Holmes likely out into August; here's how Mets could fill rotation

NEW YORK -- Even manager Carlos Mendoza acknowledged the gloom that settled over the Mets' clubhouse late Friday night, as players learned that Clay Holmes will miss much of the season due to a fractured right fibula. Although Mendoza declined to put a timetable on Holmes’ return, he said the bone will need 6-8 weeks to heal. Holmes will then require a full, Spring Training-style buildup, meaning his absence could easily linger into August.

“Last night was tough,” Mendoza said on Saturday. “We’ve been hit a lot this year with a lot of our superstars, with a lot of key players. But yesterday felt different.”

The difference is that Holmes, the Mets’ clear best pitcher over the first seven weeks of the season, feels so difficult to replace.

Yet the Mets have no choice but to replace him and are evaluating all options to do so -- “I think everything’s on the table right now,” as Mendoza put it. In the short term, the Mets called up reliever Joey Gerber to take Holmes’ roster spot. They will insert a new pitcher into their rotation either Tuesday or Wednesday, with the following options worthy of consideration:

Tobias Myers or Sean Manaea
Myers and Manaea are in similar situations in that they’ve spent most of the early season in the bullpen, relinquishing the endurance they built up during Grapefruit League play. Both are “in the conversation” to start next week in Washington, according to Mendoza, though neither is a perfect solution.

Myers has proven valuable as an opener and leverage reliever for the Mets, so converting him to the rotation would mean robbing the bullpen of one of its most effective arms. There are also no guarantees that Myers would be as effective in that role; his career ERA is nearly a full run higher as a starter (3.43) than as a reliever (2.44).

Then there’s the difficulty of stretching Myers out on the fly. The right-hander threw just 25 pitches in his last outing, which was his highest total in 13 days. It’s unlikely Myers could provide more than three innings or so in a start next week, which would have a serious impact on the bullpen during this current stretch of 16 games in 16 days. It could take weeks for Myers to stretch out fully as a starter.

All that said, Myers has a recent track record of success in the Majors, which is more than anyone else on this list can say. He has certainly pitched better than Manaea, who owns a 6.56 ERA and is also no longer stretched out. Mendoza did note that Manaea’s stuff was crisper in his most recent outing on May 10. Still, it would be a hard sell for the Mets to choose Manaea over Myers at this point.

Of note, injured starter Kodai Senga recently traveled to Florida to throw a live batting practice session on Sunday. He could be a factor for the Mets later in May or June, but not next week.

Jack Wenninger or Zach Thornton
Wenninger, the Mets’ fifth-ranked prospect, has drawn accolades for an active 16 2/3-inning scoreless streak at Triple-A Syracuse. The idea of a Wenninger callup began to feel real even before Holmes fractured his leg.

But Wenninger is not a perfect prospect. His rate of 4.9 walks per nine innings suggests he still must refine his control to succeed at the highest level. One rival scout who recently watched Wenninger throw said the right-hander has a tendency to pitch around stronger hitters and attack weaker ones, which -- like most things -- is harder to do in the Majors than at Triple-A.

Thornton, the Mets’ 13th-ranked prospect, doesn’t feature the same type of high-octane stuff as Wenninger. Still, multiple rival scouts said that right now, they would trust Thornton more than Wenninger to get outs in a Major League game, both because he’s a left-hander and a natural strike-thrower. Thornton’s walk rate is less than half Wenninger’s, and he has a 3.16 ERA this year in the upper Minors. But Thornton’s relative lack of stuff would give Major Leaguers a better chance to feast on his mistakes.

Jonah Tong
One of the most hyped pitching prospects in baseball as recently as last August, Tong came to the Majors at the end of that month, produced a 7.71 ERA in five starts and has remained on a downward spiral ever since. Though he still ranks as the Mets’ No. 2 prospect ahead of both Wenninger and Thornton, Tong owns a 5.68 ERA in nine starts at Syracuse this season. In his most recent outing, Tong blew up for seven runs and didn’t make it out of the second inning. While one Mets official said the team is considering every starter in the Triple-A rotation, Tong would be a tough sell at the moment.

An outside acquisition
The obvious name here is Eric Lauer, a veteran left-hander whom the Blue Jays designated for assignment this week. It probably wouldn’t cost much for the Mets to swing a trade for Lauer. But that’s because he posted a 6.69 ERA in eight outings for Toronto, with some of the worst advanced metrics in the game.

Lauer is just one year removed from producing a 3.18 ERA over 28 outings in a swingman role for the Blue Jays, so perhaps a chance of scenery could help him rediscover some of that mojo. But an acquisition of Lauer (or any other similar pitcher) wouldn’t carry as much upside as a callup of Wenninger or Tong.