'Magic elixir' eludes up-and-down Reds

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- As Generations Z or Alpha might say, the Reds have been mid. However, the standings largely have shown that they've actually been mid as a quintessential .500 club so far in 2025. No cap.

Right now, Cincinnati is two games below .500, at 30-32. The season high is three games over .500, when they were 18-15 at the end of play on May 2. The club has been four games below .500 three times. The Reds have sat exactly at .500 on 13 occasions. The record is 33 by the 2011 Blue Jays, who finished at .500 at 81-81.

While the Reds have been stuck in a .500 area vortex for much of this season, three National League Central rivals -- the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers -- are pulling away. How does Cincinnati break free and start gaining momentum?

“Believe me, if there was a magic elixir, I would do it," Reds manager Terry Francona said.

In the modern era (since 1900). There have been 57 NL and American League clubs to finish with exact .500 records. That includes the Reds in 1996, 1942 and 1902.

At home, the Reds' record is 15-15. On the road, it is 15-17. The record against teams with winning records is 16-18. The Reds are 11-10 against AL clubs. Their run differential of +31 would be closer to zero had it not been for a 24-2 rout of the Orioles on April 20.

On defense, the Reds' outs above average mark is 0. While better than the -15 posted last year, they aren't making a difference in the ground covered.

“We all know one big run can really get you going in the right direction for a majority of the season," closer Emilio Pagán said. "It’s frustrating to win one, lose one, win two, lose two. As long as we stay focused on each individual day, that’s how you end up running that eight- to 10-game winning streak.

“If you’re trying to win the game a week from now, you’re not prepared enough for today.”

The Reds haven't had many long win streaks. They won five in a row twice, and the last time was May 15-19. But they've also avoided the long losing streaks. Their highest is four, done two times.

The Cardinals have remained contenders because of their nine-game winning streak from May 4-12. The Brewers had won eight in a row until the Reds' 4-2 victory Tuesday was secured by TJ Friedl's home run robbery on the final play.

“We definitely want to get more on the winning side and not be in the hole as much or feel like we have to catch up every time we go out to play," ace Hunter Greene said. "It’s a difficult game, and we’re trying to do our best. It’s continuing to put one foot in front of the other and work and make those strides when it counts.”

Under former manager David Bell, the Reds ripped off 12 straight wins from June 10-23, 2023, tying a franchise record while saving their season. They went from six below .500 (29-35) to six games above .500 (41-35) before finishing 82-80 and just missing the playoffs.

“That’s what it’s going to take to be able to get back into contention and get in the conversation, a stretch like that,” Greene said. “Which I think we’re definitely capable of. But you can’t talk about it -- you’ve got to do it.”

Cincinnati's rotation -- with a 3.57 ERA this season -- is one of the reasons longer losing streaks have been avoided. But there are reasons behind the lack of long winning streaks.

Much of it comes down to not being able to stage comebacks, or an inability to win close games or to win in the late innings. The Reds are 0-24 when trailing after six innings, 0-26 after seven and 0-27 when trailing after eight.

“It’s making me crazy," Francona said. "It’s not because our guys have lost energy. They’re not pouting. We just haven’t figured it out.”

The Reds are 5-10 in one-run games and 0-5 in extra innings. There is often no margin for mistakes.

It's not April anymore, and the Reds will need to get on a run to avoid becoming Trade Deadline sellers on their way to another season without postseason games.

Just being a .500 team won't help them get there.

“We are who we are right now. We’re a .500 team," Pagán said. "We have the talent and ability, and we’re definitely doing the preparing to go on a run. We’ve just got to go do it. It’s really as simple as that.”