5 questions the Padres face this offseason

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The World Series begins tonight, and I don’t know about you, but I’m really looking forward to this matchup. Plenty of fun Diamondbacks-Rangers storylines. But more than anything, I’ve just enjoyed watching these two teams play. Hard not to appreciate the resolve of a couple teams that rolled into hostile road environments for Games 6 and 7 of an LCS -- and won both games.

Anyway, back to the matter at hand. The Padres once hoped it’d be them playing deep into October. Instead, they’re left searching for a manager ahead of what figures to be a busy offseason.

Let’s get right to it. If the Padres hope to realize their World Series ambitions next fall, here are five pivotal questions that must be answered.

1. Who’s managing?

It won’t be Bob Melvin, who officially departed for the Giants job on Wednesday. That move comes as something of a pivot, given that general manager A.J. Preller called Melvin “our manager” in his end-of-season presser. But for the Padres, it’s clearly not entirely unwelcome, or else they wouldn’t have approached Melvin with the Giants’ interview request.

In any case, the Padres now need to find a replacement for Melvin, and two internal candidates have already risen to the forefront: senior advisor Mike Shildt and bench coach/offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty. Most of the speculation is that one of those two will land the job. But what Preller said yesterday made me pause a bit:

“I can just tell in the first 24 hours, though, there's a lot of interest in this job. We've had some very interesting names and some people that are very accomplished that have expressed interest in this job. Really, it's a testament to our team, our roster, the talent that's here.”

Speaking of which …

2. What's next for Juan Soto?

There are three potential paths for the Padres and Soto, who is due a raise on his $23 million salary in his final year of arbitration.

The first path is the one the Padres must gauge before exploring the other two: A long-term extension. Soto is one of the best hitters in the sport. He turned 25 on Wednesday. In other words: He’s the type of player you build around.

Then again, Soto already turned down long-term overtures in Washington. Now that he's a year away from free agency, it looks likelier than ever that he’ll reach the open market. Which leaves the Padres with their other two options.

They could enter 2024 with Soto in a contract year. They expect to contend, and it’s never a bad thing to pencil a potential future Hall of Famer into the middle of your lineup.

Then again, the Padres gave up a massive haul to acquire Soto. If they wanted to recoup some value, they might look to trade him. Already reports have emerged that the Yankees checked in on Soto, though sources noted those discussions haven’t actually taken place between GMs.

Still, there’s clearly going to be interest. Preller didn't exactly shut down the possibility earlier this month.

"We’ve never been a group that says no to anything," Preller said. "I wouldn’t read into that. That’s just kind of the way we operate. But, again, I think the first path is going to be to go down the road of having a conversation with Juan and [agent] Scott Boras and kind of seeing where that’s at."

3. How to replace Snell and/or Hader?

The Padres’ core remains mostly intact, particularly on the offensive side. But it's hard to overstate what they'd be losing if Blake Snell and Josh Hader were to depart in free agency.

Both are expected to receive qualifying offers. Both will almost certainly decline those offers, at which point, the Padres will be bidding against 29 other teams for their services.

Snell and Hader have previously expressed their love of pitching in San Diego. That doesn't mean either would take a discount, and the market for both figures to be robust. Snell is coming off a likely NL Cy Young season in which he led the Majors with a 2.25 ERA. Hader is one of the best closers in the sport, and he notched a 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.

"You need those kinds of guys in the back end of your bullpen," Preller said of Hader.

Of Snell, he added: "There’s high interest from the organization in terms of having a pitcher like Blake in our rotation."

Neither will come cheap. But if they were to depart, they Padres would have holes to fill.

4. Where’s the pitching?

Snell and Hader aren’t the only looming departures from this staff. Seth Lugo has a player option he’ll almost certainly decline. Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez, meanwhile, have contracts with both team and player options, and their status for 2024 is uncertain.

As things stand, the only proven starting-pitching options due to return are Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove -- both of whom had their 2023 seasons cut short due to injury. That’s an awful lot of question marks.

Which, perhaps, makes the Padres more likely to bring Wacha and Martinez back. But even still, they’d be thin at the back of their rotation and the back end of their bullpen.

Here’s a question worth pondering as the Padres, with a suddenly revamped farm, look to fill those holes: Would they, again, deal from their resurgent farm system to find pitching? Or would they hesitate to do so, after similar trades left them devoid of depth in 2023?

5. Who's playing where?

When Xander Bogaerts signed last offseason, the Padres were adamant that he was their shortstop in 2023. They notably never addressed anything beyond that.

Bogaerts was solid defensively in his debut season. But Ha-Seong Kim remains one of the best defensive shortstops in the sport. Further, the status of Manny Machado’s surgically repaired elbow might play a part. If Machado opens the year on the IL or as a full-time DH, the Padres might need Kim at third rather than second or short. Meanwhile, Jake Cronenworth is far more valuable at second than first.

In the outfield, Trent Grisham is one of the sport’s best defenders. But he’s struggled offensively and would seem to be a trade or a non-tender candidate. Could that portend a Fernando Tatis Jr. move to center field?

Whatever decisions the Padres make regarding their defensive alignment, they should make them soon. It’ll undoubtedly impact their strategy in free agency.