Looking ahead to the Draft, Futures Game

In case you haven’t heard, the coming days will be the busiest stretch ever in the history of MLB Pipeline. We’ve got the Futures Game and the Draft on the same day, not to mention Days 2 and 3 of the Draft on Monday and Tuesday, preceded by the High School All-American Game and High School Home Run Derby on Friday and Saturday.

To paraphrase Crash Davis in “Bull Durham,” we’re dealing with a lot of stuff.

The questions that hit the proverbial inbox this week were more Draft-related than anything else, so that’ll get most of the attention, though I did throw in one question about a Futures Gamer for good measure.

Who would be your surprise non picks heading into Day 2 of the 2021 MLB Draft? -- @StevieDAles97

As we discussed in answering this question on this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, the names we’re thinking about as potential Day 2 picks aren’t necessarily a “surprise” in the sense where there’s consensus they’re considered sure-thing first-rounders (or top 36 picks in Day 1 caliber).

There’s a fairly large bucket of players who fit into this category. The first group you always consider to ‘slide’ out of Day 1 and into Day 2 are high school pitchers. It is not uncommon for prep pitchers who seem to be first-round caliber to end up going at the start of Day 2, or beyond, but get paid like they’re first-rounders. Teams often get risk averse when it’s go time and they pick a less volatile demographic. So that could mean flame thrower Chase Petty or lefty Anthony Solometo, both from New Jersey, could end up going in the second round or beyond (Remember Matt Allan, now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery with the Mets, seemed like a first-rounder and went in the third). If I were to pick more of a ‘surprise’ candidate, maybe it would be Andrew Painter, who is the second-best high school arm in the class and has been mentioned all over the first round.

The other bucket I would choose from would be high school hitters, mostly because there is depth in this category. So there are a number of prep bats who have been mentioned as potential first-rounders -- guys like Wes Kath in Arizona, Izaac Pacheco in Texas, even Will Taylor from South Carolina -- who could end up giving a team like the Pirates, picking first to kick off Day 2 on Monday, several intriguing options.

How bad does College World Series Game 3 hurt Kumar Rocker's Draft stock? Could we see him fall out of the top 10? -- @bryce_mcmahon

We’ve gotten several questions like this ever since Mississippi State beat Vanderbilt to win the title in that Game 3 and the answer has consistently been: Not at all. That doesn’t mean Rocker is a slam-dunk top 10 pick, but if he doesn’t go in that top 10, it won’t be because of his final start for Vandy.

There are two main reasons for this. The first is that one game would never alter a decision, unless a player showed terrible makeup that seemed irrefutable or got hurt. Neither is the case with Rocker. One rough, or even one good, outing isn’t going to make or break a prospect’s status one way or the other too much. Rocker probably has as much track record among scouts as just about anyone in this class, from being a very good high school prospect to having been seen regularly as a freshman in 2019 to this year. Granted, there have been some ups-and-downs this season, a factor in him not really figuring into the very top of the Draft conversations as much now, but he’s been very good to absolutely dominant in the best college conference in baseball for a while now.

The other reason is that Rocker was pitching on short rest for the second time in a row. College pitchers generally pitch once a week and that’s it. Rocker pitched on five, instead of six, days rest when he beat North Carolina State on June 25, then had just four days between starts before that loss to Mississippi State. Teams certainly will note that and would chalk his start up to that irregularity, at the end of a very long season, more than anything else. And, as always, Rocker showed just how much he loves to compete, always a plus.

Two northeast, Italian, HS LHPs -- Anthony Solometo and Frank Mozzicato. Who’s ranked higher and are they both 1st rounders? -- @pbmcb

The short answer is Solometo, the lefty from New Jersey, over Mozzicato, the southpaw from Connecticut. We have Solometo at No. 17 overall, ranked now as the second best high school arm overall in the class. Mozzicato comes in at No. 39, though there clearly has been an up arrow next to his name all spring. Both are intriguing, both are projectable. Solometo’s stuff is a bit better overall now, though Mozzicato does have a plus curve in his arsenal. I do think there’s a chance both land in the first round, with Solometo being mentioned as high as the late teens and Mozzicato sometimes being associated with teams at the end of the first. Of course, as mentioned above, it’s also possible that both end up being Day 2 draftees who get over-slot bonuses.

Is Jake Eder closing on being a top 100 prospect? -- @jmb9299

Eder was added to the National League roster for the All-Star Futures Game to replace injured Pirates right-hander Roansy Contreras, and for good reason. The 2020 fourth-rounder and Marlins No. 22 prospect out of Vanderbilt has been absolutely dominant for Double-A Pensacola (Marlins), leading his league in ERA (1.03), batting average against (.151) and WHIP (0.91), and he’s second in strikeouts and K/9 to fellow Futures Gamer Reid Detmers of the Angels.

Now, it’s a huge leap from No. 22 on a team list to the Top 100, even in a solid system like the Marlins, so it might not be time to talk about him in the Top 100 just yet. What he’s done this year clearly exceeds expectations, and he’ll definitely make a substantial leap up the Marlins’ Top 30 when we re-rank later this summer. After a career at Vandy that was a little up-and-down, we’d like to see a little more consistency from him for a bit longer, though he definitely has Top 100 caliber stuff.