Amid Mets' struggles, are teams pitching to Juan Soto differently? 

This time a year ago, much of the consternation over the then-first-place Mets surrounded Juan Soto’s season-opening slump -- and, in particular, the slugger’s failure to hit with runners in scoring position.

This year, among a swarm of other issues plaguing the last-place Mets, we may need to wonder how often Soto will even get the chance to do so.

If there was a defining moment of New York’s doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Rockies on Sunday, it happened in the eighth inning of Game 1. Francisco Alvarez and Bo Bichette teamed up for back-to-back one-out singles, bringing Soto to the plate as the potential go-ahead run. Colorado reliever Jaden Hill threw Soto five pitches; none were in the strike zone. Soto -- understandably eager to provide his club with a much-needed lift -- chased a 2-0 changeup, came up empty, and then eventually took his walk.

Luis Robert Jr. then popped out and Mark Vientos struck out, each seeing just four pitches.

No one has hit much this season for the Mets. Of the 11 players to take at least 40 plate appearances, Soto (141 wRC+) and Francisco Alvarez (117 wRC+) are the only two who rank better than league average by weighted runs created plus. When Soto missed two-and-a-half weeks with a calf injury, the Mets cratered, at one point losing 12 consecutive games. Even still, as Soto worked his way back, the Mets often stressed that one player would not fix the team’s slumping offense.

Of all the early trends to watch as the Mets' lineup continues to struggle, here’s one that stands out: Teams are pitching to Soto differently. He is seeing pitches in the strike zone just 44.7% of the time, which would be his lowest single-season zone rate since 2020. Of 302 hitters to see at least 200 pitches so far this season, Soto ranks T-249th in zone rate. Last year, by contrast, Soto saw a pitch in the strike zone 49.4% of the time, his single-season career high.

Part of this may have to do with the fact that pitchers simply aren’t throwing as many strikes this year: Entering play on Monday, the league-wide walk rate (9.6%) is up 1.2% from last year and on pace to be the highest since 2000.

At the very least, though, it’s notable that Soto is also being more aggressive than usual, albeit in a very small sample size. His swing rate (44.2%), swing rate on pitches in the strike zone (69.1%), and chase rate (24.2%) are all well above his career averages. It certainly feels like this is all connected.

“I’m going to keep trying my best to put everything that I can out there,” Soto said on Sunday. “I can’t tell you they’re pitching around me. I had a couple pitches today to do damage and I couldn’t come through. But at the end of the day, we’re trying our best. Definitely, they don’t want to give up an extra-base hit, so definitely they’re being a little careful not only with me, but they have other guys they’ve got to be careful in this lineup. It’s part of the game.”

This also warrants a discussion on lineup protection, though not in the way that you might think. A lot about being “protected” actually comes from the guys in front of you getting on base, which makes it more difficult for pitchers to pitch around the ensuing hitter. Think of lineup protection as in front, not behind.

This bears watching with Soto. The Mets are simply not getting on base much; their .288 team on-base percentage ranks last in the Majors. And their leadoff hitters are no exception, combining for a .278 OBP that ranks fourth lowest. Soto has hit in the No. 2 spot in the order in all 13 of his games this season, meaning his “protection” is partially derived from the leadoff spot.

Entering play on Tuesday, Soto has taken 25 of his 55 plate appearances with runners on base -- a 45% clip. That’s more or less in line with last year, when 46% of Soto’s plate appearances came with men on.

Moving forward, this may be an area where the Mets will miss Francisco Lindor. Last year, anchored primarily by Lindor, Mets leadoff hitters combined for a .347 OBP, the seventh best in the Majors. Soto, sure enough, took 326 plate appearances with runners on base. Only six players took more, including Pete Alonso, who led the Majors with 365 plate appearances with men on base, in no small part because he often hit right behind Soto. And, like Soto, Alonso saw pitches in the strike zone at the highest rate in his career.

With Lindor sidelined, the Mets will need those around Soto -- like the team’s current leadoff hitter, Bo Bichette -- to get on base at a consistent clip in order to truly protect Soto, forcing pitchers to come into the zone.