Giants should be sellers at Trade Deadline, but who could be on the move?

SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants came into the season with hopes of surging back into the playoffs for the first time since 2021.

Instead, they find themselves near the bottom of the National League West, a disastrous turn for a team that appeared to be built to contend after making big commitments to established veterans like Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman.

• Record at the break: 41-55 (Fourth in NL West, 19.5 games back)
• Record at the break last year: 52-45 (Third in NL West, 6.0 games back)
• Playoff odds: 0.5%, per FanGraphs
• Remaining Strength of Schedule: .499 (16th in the Majors)

First-year manager Tony Vitello was hired out of the University of Tennessee to try to bring some fiery energy to San Francisco, but the bold move hasn’t yielded the results the Giants were looking for thus far.

“We expected to kind of take the world by storm to start the season, and it didn't happen right away,” Vitello said. “There was early frustration right away, and a multitude of other things, but those days are gone. All we’ve got is the second half in front of us. As long as we improve every day -- it may not be good enough for everybody, but it would be good enough in my mind, especially if we're getting guys to get better.”

The Giants were two games under .500 when they decided to go into sell mode at last year’s Trade Deadline, so a similar fate feels all but inevitable now that they have the third-worst record in the NL.

San Francisco already dealt two-time Gold Glove winner Patrick Bailey to the Guardians in May, and it seems like a no-brainer that impending free agents like Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray will be moved given where the club currently sits in the standings.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey made it clear that he won’t entertain offers for three-time All-Star Logan Webb, but several other core pieces could be made available, including Jung Hoo Lee, Chapman, Adames and Devers.

Here’s a look at a few factors that could shape the Giants’ approach to the second half:

Biggest need: Controllable pitching
The Giants have struggled to get consistent production out of their pitching staff this year, so they could benefit from targeting young arms that could bolster the club in 2026 and beyond. Finding reliable relievers is a more acute need right now, as the Giants didn’t invest heavily in their bullpen over the offseason and have had trouble holding down late-inning leads this year. Caleb Kilian was named the closer last month, but he’s logged a 9.72 ERA with two blown saves over his last 10 appearances, which could prompt the club to try out different ninth-inning options moving forward.

Biggest chip: Arraez
Arraez earned his fourth career All-Star nod after joining the Giants on a one-year, $12 million deal over the offseason, so he should be an attractive target for teams who are looking to upgrade at second base this summer. The three-time batting champion is known for his elite bat-to-ball skills, but he’s also taken a huge step forward defensively this year, which should make him even more valuable for contenders down the stretch.

Key player for second half: 1B Bryce Eldridge
Eldridge has made it clear that he wants to develop into the face of the franchise, so his progress will continue to be a key storyline coming out of the All-Star break. The 21-year-old slugger possesses game-changing power and has looked comfortable handling first base thus far, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him force his way into the conversation for National League Rookie of the Year if he puts up big numbers in the second half.

Determining Factor: Chapman’s health
Chapman is viewed as the most tradeable player among the Giants’ high-priced veterans, but he’s currently on the 10-day injured list with an abdominal strain and isn’t expected to be ready immediately after the All-Star break. Still, Chapman could draw interest from other clubs if he can get back to full strength in the coming weeks. The 33-year-old veteran would have to waive his no-trade clause for such a deal to go through, but the Giants already have another Gold Glove-caliber third baseman -- Casey Schmitt – who could slide in and replace him at the hot corner if needed.