Despite knowing that you can't predict baseball, everyone loves to prognosticate about the year ahead in MLB, from Opening Day to the playoffs and all the way through award season. It's fun and harmless. You may be exactly right about something six months in advance, which is cool.
And if you're wrong, so what? It's not as if anyone will remember in December what you said in March about games in October.
Well, actually, about that last part...
As we say so long to 2025, we have decided to say hello once again to our three staff predictions stories from nine months ago:
- Who will be the AL, NL stat leaders?
- Who will be the division winners -- and World Series champion?
- Who will be the Baseball Writers' Association of America award winners?
Fifty-nine MLB.com voters made their picks then, and knowing what we know now, let's take a look at what they got right. But in an effort of transparency, let's also spotlight one pick in each story where our voters were almost prophetic, one pick that was not quite as close to being correct but was still not a bad guess, and one pick where, yeah, it was a total whiff.
Nailed it: Tarik Skubal, AL ERA leader; Paul Skenes, NL ERA leader
We had not seen a pitcher win back-to-back ERA titles in the American League since Pedro Martínez in 2002-03. We also had not seen a National League pitcher win an ERA title in his age-23 season or younger since Clayton Kershaw in 2011. But our voters put their faith in Skubal and Skenes, and they came through. The former posted a 2.21 ERA over 195 1/3 innings while the latter had a minuscule 1.97 ERA in 187 2/3 frames. Skenes became just the fourth pitcher in the Live Ball Era (since 1920) to record a sub-2.00 ERA during his age-23 season or younger and the first since 20-year-old Dwight Gooden recorded a 1.53 mark 40 years ago.
Just missed: Kyle Schwarber, NL HR runner-up
We didn't give Schwarber quite enough love. While he got a good amount of support from our voters, Shohei Ohtani was ultimately picked to pace the NL in homers for a second straight year. But the Phillies slugger did him one better, bashing 56 long balls to Ohtani's 55. It was the most by a Phillies player since Ryan Howard set the franchise record in 2006 with 58 home runs. Schwarber took home the homer crown thanks to 31 dingers in his final 77 games. That included his unforgettable four-homer night on Aug. 28 against the Braves.
It was worth a shot: Bobby Witt Jr., AL stolen base leader
After stealing 49 bases -- the second most in the AL -- in 2023, Witt's total dropped to 31 bases in 2024. That tied for eighth in the junior circuit. But his 43 attempts were the third most, and with Witt's top-of-the-scale speed, our voters figured he would stay aggressive on the basepaths in '25. That bore out as Witt saw his number of stolen bases (38) and attempts (47) rise. But it was only good enough for fourth place on the SB leaderboard, trailing José Caballero (49), José Ramírez (44) and Chandler Simpson (44).
A whiff: Luis Arraez, NL batting average leader
Picking Arraez to win a batting title felt like the free space on a bingo card. He had done it in three consecutive seasons -- and with three different teams -- so of course, he was the leading choice in our poll. Alas, Arraez's .292 average was the lowest of his seven-year career. And his .287 expected batting average matched a career low. He finished fourth in the NL in batting average as Trea Turner took the title with a .304 mark. Arraez's last full day with a .300 average this past season was May 22.
Nailed it: Dodgers, World Series champions; Dodgers, NL champions; Dodgers, NL West champions; Yankees, AL Wild Card
Our voters had a tough time foreseeing most of the division and Wild Card winners, but they were rewarded for trusting the Dodgers to continue their NL West supremacy and reign as MLB's first repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. Los Angeles recorded its fewest wins over a full season since 2018 (93) and had to battle into extra innings of Game 7 versus the Blue Jays in a Fall Classic for the ages. But they got the job done.
Of the other 12 picks made in this poll, the only one our voters got exactly right was the Yankees capturing a Wild Card. That put them in the postseason for the 26th time in 31 seasons.
Just missed: Tigers, AL Central champions
The Tigers were absolutely rolling during the summer toward their first division title in 11 years. Then they took a detour onto the wrong side of history. Leading the Guardians by 15 1/2 games in the AL Central on July 9 and by 11 games with just 21 games remaining, the Tigers limped to the finish line and, in the process, squandered the division in historic fashion. They ended the regular season one game behind Cleveland but would earn their revenge just a few days later, defeating the Guardians in their AL Wild Card Series.
