Inbox: Do the Giants have a chance at top Draft prospect Cholowsky?
Though most of my attention is focused on the Draft these days, there's a lot else going on at MLB Pipeline. Most notably, we refreshed our Top 100 Prospects list after Konnor Griffin officially graduated to the Majors on Wednesday. Sam Dykstra has all the details here.
As for the Draft, Jonathan Mayo will have a new first-round projection next week and we'll have an expanded and updated Draft Top 200 the week after that. And three of our four Pipeline Inbox questions this week deal with the Draft as well ...
We need to expand Jason's title from "Supervising Editor, Breaking News" at MLB.com to also include "Asker, Good Inbox Questions." And I'm getting asked this one a lot.
Even before the Bailey trade, there were a lot of rumblings that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey would do whatever it takes to float Cholowsky, the UCLA shortstop and top-rated Draft prospect, down to his club's top pick at No. 4. I mentioned this in our first official 2026 mock draft last week. Then San Francisco turned Bailey into the No. 29 selection and lefty pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson.
That choice added $3,270,200 to the Giants' bonus pool, boosting their overall total to $17,350,600 -- the fourth-highest total in the Draft. But it still ranks behind the teams with the No. 1 (White Sox, $17,592,100) and No. 2 (Rays, $19,009,300) selections and only slightly ahead of the club at No. 3 (Twins, $16,929,600). The Pirates, who own the No. 5 pick, have the largest pool at a record $19,130,700.
Let's assume the White Sox decide they want Cholowsky at No. 1 and are willing to pay him $10 million, eclipsing the bonus record of $9.25 million set by Chase Burns and Charlie Condon in 2024. What would happen if the Giants decide they must have Cholowsky and let it be known that they'll go crazy and give him, say, $12 million or more?
I still think Chicago would take Cholowsky if he's their guy. Even if San Francisco or another team would pay him more, he wouldn't turn down life-changing money to play his senior season at UCLA and re-enter the 2027 Draft with a lot less leverage. The only way Cholowsky would get to No. 4 would be if three teams passed on him, and I don't see any way that would happen.
While Cholowsky is the top-rated prospect, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson is better at the same stage of their careers and most clubs believe Emerson comes with a higher ceiling. It's quite possible that the White Sox decide that they prefer Emerson and I believe it's 100 percent certain they'll take whomever they want at No. 1 regardless of what other clubs may be willing to pay that player.
Can you compare and contrast Jacob Lombard versus his brother George as Draft prospects? -- Brian S., San Francisco
Jacob Lombard, a shortstop from Gulliver Prep in Miami, is a dark-horse candidate at No. 1 overall to the White Sox and may be the favorite to go No. 4 to the Giants. His older brother George also played at Gulliver before the Yankees selected him 26th overall in 2023. He currently ranks No. 21 on the Top 100 Prospects list and has reached Triple-A at age 20.
George ranked No. 31 on our 2023 Draft Top 250, while Jacob sits at No. 7 on the current Top 150. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds but stronger than that, Jacob is a little more physical than his brother was at the same stage and features more raw power and speed. You could project George as a possible 20-20 guy, while Jacob has 30-30 upside.
George performed better than Jacob did on the showcase circuit, so scouts felt better about George's bat entering their senior seasons. Jacob has eased concerns about his hitting ability this spring, however. They both had the actions and tools to stick at shortstop.
King fascinates me. One of the youngest players in the 2024 Draft, he wasn't quite 18 when he signed for an over-slot $1,247,500 as a Blue Jays third-rounder out of Naples (Fla.) HS. He has been untouchable in 84 pro innings, logging a 2.04 ERA, .182 opponent average and 39 percent strikeout rate.
A solidly built left-hander at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, King operates with a 93-95 mph fastball with impressive carry from a low three-quarters arm slot and a low-80s curveball with quality depth. There's a 29-inch vertical difference between where those two pitches enter the strike zone and they have befuddled hitters at two Class A levels.
King is on our Top 100 radar but I want to see more before I'd include him. He barely uses a third pitch (an upper-80s changeup), his delivery and control lack consistency and he has worked five innings in an outing just three times in his career so far. He's definitely talented and I'd love to see him in the Futures Game in a couple of months.
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When the news came out two weeks ago that Dax Whitney needed elbow surgery, he was the strong favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 Draft. The Oregon State right-hander was leading NCAA Division I in strikeout minus walk rate (35 percent) while ranking second in strikeouts (104) and strikeout rate (42 percent).
Whitney's best pitch is his fastball, which averages 97 mph and touches 101 with tremendous carry. His mid-80s slider and upper-80s changeup are also very difficult to hit, as is his big-breaking upper-70s curveball. He pounds the strike zone and his delivery features good extension.
Outside of his elbow, there's nothing not to love with Whitney. He's still a strong contender in the No. 1 pick discussion for next year, but it's hard to call him "the presumptive choice" before he returns to the mound. He had UCL hybrid reconstruction surgery on Monday, which should allow him to return in time to pitch in games in advance of the 2027 Draft.