Skenes has a chance to join exclusive club in final start of season

Paul Skenes has a chance to end a special season on a perfect note.

Skenes, the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year, is the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award. But in his final start -- part of a marquee matchup with postseason implications -- he can accomplish something else, too.

The Pirates phenom is scheduled to take the ball against the playoff-hopeful Reds at 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Great American Ball Park. In one of the most electric pitching matchups of the season, Skenes and Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene will take the mound for the NL Central rivals.

For the Reds, who enter Wednesday one game behind the Mets for the third and final NL Wild Card spot, there’s a lot on the line. But Skenes, too, has something at stake. Besides trying to end his sophomore season strong and spoil Cincinnati’s postseason hopes, Pittsburgh’s ace has a special statistical milestone within reach.

Skenes can become the first qualified pitcher (min. 1 IP per team game) to finish a season with an ERA under 2.00 since Justin Verlander (1.75) in 2022. But with a 2.03 ERA heading into his final start, it will take an excellent outing from the right-hander to get to a mark considered elite for any starting pitcher.

Unless he can complete at least 12 innings and allow exactly two earned runs Wednesday (and we wouldn’t put it past him), Skenes must give up either one or zero earned runs in order to finish the year with a sub-2.00 ERA.

Skenes needs at least three innings without allowing an earned run to take his ERA under 2. If he allows one earned run, he’ll have to pitch at least 7 2/3 innings to reach the mark. (In his last two outings, Skenes went a combined 8 2/3 IP.) Two or more earned runs allowed, and Skenes will have to try again next year.

How rare is it?

The only qualified starter this season with a chance of reaching the impressive mark this year -- Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, by comparison, leads the AL with a 2.21 ERA -- Skenes has the chance to join a club seeing fewer and fewer members over the years.

In the past 10 full seasons (excluding 2020), only six qualifying pitchers have posted a sub-2 ERA:

2022: Justin Verlander, Astros (1.75 ERA)
2018: Jacob deGrom, Mets (1.70) and Blake Snell, Rays (1.89)
2015: Zack Greinke, Dodgers (1.66) and Jake Arrieta, Cubs (1.77)
2014: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (1.77)

Fifty-one AL/NL pitchers in all have accomplished the feat in the Live Ball Era (since 1920). None of them wore a Pirates uniform, though -- the last qualifying Bucs hurler with a sub-2.00 ERA was Babe Adams (1.98) in 1919. Pittsburgh is one of 10 clubs without a sub-2 pitcher in the Live Ball Era.

Beyond his years

If Skenes has a good enough outing to get his ERA under 2.00, his age (23) and relative inexperience in the Major Leagues would make the milestone even more impressive.

Skenes could become just the fourth qualifying AL/NL pitcher in the Live Ball Era with an ERA below 2.00 in their age-23 season or younger, a feat not accomplished since Dwight Gooden’s remarkable 1985 (24-4 record, 1.53 ERA at age 20). Vida Blue had a 1.82 ERA for the Athletics in 1971 at age 21, and Dean Chance posted a 1.65 ERA for the 1964 Angels in his age-23 campaign.

Although he didn’t qualify for the ERA title with just 133 innings pitched, Skenes actually had an ERA under 2 (1.96) in his standout 2024 debut. This year, he could join Gooden as the only Live Ball Era qualifiers with a sub-2 ERA in their first two Major League seasons. (The last Pirate to achieve that feat was Albert “Lefty” Leifield back in 1906.)

It will take a strong performance from Skenes on Wednesday to join that club, but with the way his career has gone so far, don’t be surprised if the Pirates phenom gets it done.