Mets' bats prove Achilles' heel for Marlins arms

MIAMI -- Asked at the beginning of the weekend series whether a club like the Marlins could play spoiler down the stretch because of its starting pitching, Mets manager Buck Showalter called it a given.

“That's one of their really strong suits, and you know that you're going to have to usually pitch well here to have a chance,” Showalter had said. “Their future is going to be probably bright as long as they're able to continue to develop pitching like they do. …

“You're facing some of the best pitchers in baseball, so that's something that's very common to say and what everybody thinks. I can see why they might look at it that way [as an easy part of the schedule], but we certainly don't look at it that way. And it's kind of disrespectful to the team you're playing.”

And yet the season series between the Marlins and Mets has been a lopsided one, with the National League East leaders having won 12 of the 17 matchups. A big reason for that disparity is how much New York has feasted on Miami’s starting pitching.

The trend continued in Sunday afternoon’s 9-3 loss at loanDepot park, where Jesús Luzardo was chased with one out in the fourth after surrendering a season-high five earned runs. It marked his shortest start since returning from the injured list on Aug. 1.

“I just feel like they grind you out,” said Luzardo, who compiled a 2.91 ERA in his previous seven starts off the IL. “They really make you work. They kind of foul off all the pitches that you feel like are good pitches and [aren't] really chasing much and just kind of hitting the pitch that they want to see.”

Here’s a look at Miami’s starting pitching against the Mets compared to their other 18 opponents with at least two games played between the clubs:

ERA: 6.16 (18th)
WHIP: 1.52 (17th)
K/9: 6.7 (18th)
H/9: 11.3 (18th)
Quality starts: 3 (3 vs. ATL, 8 vs. PHI, 8 vs. WSH)

Right-hander Pablo López is a perfect example of the troubles. In four starts against the Mets this season, he has an 11.34 ERA. He has a 3.15 ERA in his 24 other starts. His career ERA is 6.53 in 10 starts.

“It's a good lineup,” López had said after allowing a season-high eight runs in 3 2/3 innings in Saturday’s loss. “They make you have different plans. Before the game, we try to create a plan, but they're showing you that they're adjusting to a plan. They make you move on to the next one. Sometimes if they catch you off-guard after you do Plan A, and then you start trying too many things, then you start falling behind, they start waiting for their pitch and then they capitalize on it. So it's a good lineup.

“They make you work, they work at-bats, they work the counts. If they pick up on something -- whether it's a pattern, whether I'm sticking to one side of the plate -- they make adjustments and they make sure that they recognize those things. Overall with each start, I think they know how I'm trying to approach them, and then it feels like they're a step ahead of me. If the schedule remains the same, I should get another start against the Mets, and [I’m] looking forward to that.”

It’s hard to find a weakness with the lineup. Entering Sunday, the Mets had a relatively balanced breakdown vs. all types of Marlins starters’ pitches:
Fastball: .314 average and .554 slugging
Breaking: .286 average and .468 slugging
Offspeed: .261 average and .377 slugging

The pitch usage was as follows:
Fastball: 51.4%
Breaking: 25.8%
Offspeed: 22.9%

Rookie right-hander Edward Cabrera, who held the Mets to three runs in 5 2/3 innings in Friday’s win, leaned heavily on his changeup, curveball and slider -- accounting for 65 percent of his offerings. It was a successful strategy in part because of his game-planning but also his execution and comfortability with the changeup and curve.

“Every time I go out there, I try to go out there with the mentality of competing and doing my best,” Cabrera said via interpreter Luis Dorante Jr. “Like you said, we can consider these three teams [Dodgers, Braves and Mets that I last faced] the best of the league, but that's not something that worries me. It's not something that's going to stop me. I always go out there and try to perform the best I can.”