How execs view Tucker's free agency -- and which teams are in?

Last winter, an All-Star outfielder entering his final season before free agency was the centerpiece of a huge offseason trade, the second straight year such a deal was made.

Juan Soto's tenure with the Yankees wound up being a brief one, as he bolted the Bronx for free-agent riches across town with the Mets. Will Kyle Tucker follow his lead, finding a new baseball home after a quick one-year layover on the North Side of Chicago?

The Yankees reached the World Series during their one year with Soto before losing to the Dodgers. Chicago earned a National League Wild Card berth this season and beat the Padres in the first round, but the Cubs fell to the rival Brewers in a memorable five-game Division Series, ending their season earlier than they had hoped.

“That’s why it’s risky to give up assets for a player in his walk year – even a star player like Tucker,” one American League executive said. “If he leaves, was it worth it for the Cubs?”

Chicago traded third baseman Isaac Paredes, right fielder Cam Smith and right-hander Hayden Wesneski to Houston for Tucker, who had made three consecutive All-Star teams while establishing himself as one of the best all-around players in the game.

Tucker and the Cubs were humming along through June; Chicago was in first place in the NL Central, thanks in part to Tucker, who carried a .291/.395/.537 slash line with 17 home runs, 52 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in his first 83 games.

But Tucker suffered a hairline fracture in his right hand while sliding into second base in early June, an injury that was not initially diagnosed and seemed to worsen over the ensuing weeks. His numbers suffered as he continued to play through the issue; Tucker had a .232/.363/.345 slash line with four homers and 18 RBIs over 48 games in July and August.

A left calf strain cost him more than three weeks in September before he returned for the final series of the regular season. The Cubs, who once led the division by as many as 6 1/2 games, finished five games behind Milwaukee.

Tucker’s hard-hit rate was 40.4 percent this season, down from 44.9 in 2024 and lower than his career mark of 44.3. His numbers on fastballs also dipped in 2025, as he hit .270 and slugged .479 against heaters compared to .299/.635 in 2024 and .319/.555 in 2023. Still, his 143 OPS+ was the third highest of his career.

When all was said and done, Tucker finished his season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line, 22 home runs, 73 RBIs and 25 stolen bases in 136 games, posting a 4.5 bWAR. It marked his fifth straight season with a bWAR of 4.0 or higher, though it was his lowest of those seasons, including the 4.7 he posted in only 78 games in 2024.

Prior to the season, there was talk about Tucker landing a deal worth north of $400 million in the offseason, perhaps even eclipsing the $500 million mark. Following a year in which he battled some injuries and had some slight regression at the plate, is he still looking at that type of payday?

“It’s probably safe to say the early-season exuberance around his potential contract has cooled,” an NL executive said. “I think $400 million would be a very risky proposition.”

“He’s still the top free agent this year,” another NL executive said. “If he’s healthy, he’s one of the best players in the game and he’s in his prime. He’s going to get paid.”

Tucker turns 29 in January, so the idea of him signing a decade-long deal is hardly a stretch. Since 2018, seven free agents have signed contracts of at least 10 years; six of them landed those deals prior to their 30th birthday.

Tucker had been quite durable since his 2021 breakout, playing an average of 149 games per season from 2021-23. He missed three-plus months in 2024 after fouling a ball off his right shin and battled the hand injury this past season, but those were fluky injuries that shouldn’t cause concern for potential suitors moving forward.

Is a 10-year, $400 million deal in play for Tucker?

“I would guess more years and a lower AAV, but it should be in that type of ballpark,” an NL executive said. “He’s young, hits righties and lefties, and he’s a good defender. There’s an easy story to why he was a bit off in the second half, but nothing that should be a long-term concern.”

With numbers like those being floated, which teams could make a legitimate run at the four-time All-Star?

The Cubs figure to take a shot at retaining Tucker, who accounted for a $16.5 million salary in 2025. Chicago will have more than $20 million in other salaries coming off the books, but it remains to be seen whether the Cubs – who have never signed a player for even $200 million, let alone $400 million – will be willing to pay Tucker what his market figures to command.

Any conversation revolving around a free agent of this magnitude usually begins with the Dodgers, who rarely see a price tag they aren’t willing to consider. Michael Conforto didn’t pan out in left field for Los Angeles, leaving a corner-outfield vacancy for 2026 that could be filled by signing Tucker to play right field and shifting Teoscar Hernández over to left.

The same goes for the Yankees, who face the loss of Cody Bellinger and/or Trent Grisham to free agency. New York’s biggest focus this offseason figures to be its bullpen, but if Bellinger signs elsewhere, Tucker would be a natural – and more expensive – fit to replace him.

The Giants added a big salary to their payroll when they traded for Rafael Devers this season, but San Francisco ranked 17th in the Majors in runs scored and needs another impact bat to compete in the loaded NL West. Tucker – who could slot in as the Giants’ right fielder – would certainly qualify.

With Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto headed for free agency, the Phillies will have some money to spend – and a need to replace Schwarber’s production. As much as Schwarber has meant to that club, it’s easy to project him returning to Philly. But with a number of players in their 30s (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola), the Phillies could stand to get a little younger, making Tucker a good fit.

There will surely be a surprising club or two involved in the Tucker sweepstakes – what would an offseason be without a mystery team? – but it won’t be a shock if his market narrows quickly to the aforementioned teams.