13 eye-popping player projections for 2026

Before every season, we like to peruse the various player projections for stat lines that stand out.

Let's take a look at some of the most interesting ones for 2026, using the Steamer projections hosted at FanGraphs -- one of the chief baseball projection systems.

Obviously, players like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have elite-level projections. Judge, for example, is projected to lead the American League with 43 home runs, 103 RBIs and a 1.004 OPS. Ohtani is projected for an MLB-best 44 home runs and 120 runs scored as a hitter, a 3.46 ERA and 136 strikeouts as a pitcher and 7.9 Wins Above Replacement as a two-way superstar, easily the highest of any player. And that's just what a "typical" Judge or Ohtani season could look like, with star players often easily exceeding their baseline projections.

But we're looking more for interesting narratives here, not just who's projected for the best stat line.

Here are 13 player projections for the 2026 season that should catch your eye.

1) MVP-caliber Ronald Acuña Jr. is back
Acuña's projections: 31 HR, 24 SB, .891 OPS, 5.3 WAR

Acuña's first full season back from his ACL tear should be a big one. The 2023 NL MVP played like a superstar once he returned to the Braves in 2025, batting .290 with 21 home runs and a .935 OPS in his 95 games. Stretch that production over a full year in 2026, and Acuña will be right back in the MVP conversation again. Steamer likes Acuña from a power-speed perspective and projects him to be a top-10 position player in the Majors by Wins Above Replacement.

2) The Mariners have two top-five players in Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez
Raleigh's projections: 38 HR, 5.9 WAR
Rodríguez's projections: 30 HR, 23 SB, 5.3 WAR

Raleigh's historic 60-homer season as a catcher in 2025 translates to a top-five hitter projection in 2026 -- Steamer projects the Mariners star for the third-highest position player WAR behind only Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., and for the fourth-most home runs behind Ohtani, Judge and Kyle Schwarber.

While Raleigh provides elite slugging at one premium position in catcher, his teammate Rodríguez provides electric all-around play at another premium position in center field. J-Rod is projected for the fifth-highest WAR among position players thanks to his power, speed and defense in center, making Seattle the only team with two projected top-five players.

3) Munetaka Murakami's headed for a 30-homer season
Murakami's projections: 30 HR, 118 wRC+

Murakami was one of the most polarizing free agents of the offseason -- the former Tokyo Yakult Swallows superstar was the most feared slugger in Japan, but there are questions about his contact ability. But Steamer thinks Murakami will have a strong debut season for the White Sox, projecting him for a 30 homers and to be a well-above-average hitter overall. His 118 wRC+ means "18% better than league average," which is a better hitting projection than players like Elly De La Cruz (117), Mike Trout (116) and Christian Yelich (115), as well as his fellow NPB star Kazuma Okamoto (112), who's joining the Blue Jays this season.

4) Jacob deGrom's first 200-K season since he won the Cy Young?
deGrom's projections: 29 starts, 174 2/3 IP, 3.52 ERA, 202 K

The Steamer projections were high on deGrom going into last year, too, and he backed that up with his best and first fully healthy season in years. DeGrom made 30 starts with a 2.97 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 172 2/3 innings in 2025, and he's projected to put up a nearly identical season in 2026, even at age 38. If deGrom gets to the 200-strikeout mark like Steamer predicts, it would be his first 200-K season since his second Cy Young year for the Mets in 2019.

5) Nick Kurtz and Junior Caminero are top-10 hitters
Kurtz's projections: 31 HR, .886 OPS, 140 wRC+
Caminero's projections: 34 HR, .869 OPS, 137 wRC+

Kurtz and Caminero were two of the breakout young stars of 2025, with Kurtz belting 36 home runs with a 1.002 OPS for the A's to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and Caminero slugging 45 homers with 110 RBIs for the Rays. With Kurtz just entering his age-23 season in 2026, and Caminero even younger at 22, Steamer thinks the two phenoms are for real. Kurtz and Caminero are both projected to be top-10 overall hitters in the Majors this year by wRC+.

6) Another Tarik Skubal-Garrett Crochet duel for AL Cy Young
Skubal's projections: 32 starts, 199 2/3 IP, 14-9, 2.80 ERA, 243 K, 5.9 WAR
Crochet's projections: 32 starts, 193 IP, 14-9, 3.03 ERA, 238 K, 5.5 WAR

It's fun to see how similar Skubal and Crochet's projections are for the upcoming season. After the two dueled for the Cy Young Award in 2025 -- with Skubal coming out on top -- Steamer thinks the race will be on again between the two lefty aces in 2026. Can Skubal make it an incredible three consecutive Cy Young Awards? Or will Crochet dethrone him? Steamer projects Skubal to be the top dog in the AL (and the Majors) by a slight WAR margin, but Crochet is right behind.

7) Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso are a star duo in Baltimore
Henderson's projections: 27 HR, 21 SB, 88 RBIs, .846 OPS, 5.7 WAR
Alonso's projections: 35 HR, 101 RBIs, .831 OPS

There would be two big developments in Baltimore if the Steamer projections are on track: Henderson would bounce back to being a top-five player in the big leagues, and the Alonso signing would pay off exactly like the O's wanted.