It was worth a shot: Cubs, NL Central champions
After the Cubs compiled 83 wins for the second straight year and finished 10 games behind the division-winning Brewers in 2024, the vibes were high on Chicago's North Side entering 2025. They made a series of additions to rebuild their bullpen and pulled off one of the biggest moves of the winter when they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros. Plus, although the Brewers had been NL Central champs three times in four years, surely the departures of shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams, along with the uncertainty throughout their starting rotation, would be too much to overcome, right? Right?!
The Cubs were in first place from early April through the All-Star break. But around that time, Milwaukee started moving up the standings like Secretariat in The Belmont Stakes. The Brew Crew became an unstoppable force, ripping off multiple double-digit win streaks during the season's second half. The Cubs racked up 92 victories and earned a Wild Card spot. But no one in MLB equaled Milwaukee's 97 wins, a franchise record.
A whiff: Braves, NL East champions
Atlanta dug itself into a hole at the season's outset and could never climb out. NL East champions six times in the previous seven years, the Braves lost their first seven games in 2025. By April 2, they were five games behind in the division -- and they wouldn't come any closer to first place over the next six months. An avalanche of injuries didn't help; the Braves' entire Opening Day rotation was on the IL by late July. Key members of their talent-rich lineup -- Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna -- produced underwhelming numbers, too. It was just a lost season for a club that will have new manager Walt Weiss calling the shots in 2026.
Nailed it: Tarik Skubal, AL Cy Young; Paul Skenes, NL Cy Young; Shohei Ohtani, NL MVP
Skubal and Skenes linked themselves once again to Pedro and Doc, respectively, with their Cy Young wins this year. Before Skubal, Martínez (1999-2000) was the last AL hurler to earn the award in back-to-back seasons. And Skenes joined Gooden as the only pitchers to be feted as Rookie of the Year and with a Cy Young within the first two seasons of their career.
Ohtani received more than twice as many votes as any other player in this poll for NL MVP. It may have been the biggest no-brainer pick of the whole lot in March, but the game's greatest player still had to perform. He then went out and scored 146 runs, launched 55 homers, had an NL-best 179 OPS+, returned to pitching (and looked unhittable), and generally did things that no one else can do. It all resulted in Ohtani's fourth MVP honor, all of which have been won by unanimous vote.
Just missed: Terry Francona, NL Manager of the Year
Francona did finish in second place for this award. It may have been a distant second, but that's good enough for this spot. A three-time Manager of the Year, Francona took the upstart Reds to the playoffs in his first year on the job in Cincinnati. It was the franchise's first postseason appearance in a non-shortened season since 2013. Francona also celebrated his 2,000th managerial win during the year. He sits 12th on the all-time wins list and will continue his climb past other legendary skippers next season.
It was worth a shot: Alex Cora, AL Manager of the Year
Our voters' choice here coincided with their prediction that the Red Sox would win their division and the AL pennant. That ... did not happen. However, their season did have more positives than negatives. Cora guided Boston to 89 wins -- an eight-win improvement from 2024 -- and its first playoff appearance in four years. Cora logged a fourth-place finish for this award and received one first-place vote.
A whiff: Roki Sasaki, NL Rookie of the Year
You could argue that highlighting Sasaki here is a little unfair since his ROY chances were dashed by a right shoulder impingement in mid-May that sidelined him for more than three months. But his MLB debut season was already a little off the rails by that point. Sasaki owned a 4.72 ERA and a 6.19 FIP through eight starts when he hit the injured list. He displayed very spotty command, registering nearly as many walks (22) as strikeouts (24) in those 34 1/3 frames, and he wasn't inducing much swing-and-miss (20.4% whiff rate).
Sasaki would make an impact in the playoffs as a late-inning reliever for the world champions, but his rookie year left a lot to be desired overall. Los Angeles will hope for much better results from the 24-year-old next season, when he will likely be back in the rotation.