The NL Central is off to a historic start ... can the Reds keep up?

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NEW YORK – The toughest division in baseball is … the National League Central?

It wasn't forecasted that way, but like the weather, baseball isn't perfectly predictable. After 50-plus games, every club has a winning record, and only 4 1/2 games separate the first-place Brewers (31-20) from the last-place Pirates (28-26). The Reds (28-25) sit a half-game above Pittsburgh.

“It’s pretty impressive what our division has done so far," Reds manager Terry Francona said on Monday. "But it doesn’t really mean anything more than that right now. It’s something maybe fun to talk about for you guys. Other than that, we’ve got a game today.”

According to Elias Sports Bureau, all teams in the NL Central had never had a winning record through at least 50 games played. The last time it happened in any division was three seasons ago in the American League East, when all five teams were above .500 on Sept. 14, 2023, with each club having played at least 146 games.

Is the pace all five teams have set sustainable, especially when NL Central clubs will begin playing each other more often as the season moves on?

“I hope it isn’t," Francona said. "If it’s not, I hope it’s not us [who loses].”

Under Francona since 2025, Cincinnati rarely looks too far ahead, nor does the club put too much emphasis on any one game or series.

“Not really, just because a win is the same value whether we’re playing American League, National League, in the division or out of the division," outfielder/infielder Spencer Steer said. "We’re just trying to win ballgames, so I don’t think there’s any extra weight on it.”

OK, but it really wouldn't hurt to step up the performance against division foes.

After a 7-2 win vs. the Mets on Monday, the Reds have a 26-15 record against all clubs outside the NL Central – which is third best in MLB – and average 4.8 runs per game with a 4.18 ERA and a +12 run differential.

It's not close to being that rosy versus their division rivals.

Cincinnati is 2-10 vs. the NL Central, which is the worst intradivisional record in MLB. The Reds have averaged only 3.25 runs per game with a 6.60 ERA and a -41 run differential.

With last weekend’s series outcome vs. the Cardinals still pending after Sunday’s postponement, the Reds are winless in two of their three completed series vs. division rivals.

“It’s always fun playing in the division because you play them a lot," starting pitcher Brady Singer said. "You know the hitters and the pitchers a little bit more, and it’s a little bit more cat-and-mouse and stuff like that.”

Amazingly, Cincinnati has yet to encounter the team that has given it the most trouble in recent history – the Brewers, who they don't see until June 22-24. The Reds have dropped 17 of 20 series vs. Milwaukee since 2021.

While overall record is the most important decider of success, getting into the playoffs could require tiebreaker assistance. The first one is head-to-head records, which helped the Reds overtake the Mets for the final playoff spot after Game 162 last year.

The second tiebreaker is a team's winning percentage within its division.

“You always want to do better in your division. It can obviously help you, but I don’t really look too much into it this early in the year," Singer said. "More towards the end, you start thinking about that stuff and the tiebreaker for the Wild Card and stuff like that.”

The Reds get a break from division foes for nine straight games with series vs. the Mets, Braves and Royals before a trip to St. Louis on June 5-7. It doesn't guarantee success, of course, especially with Atlanta holding the best record in the NL.

Baseball's regular season schedule now opens in late March, much earlier than it did in past generations. But traditional markers of performance are often checked at Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day.

“The biggest marker is the last day of the year," Francona noted.