3 reasons the Wild Card Series favors Cleveland

This story was excerpted from Mandy Bell's Guardians Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Guardians and Rays almost make too much sense as competitors. It’s two teams that rely on contact and quality pitching rather than the long ball and just so happen to be built on small budgets.

There are arguments for why this series could play in Cleveland’s favor. There are reasons why it could favor the Rays.

Three up

1. Will Brennan
Could Will Brennan turn into a secret weapon for the Guardians in this series? Well, maybe it’s less of a secret when we’ve already seen the level of success he’s had in his short two weeks in the big leagues. It’s inevitable that every rookie will run into struggles -- but this timing might still be catching Brennan during this hot stretch.

And with the Rays sending right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the mound on Saturday, Brennan may evolve as one of the more successful hitters against tough righties. Against righties in his 11 games in the Majors, Brennan has hit .389 as opposed to .167 against lefties -- results that have forced his way onto the playoff roster and likely the lineup any time a righty is on the rubber.

2. The pitching staff
Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie both finished the regular season with sub-3.00 ERAs, and while Cal Quantrill crept slightly above that mark (3.38), he may have been the most consistent arm on the staff. With these three set to make starts over the weekend, plus a bullpen that’s owned the third-best ERA in the American League this season (trailing just the Yankees and Astros) and the Major League leader in saves in Emmanuel Clase at the back end of the ‘pen, this staff certainly will make it hard for opponents to get many runs on the board.

3. A recent visit
The team had a chance to preview what a series could be like against the Rays last week before knowing they'd be going head to head, as Tampa Bay visited Progressive Field for a three-game set. At the time, Cleveland had already clinched a postseason berth and the Rays were still fighting for their spot. It’s not completely fair to make a prediction of what a Wild Card Series could look like based on that series because the lineups would’ve been a little different from usual, but the Guardians were still able to take two of three contests.

One thing that will likely be similar to that series is that each game was a one-run contest. It wouldn’t be surprising to see well-pitched, low-scoring matchups, and the Guardians could have a slight advantage there. Cleveland has gone 28-17 in one-run games, with most of those losses coming on the road. At home, the Guardians are 15-5 in one-run games.

Three down

1. Speaking of those pitching matchups ...
Guardians manager Terry Francona said it best on Wednesday: “Somebody like Glasnow or [Shane] McClanahan, they can make a pretty good team look not so good.” Glasnow has only made two starts this year, but he looked sharp in each. McClanahan was an All-Star this summer and pitched to a 2.54 ERA on the season with 194 strikeouts in 166 1/3 innings. The offense will especially be tested in the first two games of the Wild Card Series.

2. The bottom of the order
While Myles Straw has started to be more productive in the last spot in the order, he’s struggled to produce consistently for the Guardians all season. And with Austin Hedges or Luke Maile -- who, combined, have floated around the Mendoza Line -- usually filling the eighth spot, the bottom of the order can be a problem when it comes to needing the timely hit. And when facing even tougher pitching, those two spots will certainly have their work cut out for them.

3. Lack of experience
This is something the Guardians are trying to turn into a positive. It’s what they’ve done all season long. Instead of getting intimidated by obstacles or big moments, so many of them don’t even know any better than to just approach these situations like any other occasion. It’s led to 92 wins and 39 comeback victories this year. But the concern is whether this lack of experience will be shown more in the postseason, which is a completely different atmosphere.

“Everybody always talks about the Rays being so young, but they're more experienced than we are,” Francona said. “They've been in the playoffs four years in a row. I'm sure they'll try to use that experience. … Everything we do is a first. Doesn't mean we can't do it, but it's the first time we've done it. But our guys, we're excited to play. You know you're going to play somebody good. So, go play and see what happens.”