1 lineup & 1 pitching staff that could surprise this season

Shortly before the season began, MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince ranked his top 10 lineups and pitching staffs.

The Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners were listed as top-three lineups, while Los Angeles, Seattle and Philadelphia were the top pitching staffs. Looking beyond those top 10 lists, are there any lineups and pitching staffs that could outperform their expectations?

Here is one lineup and one pitching staff that could find itself as one of the best in baseball by the end of the year. For the sake of this exercise, we're not looking at what any of these lineups or pitching staffs did in the first few days of the season.

Royals lineup

If you tuned into this year’s World Baseball Classic, it was impossible not to notice the star power from Royals hitters.

Maikel Garcia burst onto the world stage by helping lead Venezuela to their first WBC title and winning MVP honors. Vinnie Pasquantino homered three times in a pool play game against Mexico and was a key cog in Italy’s surprising run to the semifinals (as well as the club’s official barista). Bobby Witt Jr.'s superstardom was on display with highlight-reel defensive plays, and Jac Caglianone mashed with a 1.071 OPS in five games for Italy.

That’s why it might be surprising to know that the Royals finished as a bottom-five team in 2025 in runs and home runs. Kansas City, however, has a chance to flip that script in a major way this season and not simply because Kauffman Stadium’s new dimensions will be more hitter-friendly.

Reason No. 1: BWJ might go supernova again

If there’s any player in the American League who can dethrone Aaron Judge for MVP, it’s Witt. Based on a poll of 57 MLB.com experts, we also believe that Witt will take home his first MVP award this season.

Witt tried his best to do so in 2024, when he had a .977 OPS, 32 home runs, 31 stolen bases and 10.5 WAR (per FanGraphs), while finishing second in MVP voting to Judge. Witt was not nearly as good last year, but an 8-win season is hardly a disappointment. Still only 25 years old, Witt has the profile to take home some serious hardware.

He’s a world-class defender at shortstop -- arguably the best all-around defensive player in baseball. He’s a force at the plate, blending elite pop with an above-average strikeout rate. And he is one of the fastest players in the entire sport. We’ve seen what it looks like when Witt puts it all together and this year will be another reminder of his excellence. With the new Kauffman Stadium dimensions, Witt could post an OPS north of .950 and/or join the 40-40 club.

Reason No. 2: Another gear for Maikel?

If his WBC performance was any indication, Garcia might have even more offensive growth in his profile.

In seven WBC games, Garcia had a .970 OPS, while running an elite 59.1 percent hard-hit rate, 93.7 mph exit velocity and 8.8 percent whiff rate. That this came after a monster breakout season in 2025 (5.6 WAR in 160 games) only lends hope to the idea that Garcia could take another step forward.

Garcia’s third-base defense has always been elite -- his 33 Outs Above average are a top-10 figure among infielders since 2023 -- but the offensive potential has started to bloom. Garcia makes a boatload of contact (92nd percentile whiff rate in 2025), has an excellent eye (91st percentile chase rate) and hits the ball hard (91.3 mph average exit velocity).

We saw Garcia hit fewer grounders and pull the ball in the air more last year, leading to a career-best 16 home runs and .449 SLG. This is a hitter with a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate and the confidence should be soaring even higher after his recent WBC performance. Garcia’s all-around skillset could make him one of baseball’s best players and a potential MVP candidate.

Reason No. 3: The young guys break out

Witt and Garcia are mid-20s stars but there are a pair of other potential All-Star talents in the 23-year-old Caglianone and 22-year-old Carter Jensen.

MLB.com’s Thomas Harrigan recently wrote about why Caglianone -- the No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 Draft -- might be primed for a breakout. As Harrigan detailed, Caglianone’s .532 OPS as a rookie last year wasn’t as bad as it looked and the lefty slugger has some of the most eye-popping power of any player.

Caglianone hit a double in Spring Training with an exit velocity of 120.2 mph, a figure very few hitters are capable of reaching. This is nothing new for Caglianone, who has routinely flashed this kind of elite contact quality since his collegiate days at Florida. Caglianone also makes more contact than you’d expect (22.4 percent strikeout rate last year) for someone with this power. With a .970 OPS in Spring Training and an excellent WBC performance, Caglianone could take a serious step forward.

Jensen, too, has the tools and prospect pedigree to be a potential Rookie of the Year candidate this season. MLB Pipeline’s No. 18 overall prospect, Jensen will likely be an everyday fixture in the Royals’ lineup as he splits catching duties with Salvador Perez and gets DH time. Jensen absolutely mashed in a 20-game MLB stint last season (.940 OPS and .447 expected wOBA). Jensen has the chance to deepen this Royals lineup and be a fixture for the foreseeable future.

