Who would Rays prefer to face in ALDS: Red Sox or Yankees?
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The Rays have earned their time off as the best team in the American League this season.
While the Wild Card Series unfolds, Tampa Bay will spend the next few days resting, rehabbing and preparing for the ALDS, which begins Saturday at Tropicana Field. Preparing for whom, exactly? Well, either possibility won't require some deep level of oppositional research.
It will be either the Red Sox or the Yankees, two clubs that the Rays already know plenty well.
It would be a waste of time to ask manager Kevin Cash or any of his players which matchup they would prefer; when you win 98 games and post a .500-or-better record against all but two AL clubs (Baltimore and Detroit), there's an inherent confidence that you can take down any team that stands in your path to the World Series.
But which team should the Rays want to see this weekend? Let's break it down.
Red Sox lineup vs. Yankees lineup
The elephant in the room here is the status of Aaron Judge. The three-time MVP hasn't played since sustaining a moderate right calf strain on Sept. 16. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said last week that the team was "planning on him not being a part" of the Wild Card Series. But nothing has been officially ruled out yet, and Judge has said he plans to be ready for the start of the postseason.
Even so, it's clear that Judge won't be 100% healthy. Who knows if that changes between now and the start of the ALDS, but the possibility of his presence looms as large as his 6-foot-7 frame. Even if he is physically compromised to some extent, Judge at even 70% is better than most -- literally. His career wRC+ is 175, and it's 140 this season (100 is league average).
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Even without their team captain, the Yankees likely still have the best position player on either side in Ben Rice. He ranked fifth this season in wRC+ (149), with a 195 in September. Conversely, of the 103 qualified hitters who posted at least a league-average wRC+ this month, only one is a member of the Red Sox. That's outfielder Roman Anthony, who just made the cut with a 101.
Boston's lineup has its own big injury concern, with Willson Contreras trying to get back into the groove after a bruised right hand cost him eight games down the stretch. He returned for Sunday's regular-season finale and went 0-for-2 with a strikeout before being pulled in the fifth inning.
The Red Sox scuffled at the plate without Contreras and have scored more than four runs just once in their past 17 games. Meanwhile, the only other Red Sox who is even 15% above league average at the plate this season is Mickey Gasper, and he's likely done for the year with a right biceps injury.
These offenses are fairly similar, but the Yankees' corps is a little deeper.
Advantage: New York
Red Sox rotation vs. Yankees rotation
Boston built its team around starting pitching this season, and it has to be pretty pleased with the results.
Left-hander Payton Tolle has had a fantastic rookie season, with 171 strikeouts over 148 2/3 innings and a 2.66 ERA across his final 13 starts. Offseason trade acquisition Sonny Gray recorded a 2.72 ERA over 169 frames in his age-36 season. Free-agent add Ranger Suarez rebounded from a few rough early starts and is pitching some of his best ball right now, with only three earned runs allowed over four starts this month (24 2/3 innings).
Just think if this staff had Garrett Crochet in the mix.
Last year's AL Cy Young runner-up has been out since April due to left shoulder inflammation, but he did throw live batting practice last week and is closing in on a return. However, any impact Crochet makes will likely come in relief, and we'll get to that shortly.
Regardless, Boston has a solid trio of starters for the ALDS. But none of them are Cam Schlittler.
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The AL Cy Young favorite just finished one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher in the Yankees' storied history, highlighted by 25 starts in which he allowed no more than one earned run. He will get the ball for Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series on Tuesday, which puts him on regular rest for Sunday's Game 2 of the ALDS at the Trop. With the off-days baked into that series, he would be on turn again for a decisive Game 5.
The Yankees' rotation is much more than one man. Max Fried has persevered past multiple left elbow bone bruises this season to log a 2.80 ERA in 112 2/3 frames. He also hasn't allowed more than one run in seven of his past eight starts. The Yankees could then give the ball in the ALDS to Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodón, who had his best start of the year his last time out -- against the Rays.
Boston's rotation is stellar. But the prospect of facing Schlittler twice in a five-game series is something every team, including Tampa Bay, would like to avoid.
Advantage: New York
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Red Sox bullpen vs. Yankees bullpen
This one isn't all that close. The Red Sox's relief crew ranks first in ERA (3.00), second in FanGraphs WAR (8.0) and fifth in strikeout-minus-walk rate (15.2%). The Yanks rank second, 13th and 15th, respectively.
New York's high-leverage arms -- David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn -- are not bad by any means. But they can't overwhelm the opposition like what the Red Sox have in the likes of the ageless Aroldis Chapman or Garrett Whitlock, whose 25.3% K-BB rate is tied for eighth among qualified relievers this year. Midseason pickup Erik Miller had been really good for Boston before some recent stumbles. Still, he has struck out 29 batters in 18 2/3 innings since being acquired from San Francisco prior to the Trade Deadline.
And the power coming out of Boston's bullpen could be augmented by Crochet. Which lineup wants to see him for an inning or two in a pivotal October matchup?
Advantage: Boston
Anything else?
The Rays will have home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs. That's a huge edge for a club that went 55-26 as hosts this season. But it's perhaps even greater if the Red Sox make it through to the divisional round.
Since the start of 2021, Boston is 10-29 at Tropicana Field. That includes a 1-5 record this year with 15 total runs scored. Only the Marlins (3-9) have a worse record among teams that have faced the Rays at least 10 times in their home park over the past six seasons. During that time, the Red Sox's offense has batted .202 with a .587 OPS. They just scored two runs on Sunday at the Trop -- and they weren't even facing the regular tenants.
It's not like the Yankees have been pounding the baseball either in St. Petersburg, Fla., over the same span; they have gone 17-21 with a .637 OPS. But Tampa Bay has had more success at home against the Red Sox. Maybe they provide the easier route for the Rays to advance to the ALCS.
Ultimately, however, the Junior Circuit's top team won't care about any of that once the first pitch is delivered Saturday.