How history can help you win The Vault

It sounds too good to be true: Predict who will lead the 2020s in nine categories -- hits, home runs, wins, strikeouts, All-Star appearances, MVP Awards, Cy Young Awards, team wins and team World Series titles -- and you could win a cool million dollars. But a lot can change in a decade (the first iPad hadn't even been released this time 10 years ago) and anything can happen. How can you possibly see that far into the future?

Well, by looking into the past.

To paraphrase Semisonic, one decade's beginning comes from another decade's end, and a review of baseball in the 2010s might offer some clues as to who could lead the 2020s. Who might we have chosen for The Vault this time 10 years ago -- an all-world prospect, a young up-and-comer or an established star? How did it pan out? And what does it tell us about what might come next?

(We're going to skip over the two awards, since they correlate with the statistical categories and the All-Star appearances anyway.)

HOME RUNS

2010-19 leaderboard:

1) Nelson Cruz, 346
2) Edwin Encarnación, 335
3) Giancarlo Stanton, 308
4) Albert Pujols, 290
5) (tie) Mike Trout and José Bautista, 285
7) Jay Bruce, 269
8) Miguel Cabrera, 268
9) Chris Davis, 257
10) Justin Upton, 255

Rule of thumb: Beware of youth, and be sure they can hit

If, in March of 2010, you'd asked yourself who was most likely to lead the Majors in home runs over the next decade, you might have been tempted by someone on the precipice of The Show -- probably the generationally hyped, car-destroying, do-everything Jason Heyward, or maybe another consensus top-10 prospect like Stanton, Pedro Alvarez or Chris Carter.

That wouldn't have worked out very well. While all of those players possessed prodigious power -- let's pause to remind you that Alvarez once hit a ball clear out of PNC Park ...

... baseball history is littered with promising sluggers who just couldn't quite hit enough to bring all that power into Major League games. This shows up on the decade leaderboard: Four of the top six were at least 27, and Cruz, Encarnacion and Pujols were all pushing 30. Plenty of skills may fade with age, but if you can hit 30 or 40 homers over the course of a big league season, chances are you'll be able to hang onto that ability for a while.

(Also be wary of big boppers whose bodies might have trouble staying healthy.)

Good news for: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Pete Alonso

Bad news for: Joey Gallo, Jo Adell, Yordan Alvarez

HITS

2010-19 leaderboard:

1) Robinson Cano, 1,695
2) Nick Markakis, 1,651
3) Adam Jones, 1,647
4) Starlin Castro, 1,617
5) (tie) Elvis Andrus and Miguel Cabrera, 1,595
7) José Altuve, 1,568
8) Andrew McCutchen, 1,540
9) Joey Votto, 1,532
10) Albert Pujols, 1,485

Rule of thumb: Longevity, longevity, longevity

Some superstars show up here, but unlike the home run leaderboard, the top is full of surprises -- solid players, sure, but guys you probably wouldn't have guessed would rank near the top of any end-of-decade list.

The lesson? Compiling hits is in large part a product of staying on the field -- and staying on the field, especially over a full decade, is in large part a product of being a well-rounded player (and, of course, staying healthy). Home runs require a pretty specific skill set, but even above-average big leaguers rack up 150 or so hits a year by simply playing a full season. Jones, Castro and Andrus are all good athletes and solid defenders at the most important positions on the diamond. It's not so much about how high someone's ceiling is here, but how much you trust their floor.

(Another lesson? Be wary of unproven players: Of the top 10, only Pujols was older than 27 on Opening Day 2010, but plenty of seemingly can't-miss prospects -- from Dustin Ackley to Domonic Brown -- flamed out. The hit tool is probably the hardest one to predict, so some track record at the Major League level is important.

Good news for: Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Bryan Reynolds, Tim Anderson

Bad news for: José Altuve, Wander Franco, Austin Meadows

WINS and STRIKEOUTS

2010-19 leaderboard (wins):

1) Max Scherzer, 161
2) Justin Verlander, 160
3) Clayton Kershaw, 156
4) Zack Greinke, 155
5) Jon Lester, 148
6) David Price, 140
7) Rick Porcello, 135
8) Gio Gonzalez, 123
9) Madison Bumgarner, 119
10) Adam Wainwright, 116

2010-19 leaderboard (strikeouts):

1) Max Scherzer, 2,452
2) Justin Verlander, 2,260
3) Clayton Kershaw, 2,179
4) Chris Sale, 2,007
5) (tie) Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels, 1,872
7) Jon Lester, 1,868
8) David Price, 1,867
9) Madison Bumgarner, 1,784
10) Félix Hernández, 1,714

Rule of thumb: It's a young man's game ... just not too young

We'll lump these two categories together because the upshot is the same. These leaderboards may seem chock full of established Major League veterans, but 10 years ago it was a different story. Only two pitchers on either list were 27 or older at the start of the decade: Verlander and Wainwright. Seven were 25 or younger. It's dicey to bank on anyone -- even stars like, say, Cliff Lee or Johan Santana -- racking up major numbers into their mid-to-late 30s.

Of course, don't over correct in the other direction. If you'd used prospect lists to select your arms, you were going to be disappointed -- just ask Brian Matusz or Matt Moore or Jeremy Hellickson. Heck, even players who wound up having very solid Major League careers, like Wade Davis and Néftali Felíz, needed a circuitous route and a trip to the bullpen. (The Royals are probably fine with that, though.)

Good news for: Jack Flaherty, Chris Paddack, Walker Buehler

Bad news for: MacKenzie Gore, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg

ALL-STAR APPEARANCES

Rule of thumb: Avoid pitchers

Look, it's nothing personal -- we love a nasty Max Scherzer GIF as much as the next fan. Here, we'll prove it.

It's just reality: From 2010-19, 21 position players appeared in at least four All-Star Games. The number of pitchers who hit that number? Just 10: Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Price, Lester, Hernandez, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman.

Pitcher is just a really volatile position, between how hard it is to sustain excellent performance and how hard it is to stay healthy -- especially as players age. Make sure your guess is on the younger side, and make sure they play the field. (And being in a market known to get out the vote certainly helps.)

Good news for: Ronald Acuña Jr., Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres

Bad news for: Mike Trout, Walker Buehler, Gerrit Cole