A 9-step plan for the Padres' offseason
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This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Let's get right to it. I mapped out a nine-step plan for a successful Padres offseason:
1. Re-sign Suarez and Martinez
The Padres locked up Robert Suarez for the next five years, per sources. That deal could be finalized as early as Wednesday. Suarez stabilizes the back end of a San Diego bullpen that already features Josh Hader, Luis García and Tim Hill.
Now, Nick Martinez. He wants to start, and the Padres need starters. He’s also proven he can handle just about any role on staff. Considering Martinez's importance in 2022, he's worth bringing back for '23, and the two sides reached an agreement on a three-year contract Wednesday, per sources.
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2. Spend on another starter
The Padres have money to spend, but they don't have unlimited resources. So where should they allocate those resources? I'd spend on a starter. Beyond Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove, there's little depth. Meanwhile, the free-agent options are interesting. Someone like, say, Chris Bassitt makes sense, but he comes with a qualifying offer. Japan’s Kodai Senga is intriguing, but he'll draw interest from a couple dozen clubs.
Or ... well, just look at how the current rotation was built. Darvish, Snell and Musgrove all became Padres because they were growing too expensive for their previous teams. San Diego was willing to foot the bill, while shipping out a few prospects. The club might take the same tack this winter.
3. Spread the wealth at first base
If we're trying to be resourceful, the best place to do it might be at first base. The switch-hitting Josh Bell would be a hugely useful piece on the 2023 Padres. But he won't come cheap. It might be smarter to use that money on two first-base types -- one a righty, one lefty. The Padres' bench was a weakness down the stretch in '22. By signing two bat-first boppers, the Padres would solidify both their bench and their DH options. Perhaps a reunion with Brandon Drury (who is versatile and can play the outfield, even though he wasn't needed there in 2022) makes sense.
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4. Find a center-field partner for Grisham
Jurickson Profar's opt-out creates a small measure of flexibility. The Padres could search for an outfielder capable of playing center -- leaving open a potential Trent Grisham platoon. Ideally, however, that center fielder is good enough to start every day, perhaps taking Grisham's spot against lefties and starting in a corner against righties.
(José Azocar was serviceable last season, but he's better as a No. 5 outfielder than a No. 4.)
5. Shop for a catcher
"We'll go into it with [Austin] Nola and [Luis] Campusano on the roster, two guys that the staff has a lot of faith in," Padres general manager A.J. Preller said recently. "We like the situation."
OK, sure, if the Padres were to enter the 2023 campaign with Nola and Campusano as their primary options, that might work just fine. But it can't hurt to scour the market.
6. Fill out the pitching staff
To recap: We've brought back Suarez, Martinez and added another starting pitcher. The heavy lifting is done. But the Padres still need another couple of arms in the bullpen, with Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen having departed. They'd also be well served to find a cheap No. 6 starter somewhere. (Pitching depth, pitching depth, pitching depth.)
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7. Extend Darvish's contract
This has little to do with 2023, but if the Padres want to put themselves in the best position, locking up Yu Darvish for, say, two additional seasons would go a long way. By all accounts, Darvish thoroughly enjoyed his '22 season -- his teammates, his coaches, the city.
With Darvish and Snell set to depart after next season, this rotation could use some long-term assurances.
8. Engage with Soto
Speaking of important moves for the Padres' long-term stability ... Juan Soto still has two seasons under contract, and he turned down a reported 14-year, $440 million deal to stay in D.C. But San Diego didn't deal five young players with the idea that Soto would bolt after 2 1/2 seasons. The Padres would like to have him around for "many years to come."
This offseason will be crucial in the team's aim to lock up Soto long-term. An extension would be a victory. Laying the groundwork for an extension at a future date would be, too.
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9. Get Tatis healthy
Maybe the most important thing that can happen this winter. Fernando Tatis Jr. is coming off surgeries to his left shoulder and left wrist.
If that wrist is fully healed and strengthened ...
If that shoulder is fully repaired and not prone to further subluxations ...
If Tatis comes back with a vengeance after he's served the final 20 games of his suspension ... the Padres' lineup will be a force.
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