Henderson's 5.7 WAR projection is the fourth-highest for a position player, behind only Judge, Witt and Raleigh, with Steamer expecting a great all-around offensive year and strong play at shortstop. Alonso, meanwhile, is projected for 35 homers and over 100 RBIs -- the only other player with a 100-plus RBI projection is Judge. If Alonso is driving in Henderson all season, the Orioles offense could be a real powerhouse.

8) Believe in Spencer Strider and Shane McClanahan
Strider's projections: 28 starts, 161 IP, 3.83 ERA, 187 K, 10.5 K/9
McClanahan's projections: 24 starts, 142 1/3 IP, 3.57 ERA, 154 K, 9.7 K/9

Strider and McClanahan were two of the most dominant young pitchers in the Majors a few years ago, but both have been derailed by injuries since. Strider returned from elbow surgery in 2025 but had a rocky season (4.45 ERA), while McClanahan hasn't pitched in two years due to a combination of Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue in his left triceps. So there are a lot of questions for the Braves' and Rays' former aces entering 2026. But Steamer projects both pitchers for a strong season. As overpowering as Strider and McClanahan can be at their best, if they hit those numbers, they'd put a lot of those questions to rest.

9) Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are different but equal
Tucker's projections: 27 HR, 18 SB, 82 RBIs, 139 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
Bregman's projections: 23 HR, 77 RBIs, 121 wRC+, 3.8 WAR

Tucker was the marquee signing of the offseason, joining an already star-studded Dodgers team. Bregman was brought in by the Cubs to help replace Tucker, and he's a star hitter himself. So what do the projections say about the two former Astros teammates? That Tucker and Bregman will be essentially the same level of impact player for their new teams.

Despite being very different types of players, Tucker and Bregman are back to back in Steamer's WAR projections. Tucker's skill is pure hitting -- he's projected to be a top-10 bat in the Majors by his 139 wRC+. But Bregman is also a good bat, with a 121 wRC+ projection, and his solid defense at third base makes up the gap.

10) 200 K's for … Nick Pivetta?
Pivetta's projections: 31 starts, 183 2/3 IP, 202 K

There are 10 pitchers projected for 200-plus strikeouts in 2026. Nine are the type of overpowering aces you'd expect to see: Skubal, Crochet, Paul Skenes, Hunter Greene, Dylan Cease, Cole Ragans, Chris Sale, deGrom and Hunter Brown. But the 10th? That's Pivetta, who Steamer thinks will build on his career year for the Padres in 2025 by reaching the 200-K milestone for the first time in 10 MLB seasons in 2026.

11) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Alvarez have elite contact and power
Guerrero's projections: .299 BA, .532 SLG, .954 OPS, 32 HR, 153 wRC+
Alvarez's projections: .299 BA, .558 SLG, .917 OPS, 30 HR, 161 wRC+

The home run king favorites by Steamer's projections are Ohtani and Judge. The batting title favorites are Luis Arraez and Jacob Wilson. But Yordan and Vlad Jr. give you the best of both worlds.

Alvarez, who was limited to just 48 games in 2025 by hand and ankle injuries, should be one of the most fearsome hitters in the league once again in 2026. The Astros slugger is projected to be the third-best all-around hitter in the Majors by wRC+, trailing only Judge and Juan Soto. Guerrero, who was good for the Blue Jays during the 2025 regular season but beyond great in the playoffs, is projected to keep that scorching hot postseason run going in 2026 as the fifth-best hitter in the bigs.

12) Kyle Bradish is a top-25 pitcher
Bradish's projections: 28 starts, 158 IP, 3.71 ERA, 166 K, 3.1 WAR

Bradish was terrific over a very small sample in 2025 -- he had a 2.53 ERA and 47 K's in 32 innings in six starts in his return from Tommy John surgery. Is he really that good? Can he have another season like his 2023 breakout, when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting? Bradish hasn't pitched a full season since then, but the Steamer projections like him to repeat his success this season. Bradish's WAR projection is to be a top-25 pitcher in the Majors, which stands out considering the other names around him.

13) Mason Miller's strikeout numbers are ridiculous
Miller's projections: 66 games, 2.38 ERA, 105 K, 14.3 K/9, 39.8% K%

The Padres fireman might be the most sheerly overpowering pitcher in the big leagues today -- just look at Miller's record-setting 104.5 mph strikeout last postseason as example No. 1. And when it comes to the projections for the 2026 season, Miller is really in a league of his own.

Miller has the lowest projected ERA of any pitcher by a wide margin (Phillies closer Jhoan Duran is next-best at 2.79), and the highest strikeout rate stats by an equally wide margin. Miller is projected to strike out over 14 batters per nine innings, and nearly 40% of the batters he faces. That's well ahead of even MLB's other elite relievers like Aroldis Chapman (12.5 K/9, 33.7% strikeout rate) and Edwin Díaz (12.4 K/9, 33.8% strikeout rate).