MLB picks, predictions, odds for Sept. 21

A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

The MLB regular season is in the home stretch, but there are 15 games to choose from on Tuesday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays:

Rays ML (-115)

The Blue Jays are fighting for their playoff lives at the moment, but it’s hard to pass up the Rays as small favorites. They’ve been the fourth-most profitable team for bettors this season, and they’ve been excellent as small favorites. They’ve posted a 29-19 record when favored by -150 or less, resulting in a return on investment of +9.2%.

The Blue Jays will have an excellent young starter on the mound in Alek Manoah, but the Rays will counter with one of their own in Drew Rasmussen. He’s pitched to a 1.79 ERA and a 2.62 FIP over the second half of the season, and he’s been particularly effective when working as a starting pitcher. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his past six starts, including five scoreless innings vs. the Blue Jays in his last outing.

New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox:

Mets ML (+115)

The Mets have fallen out of playoff contention, but they’ll have arguably their best pitcher on the mound Tuesday vs. the Red Sox. Marcus Stroman has been extremely reliable all season, pitching to a 2.88 ERA and 3.27 FIP. He’s improved his FIP to 2.73 since the All-Star break, and he gives the Mets a chance every time he takes the mound. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past eight starts, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of them.

Overall, the Mets have gone 5-3 as underdogs with Stroman on the mound this season, resulting in a return on investment of +46.5%.

It remains to be seen if the Mets’ offense can generate any run support for him, but I’ll roll the dice at +115.

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins:

Nationals ML (+125)

This will be a battle of the Rogers on the mound, with Josh getting the start for the Nationals and Trevor getting the start for the Marlins. Trevor definitely has the edge in that battle. He’s been outstanding in his first full MLB season, while Josh owns a 4.49 FIP over 17 1/3 innings.

That said, Josh does have a few things going in his favor. For starters, the Marlins are not good against left-handed pitchers. They own the highest strikeout rate in the league in that split, and they rank just 27th in wRC+.

Conversely, the Nationals are very good in that split. They’ve had a terrible season, but they still rank second in the league in wRC+ vs. southpaws. That gives them some hope in this matchup.

The Marlins have also been taking it easy on Trevor recently. He’s gone 4 1/3 innings or fewer in four of his past five outings, and he’s gone five innings or fewer in each of his past seven. The Marlins have a solid bullpen, but their relievers are not as good as Rogers.

Ultimately, the Nationals feel underpriced in this spot.

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