Nats have exceeded expectations -- and now a pivotal Deadline lies ahead

A number of teams in 2026 have underperformed expectations – the Mets, Red Sox and Tigers, for example – leading some to wonder whether those high-profile teams might wind up selling by the Trade Deadline.

Other clubs, however, are overperforming expectations by a wide margin. Although every team comes into the season with the hope of reaching the postseason, a number of young clubs in rebuilding phases – our word, not theirs – know that when the 162-game marathon is over, it’s more likely than not that they’ll be on the outside looking in.

The Nationals were considered by most to be one of those teams entering 2026, but Washington – which is in its first year under president of baseball operations Paul Toboni and manager Blake Butera – has proven to be far more competitive during the first two-plus months than anyone may have expected.

“I've never heard anyone with the Nationals organization mention the word ‘rebuild,’” Toboni said. “We just want to build to be better every day. That is true whether we are going into the year with Vegas having us pegged to win 60 games or 100.”

Washington entered play Thursday with a 31-32 record, and while the Nationals trail the first-place Braves by 11 games in the National League East, they sit only 2 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, giving D.C. fans dreams of a magical run for their up-and-coming club. The Nationals hadn’t been over .500 this late in a season since July 1, 2021.

A lot can happen between now and the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline, but a team that many predicted would be a seller this summer could find itself in a position to buy.

“We'll figure out the Deadline when we get there,” Toboni said. “Until then, we're just trying to win as many games as possible.”

Whether Toboni believes in the word “rebuild” or not, his team’s surprising performance this season is likely to change his approach this summer if the Nationals continue to stay close to the playoff pack.

“Teams will use their own proprietary methods to calculate their playoff odds, their World Series odds and so forth, then decide how aggressive that they want to be,” an American League executive said. “Just because it wasn't planned [doesn’t mean] they won't take it seriously. They will have to decide how much it makes sense to pull chips out of the future and push them into the season.”

There figured to be a lot of chatter about a potential trade of shortstop CJ Abrams, who is having the best season of his five-year career. Abrams has 12 home runs, 47 RBIs and a .903 OPS in 62 games, pacing a Nationals offense that leads the Majors in runs scored.

“CJ is having an amazing year; we're here to continue to support him and continue to challenge him to be the best version of himself,” Toboni said. “What really excites all of us here is that we think his ceiling is so high, and he's just starting to get a real taste of that.”

Abrams is arbitration-eligible for two more seasons after 2026, putting him closer to free agency than Washington’s other core players – hence, making him a logical trade candidate if the Nationals were to sell. This offseason, the Nationals traded MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers with two years of control remaining and received a haul of prospects in return, leading many to speculate that Abrams could be the next one out the door if the Nats were out of the race this summer.

Regardless of their record come July – or any potential extension discussions, if there are any – the Nationals will have options regarding Abrams, though his strong season has his trade value at an all-time high considering his club control.

Given the Nationals’ place in the standings, however, trading Abrams would feel like a bad message to send to both his teammates and the fan base if the team is in contention.

“I think internally, you have to understand what the makeup of the team is,” another AL executive said. “Just because it’s not on the timeline you thought, you can’t ignore it. Maybe you don’t go all-in, but you have to do something.”

Back in March, Toboni expressed confidence that his club had “a lot of the pieces that will be in place for the next Nationals run – whenever that might be.” The focus this season was on building a culture within the organization, or, as Toboni put it, “setting the tone of how we’re going to operate.”

More than 60 games later, that culture continues to be a work in progress, though the early returns have been extremely positive.

“The group – players and staff – has had high expectations from the outset,” Toboni said. “We’re so lucky in that our player and staff groups are a bunch of awesome human beings. Not one person who is putting themselves above the team. And that’s really, really fun to be around.

“The expectations we place on ourselves are more around the culture we're building, the effort we put into our individual jobs, how we treat our teammates – that goes for players and staff. We don't want to get too high or too low. We want to keep working our tails off, keep supporting each other, to hopefully put us in a position where we can make a run.”