Reason No. 4: The depth options are better

One of the reasons the Royals’ offense struggled so much in 2025 was due to lack of depth in the lineup. There were 17 Royals hitters who recorded at least 100 plate appearances -- 11 of them posted an OPS south of .700, tied for the second-most hitters of any club in the Majors.

That depth looks to be massively improved this year. Isaac Collins, who had a .779 OPS and finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year, was acquired in a trade with the Brewers. The club also signed veteran outfielders Lane Thomas and Starling Marte in free agency, giving Kansas City multiple outfield options with specific roles (Thomas mashes left-handed pitching and Marte is still producing at an above-average clip).

Couple those additions with potential growth from hitters like Caglianone and Jensen and you have the making of a deeper lineup with the star power to produce plenty of runs.

Other potential surprise lineups: Giants, Tigers, Rangers

Marlins pitching

The Marlins had a late-season surge in 2025 to finish with a surprising 79-83 record.

While it seems far-fetched for the Marlins to win the NL East -- or even grab a playoff spot -- there’s a good chance Miami’s pitchers end up being much better than expected. Marlins pitchers finished with the sixth-worst ERA (4.60) and WAR (9.7) last season and they’re projected to finish as a bottom-10 unit yet again.

However, the Marlins have a well-earned reputation for developing pitching and still have a collection of high-upside arms, even after trading starters like Edward Cabrera (to the Cubs) and Ryan Weathers (to the Yankees). This could be a top-10 unit if things break right.

Reason No. 1: Full season Eury breakout

Could this be the year Eury Pérez puts it all together?

We saw the young right-hander dominate in 19 starts as a rookie in 2023, posting a 3.15 ERA with 108 strikeouts in 91 1/3 innings. After Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2024 season, Pérez returned in ‘25 with a 4.25 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 95 1/3 innings. The Dominican righty turns 23 years old next month and has the ace upside to take a massive leap forward.

For starters, Pérez’s stuff is outlandish, especially coming from a 6-foot-8 frame. It’s a five-pitch mix headlined by an upper-90s four-seamer and a slider that generated a 41 percent whiff rate last season. He also produced a 61.1 percent whiff rate on a 90 mph changeup and a 42.9 percent swing-and-miss rate on his sweeper. By The Athletic’s Eno Sarris’s Stuff+ model, Pérez boasted a top-10 Stuff+ in 2025 and is in the same boat this season.

If everything clicks, Pérez has ace potential and could reshape the future outlook of the Marlins’ rotation.

Reason No. 2: A Sandy bounceback

Like Pérez, Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2023. On the whole, it was a disappointing return in 2025, when Alcantara posted a career-high 5.36 ERA in 174 2/3 innings. The underlying numbers suggested his ERA should’ve been closer to the mid-4’s, but it was still a far cry from his previous peak.

Why the optimism, then? Alcantara is only 30 years old and he’s another year removed from elbow surgery. He also really turned things around late in the season. After posting a 6.36 ERA and 5.15 expected ERA in 109 innings through the end of July, Alcantara had a 3.70 ERA and 3.79 xERA in his final 10 starts of the season. Alcantara threw six-plus innings nine times in those last 10 starts, flashing the quality and quantity that made him a previous ace.

Alcantara might not return to his 2022 Cy Young level (2.28 ERA in 228 2/3 innings), but even something closer to how he looked at season’s end makes him a bonafide No. 2 starter. If that happens, he could form an enviable 1-2 punch with Pérez.

Reason No. 3: More potential upside starters

It’s not just Pérez and Alcantara: the Marlins have a plethora of other starters who could produce at a higher level.

Max Meyer has the swing-and-miss stuff (67th percentile whiff rate last year) and prospect pedigree that’s frequently had him as a breakout candidate. There’s risk in counting too much on someone with a career 5.29 ERA in 25 starts, but this might be the year he’s given an extended leash to prove himself.

Chris Paddack and Janson Junk will round out the Marlins’ rotation to begin the year, but they might just be holding it down until others are ready. Braxton Garrett was optioned to Triple-A to begin the season, but he’s been effective when healthy -- the lefty missed all of last season due to elbow surgery but he had a 3.66 ERA and 3.1 WAR in 159 2/3 innings in 2023.

Thomas White (MLB Pipeline’s No. 17 overall prospect) has some of the best stuff of any prospect and has struck out 272 batters in 190 career MiLB innings. He reached Triple-A last season and despite his command issues, his stuff might be so good that he’s an effective starter anyways.

Robby Snelling (MLB Pipeline’s No. 39 prospect) has less upside than White but features a high floor to be a mid-rotation starter. Like White, Snelling also reached Triple-A last season and could be in the Majors in 2026.

Other potential surprise pitching staffs: Orioles, Astros, Rays