to look towards the future, and Story, a native of nearby Irving, Tex., would be the big splash they need. While we think Isiah Kiner-Falefa can field, the jury is out on his bat; either way, he’s not a roadblock if you can get Story. This might not be a “Story or bust” situation, but he seems considerably more likely here than, say, Correa.

Tigers: Hear us out on this one, too. Detroit’s long rebuild appears to be finding the light at the end of the tunnel, thanks to a collection of talented ready-now pitchers, the No. 3 pick in the upcoming Draft, and the likelihood that last year’s No. 1 pick, Spencer Torkelson, is a fast-mover. What they don’t have is an obvious long term shortstop, and we’re pretty far from convinced that Willi Castro can do enough to prove he’s that guy. At a certain point, the Tigers are going to have to go big to supercharge this young core. Shortstop would be a good place to start.

Dodgers: If they don’t re-sign Seager, they’ll obviously need someone. They don’t have a clear in-house replacement at shortstop unless they’re willing to try moving second baseman Gavin Lux back there, but he’s yet to play a Major League game at shortstop in parts of two seasons and has a lot to prove with his bat in 2021 first anyway.

Twins: Part of their math in signing Simmons to a one-year deal and moving Jorge Polanco to second base was that it wouldn’t take them out of the running for this group, and it’s difficult to count on top prospect Royce Lewis after he injured his knee in February, requiring season-ending surgery.

Educated guesses

It wouldn’t be a look ahead without predictions, would it? Obviously, a lot depends on who stays healthy and productive during the season, but based on what we know right now, we'll go with ...

Báez: Re-signs with Cubs.
Correa: Signs with old friend A.J. Hinch in Detroit.
Seager: Re-signs with Dodgers.
Story: Gets traded to the Brewers in July because the Brewers will want an upgrade at the Deadline and the Rockies will be sellers ... then signs with Rangers in the offseason.

That would leave the Giants out in the cold, though perhaps if Semien has a strong season, he’d like to return to his Bay Area roots. But if we're correct here, if two of the four remain with their current teams -- or even if they don't, if one re-signs and one is injured or unproductive -- that "potentially historic" group is going to look a lot thinner a lot faster. It's not the only reason the Mets paid to keep Lindor, of course; he's Francisco Lindor. But it's got to feel nice to know they've already got their man under contract for many years to come, and not have to worry about what they may or may not have been able to do next winter.