Pirates Insider: Assessing what happened — and what must change — with team’s starting pitchers

On the final day of the 2026 season, Pirates pitching coach Bill Murphy sat in the visitors' dugout at Comerica Park alone, soaking in the scene and appreciating the grind one final time before everyone dispersed for the offseason.

There was a lot to contemplate.

Hired last offseason to take the Pirates pitching staff to another level, that didn’t happen during Murphy’s first season. Pittsburgh starters saw their ERA jump from 3.71 (tied for sixth) in 2025 to 4.23 (tied for 15th) this past year.

However, Murphy saw enough that he’s plenty encouraged for 2027 and beyond.

“I enjoyed being around the players, the front office and coaching staff," Murphy said. “It was fun to see people grow and develop. I think we made some good strides, but it’s ultimately not where we want to be. We need to continue to push and get better this offseason.”

In the first of three parts, we’ll break down the Pirates starting pitchers, the group where Murphy saw some progress … but also one that didn't function as the elite separator many had hoped.

Five takeaways

1. The most encouraging story was easily Braxton Ashcraft, who went 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA in 28 starts. He walked just 35 and struck out 173 over 165 1/3 innings, a jump of 47 1/3 innings over 2026.

Despite missing his last four starts due to right arm discomfort, there was no concern over anything structural. Good thing, too. Ashcraft blossomed into a front-line starter and bonafide All-Star.

2. The least encouraging story was Mitch Keller, who went 6-8 with a 5.29 ERA in 22 starts. He walked 42 and struck out 89 over 115 2/3 innings before suffering a season-ending injury (teres major muscle strain) in his right shoulder.

Keller will be the highest-paid player on the roster next season at $18.4 million. Given the 2026 performance and the size of his contract, it would appear the Pirates’ options are limited.

They need Keller to get healthy and rediscover his form from 2022-25, when he made 124 of 128 starts, was worth 10.1 fWAR and had a 4.15 ERA.

3. Skenes’ velocity was down. His control waned at times, too. But there was a lot of freaking out because he wasn’t Cy Young-level elite like he was his first two seasons.

One example: Skenes was still worth 4.2 fWAR, 12th-most among qualified pitchers. He also had the third-largest difference (in a bad way) between his expected ERA and actual ERA.

There’s certainly stuff to fix. But once subpar season doesn’t mean Skenes is washed. Promise.

“Paul has a lot of elite skills,” Murphy said. “Maybe the most elite skill he has is his ability to learn and self-reflect. During the offseason, Paul will do that, and he will be better off for what he experienced this season.”

4. Jared Jones was named the NL Pitcher of the Month for September, and he absolutely deserved it: 3-0, 0.93 ERA, 29 innings, four walks and 40 strikeouts. He was elite. But it extends beyond September.

In fact, Jones was worth 2.0 fWAR in the second half, which was tied for the 10th-best total among qualified pitchers in MLB.

He also evolved as a pitcher by throwing his curveball and changeup more. Jones solidified his place in this rotation for 2027.

5. The numbers behind Bubba Chandler’s season probably won’t jump off the page: 8-10, 4.62 ERA, 154 innings, 80 walks and 140 strikeouts. But there’s some important context here.

Chandler dropped his walk rate from 5.25 per nine innings to 3.77 in the second half. He also had a 3.63 second-half ERA prior to his frustrating final start this past Friday.

“It’s very difficult to come up at the Major League level and be good your first year from a consistency standpoint,” Murphy said. “You look at [Cam] Schlittler with the Yankees. Very solid. But this year, incredible. [Milwaukee’s Jacob] Misiorowski, as well. I think Bubba and Braxton are in that talent class.

“Just learning how to get better, how to last over a Major League season, how to use your pitches, what pitches to throw in certain situations. They’re only going to get better from that. They have to learn from that.”

Four numbers

13: Run value of Ashcraft’s curveball, per Baseball Savant. Best pitch on the staff.

11.34: Jones’ strikeouts per nine in the second half, fifth-highest in MLB during that time.

14.6: fWAR accumulated by Pirates starters, which surprisingly ranks sixth.

0.54: Increase in Skenes’ expected (3.28) to actual ERA (3.82), an indication of some poor luck. Only Freddy Peralta (+0.59) and Jacob deGrom (0.73) fared worse.

Three questions

1. What does the offseason do for Skenes? The World Baseball Classic had an effect, no doubt. He’s not broken; he simply needs rest. How much does that help?

2. How do the Pirates add support around Bill Murphy? Director of pitching development Jeremy Bleich left last winter, and the void was never filled. They also need to replace Josh Hopper, who was a key development voice on the Minor League side.

3. What becomes of Wilber Dotel? Murphy cited him as one of the important positives from this season. But is he a starter or a reliever?

Two predictions

1. The Pirates add a left-handed starter this offseason. Forced to rely on bullpen games twice a week down the stretch, they saw the need for additional pitching depth. This group has done a great job with soft-tossing lefties, and the dimensions of PNC Park certainly don’t hurt.

2. Seth Hernandez makes his MLB debut in 2027. OK, not necessarily a hot take. But he will need to conquer Double-A and Triple-A next season to do it. He’s more than talented enough to do it.

One quote

“I think my best baseball is ahead of me and our best baseball is ahead of us. Got a long offseason and have the chance to sit down and look at all the stuff. It’s real easy to let emotions bleed into some stuff during the season. It will be good to sit back and kinda look at the big picture rather than the day-to-day, short-term view.” — Skenes

Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.