If you're a team looking for a long-term star hitter in free agency, you're probably looking at Kyle Tucker, who's been the unquestioned No. 1 free agent on the market all winter as an elite bat who's just entering his age-29 season.
But if you're a team that's ready to win now, there's another player out there who could make just as big an all-around impact as Tucker in 2026, and that's Alex Bregman.
Bregman is entering his age-32 season, but the three-time All-Star third baseman has a very strong outlook for this season. The current Steamer projections for 2026 -- Steamer is one of the biggest projection systems for baseball -- see Bregman as having just as good a year as anyone in the free-agent class.
Bregman is tied with Tucker as the top projected free agent hitter for the 2026 season by Wins Above Replacement. And he's just ahead of Bo Bichette, Cody Bellinger and even the stars who've signed already like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso.
FA hitters with the best 2026 projections
According to Steamer
- 1-T. Alex Bregman: 3.7 WAR
- 1-T. Kyle Tucker: 3.7 WAR
- 3. Bo Bichette: 3.6 WAR
- 4. Kyle Schwarber: 2.8 WAR (signed with Phillies)
- 5-T. Cody Bellinger: 2.7 WAR
- 5-T. Pete Alonso: 2.7 WAR (signed with Orioles)
Now, projections are far from the be-all end-all -- they're conservative, and any of those star players could easily exceed them and put up the best season among their peers.
But it's still meaningful that Bregman is projected to be a top-25 player in the Majors in 2026, and as valuable as anyone in the free-agent class. Let's take a look at why Bregman's projections are as good as Tucker's or any other free agent's.
The case for Bregman as the top available free agent, at least for the upcoming season, boils down to two main points:
1) Bregman is very consistently a very good hitter
Tucker is clearly the most dangerous bat still on the market -- the projections agree on that. Steamer projects him to be 36% better than a league average hitter this season.
But Bregman's offensive projections are nothing to sneeze at, either. He's projected to be 20% better than average, which is reflective of the level he's consistently able to reach season after season.
Last season with the Red Sox, Bregman had a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 125 -- which is just a fancy way of saying he was 25% better than a league-average hitter. Over the last four seasons, he has a wRC+ of 126. Over his big league career, he has a wRC+ of 133. And his lowest wrC+ in any season is 114.
In other words, Bregman has been a virtual guarantee to finish as a well-above-average hitter every season. So the projections for 2026 don't see that changing now.
Tucker might have the higher-end upside, but Bregman is exceptionally reliable in his own right. He doesn't have bad years.
Bregman is actually even projected for right around the same home run total as Tucker in 2026, and for slightly more extra-base hits. Tucker is projected for 24 homers and 50 extra-base hits; Bregman is projected for 23 homers and 53 extra-base hits.
Again, that's representative of Bregman's typical power production -- he's averaged 23 homers and 55 extra-base hits a year over the past four seasons.
The impressive thing about Bregman is he has been able to maintain that production year after year even though he doesn't hit the ball as hard as a lot of bigger sluggers. But what Bregman does have is an approach designed for him to maximize his slugging:
- He has extremely good plate discipline, which lets him pick out the best pitches to hit
- He has terrific bat-to-ball skill, which lets him gets the most out of his swings
- He's great at pulling the ball in the air, which makes it easier for him to hit homers without top-tier raw bat speed or exit velocity
This is the skill set that lets Bregman reproduce his numbers every season.
The first step is not swinging at bad pitches. Bregman always ranks in the top tier of MLB hitters in chase rate.
The second step is putting the bat on the ball. Bregman also always ranks in the top tier of MLB hitters in swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate. Once he's picked out a good pitch to hit, he doesn't whiff.
And the third step is turning that contact into production. Since Statcast introduced bat tracking metrics in 2023, Bregman has ranked in the top 5% of MLB hitters each season in "squared-up rate" -- essentially, how often a hitter makes contact on the sweet spot of the bat, which lets him translate his bat speed into as much exit velocity as he can.
Bregman also always has a high rate of pulled air contact -- and when you pull the ball in the air, that's the easiest path to homers.
All this is still true of the present-day version of Bregman -- we're not even talking about the younger, peak Bregman who was an MVP candidate in 2018 and '19.
Just in the past four seasons, Bregman has 84 pulled home runs across the regular season and postseason (top 15 in the Majors), 171 pulled extra-base hits (top 10) and 325 pulled base hits (top 10). He remains one of the most effective pull-power hitters in the game.
Most pulled XBH since 2022
Regular season + postseason combined
- 1. José Ramírez: 228
- 2. Cal Raleigh: 187
- 3. Mookie Betts: 174
- 4. Kyle Schwarber: 179
- 5. Marcus Semien: 172
- 6. Alex Bregman: 171
- 7. Francisco Lindor: 168
- 8-T. Jose Altuve: 167
- 8-T. Eugenio Suárez: 167
- 10. Shohei Ohtani: 164
2) Bregman's defense makes a real difference
Bregman is a step below the likes of Tucker when it comes to his 2026 hitting projections. But where he closes the gap is his defensive projections.
Bregman is projected to be a positive value fielder at third base next season. Tucker is projected to be a negative in the outfield.
That's in line with their defensive production from the 2025 season, when Tucker ranked in the bottom 25% of MLB fielders with -2 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. Bregman, by contrast, ranked inside the top 20% of MLB fielders with +3 Outs Above Average.
And similar to his consistency at the plate, Bregman has been highly consistent with his glove in recent seasons.
Since 2022, he's been worth +21 Outs above Average at third base, and he's been an above-average defensive third baseman every season. (Tucker, on the other hand, has alternated between positive and negative defensive metrics over that same timespan.)
Bregman is a top-five third baseman by OAA over the last four years, and his reliability at the hot corner is important.
3B with most Outs Above Average since 2022
- 1. Ke'Bryan Hayes: +63
- 2. Maikel Garcia: +36
- 3. Ryan McMahon: +34
- 4. Nolan Arenado: +32
- 5-T. Alex Bregman: +21
- 5-T. Matt Chapman: +21
Any team with a need on the left side of the infield should be extra confident in pursuing Bregman. Not only is he a high-floor hitter, he's a high-floor defender at an important spot on the diamond.
When you take Bregman's strong hitting value and add on his fielding value, that closes the gap that Tucker's pure hitting skill creates.
Bregman is a well-rounded player, and that means a lot in today's game. He should boost a contender in a big way this season, and shouldn't be slept on among the marquee position players teams can add for 2026.