Scouts thought Murakami wouldn't handle MLB velo. He's proven them wrong

When Munetaka Murakami was coming to the Major Leagues, the scouting reports all cited one big concern: that he wouldn't be able to hit MLB velocity.

Well, half a season into his big league career, the exact opposite is true. Murakami is crushing high velocity. You could even argue that the White Sox rookie sensation has been the best hitter in the entire league against high velocity.

Here's that argument.

First off, what even counts as "high velo" these days? MLB pitchers throw really hard, all the time. (That was one of the big causes for concern with Murakami -- Japanese hitters don't see extreme velo nearly so often, and when he did see it, his low contact rates were a red flag.) The average Major League four-seam fastball in 2026 is close to 95 mph, the highest of any season in the pitch tracking era, which goes back to 2008.

So let's go two full mph higher than that, to the 97-plus mph range, to give us our baseline. Guess who's been the single most productive hitter in the entire Major Leagues against those high-velocity fastballs?

Highest OPS vs. 97+ mph pitches, 2026
Of 144 hitters with at least 30 PA decided vs. 97+ mph velo

1. Munetaka Murakami: 1.249
2. Yordan Alvarez: 1.142
3. Juan Soto: 1.103

That should be all you need to see. It's Murakami ahead of two of the best hitters in the entire world. Talk about answering the bell. He's turned his No. 1 red flag into the greenest of green flags.

Last night, Murakami boosted that OPS against the Yankees by ripping a 106.1 mph double off a 97.0 mph fastball from former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. But the real test is tonight.

Murakami is headed for a high-octane showdown against the 2026 American League Cy Young favorite, Cam Schlittler (7:40 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video, MLB Network and MLB.TV). Schlittler throws nothing but heat.

Schlittler has an overpowering trio of fastballs, a four-seamer, sinker and cutter, that account for over 90% of his total pitches. Over half the pitches he's thrown this season are 97 mph or faster, the third-highest frequency among starters behind only Jacob Misiorowski and Hunter Greene.

That makes Murakami vs. Schlittler a must-watch matchup.

In Murakami's 34 plate appearances ending on 97-plus mph fastballs, he's getting on base at a .441 clip. He's slugging .808, over 100 points higher than the next-closest hitter in that group of 144. Murakami is outslugging Alvarez, outslugging Soto, outslugging Junior Caminero and James Wood and Pete Alonso.

Highest SLG vs. 97+ mph pitches, 2026

1. Munetaka Murakami: .792
2. Daylen Lile: .676
3. Juan Soto: .667
4. Junior Caminero: .634
5. Yordan Alvarez: .622
6. James Wood: .606
7. (tie) Pete Alonso / CJ Abrams: .594

Murakami's ability to not just make contact against high-fastballs, but to do damage against them, and hit them out of the ballpark, has been one of the biggest drivers of his success as first-year big leaguer. Murakami has been challenged, and he's punished pitchers for that challenge.

Four of Murakami's 22 home runs this season have come against fastballs thrown 97 mph or faster. No hitter has more. Only two others have hit as many as Murakami: his fellow All-Stars Soto and Caminero.

We've seen this from the beginning with Murakami. In his 20th MLB game, he absolutely destroyed a 114.1 mph grand slam off a 98.2 mph fastball. The important thing is, he's kept doing it. Murakami's latest homer vs. high velo came just this weekend -- on his bobblehead day, of course -- when he went deep off a 97.2 mph fastball.

And lest you think Murakami is somehow "lucking" into those home runs against upper-echelon velocity, his underlying numbers are just as strong. Murakami's expected OPS vs. 97-plus mph pitches, based on his quality of contact against them, is 1.161, which is still tops in baseball among hitters who've seen as much heat as him, just like his actual OPS is.

Highest expected OPS vs. 97+ mph pitches, 2026
Of 144 hitters with at least 30 PA decided vs. 97+ mph velo

1. Munetaka Murakami: 1.161
2. Yordan Alvarez: 1.057
3. Max Muncy: 1.011
4. Juan Soto: 1.007
5. James Wood: .997

These home runs aren't just coming off meatballs either (as far as a fastball in the upper 90s can even be a "meatball"). Only one of Murakami's homers, the grand slam, was against a heater in the heart of the zone.

Two of them were against elevated fastballs at the top of the zone or higher, and one was a pitch on the inside edge that he had to be quick enough to turn on and drive over the right-field fence. Luckily, Murakami has the top-tier bat speed to handle high-90s fastballs in any location. His average swing speed of 75.2 mph ranks in the 86th percentile of MLB hitters this season, and on that inside-edge homer vs. a 97.5 mph fastball from Zebby Matthews, Murakami's bat speed reached an elite 80.8 mph.

Even when you consider the outcome of every single pitch -- not just the ones that decide the at-bat -- Murakami's value generated against 97-plus mph heaters is tied for the highest in baseball. He's created six runs for the White Sox against those high-velocity fastballs alone.

Highest batting run value vs. 97+ mph pitches, 2026

• Munetaka Murakami: +6 runs created
• Yordan Alvarez: +6 runs created
• Juan Soto: +5 runs created
• Nick Kurtz: +5 runs created
• Otto Lopez: +5 runs created
• Riley Greene: +5 runs created

You can get Murakami to swing and miss at a big heater (he has a 45% whiff rate vs. 97-plus mph velo). You can strike him out (he has a 32% strikeout rate, including a K vs. Cole last night). But pumping in fastballs is a big risk, because Murakami is also going to just hammer some of those fastballs out of the yard, even when they're approaching triple digits. And if you don't come into the strike zone, where he can punish you in any given at-bat, he's just going to take his base -- Murakami is drawing walks 24% of the time against that high heat.

We knew all along there would be a power-contact tradeoff with Murakami, but we didn't know he'd win that tradeoff so lopsidedly, and against the very pitches that were supposed to give him the most trouble. Attacking Murakami with straight cheddar is a double-edged sword … and one edge of the sword is clearly a lot sharper right now.