Twins need 'to find a way' to squelch rallies

MINNEAPOLIS -- Squandering one’s inheritance isn’t generally recommended in life, but the Twins would be better off if their relievers would do just that more often.

The Royals scored three runs off starter Randy Dobnak in the fifth inning, but the Twins brought their run total to three with a small rally in the bottom of the seventh. The problem? Minnesota’s season-long issues with inherited runners had just flared up again in the top of the frame, when Dobnak loaded the bases and Cody Stashak allowed them all to score as part of a five-run inning, spurring an 8-3 loss in the series opener on Friday night at Target Field.

Counting Friday’s rally by a scuffling Kansas City offense, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed 40 of 60 inherited runners to score this season, for a 66.7 percent mark that nearly doubles the MLB average of 35 percent and -- though early in the season -- is on pace to set a new single-season record.

“If we're not going to come in and slow them down and really cinch that, and find a way to get through that inning, it is tough to come back after something like that,” manager Rocco Baldelli said.

That’s been part of the challenge for the Twins: If only one of the three inherited runners had scored in the seventh inning, on par with an average bullpen, the game would have stayed within reach. Mitch Garver’s fourth-inning homer extended his hitting streak to seven games as part of his continued bounce-back season, and Minnesota took advantage of wildness by the Royals’ bullpen and a pinch-hit RBI single by rookie Trevor Larnach in the bottom of the seventh.

Instead, that wasn’t enough as the Twins let another starter’s jam spiral out of control for a big inning -- and few members of the relief corps, however effective they’ve been this season, have been immune to that.

“We have some good relievers that have thrown the ball well in clean innings and come in and done a good job for us,” Baldelli said. “I know that's what some of the statistics will tell us, that we have not gotten the job done, coming into innings with people on base. You have to find a way to do that.”

Stashak actually came back out for a clean, eight-pitch inning with two strikeouts and four swinging strikes. But in the seventh, when he inherited a bases-loaded jam, he yielded a two-run double to Whit Merrifield, a sacrifice fly, a walk and two RBI singles to Salvador Perez and Adalberto Mondesi.

Among the core of Minnesota’s bullpen, only Hansel Robles (25 percent) has been better than the MLB average at preventing such runners from scoring. No matter how effective they’ve otherwise been, Tyler Duffey (82 percent), Caleb Thielbar (80 percent), Stashak (67 percent) and Taylor Rogers (63 percent) have all been well worse than MLB average in dealing with messes.

The current single-season record for inherited runners allowed to score is 52.8 percent, set by the Mariners in last year’s shortened campaign. The 2003 Royals hold the full-season record, at 48.7 percent, since the stat started being tracked in 1974.

There is the small sample size caveat for these Twins after roughly a third of the season, but the degree to which it has persisted throughout the bullpen has made it difficult to ignore for Baldelli.

“I do think it, in some ways, does even out,” Baldelli said. “But I think it's not something that we should completely ignore.”

It might help to limit the number of balls put in play, but the Twins’ strikeout rate as a bullpen has gone down from 27.4 percent in 2020, fifth-best in MLB, to 25.5 percent this season. While Duffey’s numbers might be explained by noting that his whiff rate has sharply decreased by nearly 12 percentage points since last year, the other culprits -- Thielbar, Stashak and Rogers -- have actually improved their whiff rates.

Whatever the reason for this trend -- Baldelli suggested a mental component for a reliever entering a non-clean inning -- Friday’s game served as another example of how it impacts games. And for a Twins team that has played more than its share of close games, it can often make a difference in outcomes.

“I mean, the fireman role is not an easy role to play, and as we've seen throughout the years, it's not for everyone,” Baldelli said. “But you've got to trust that your guys can go out there and get the job done.”